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  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by mshierlaw View Post
    I have read a lot of this on kiwi saver providers websites. So how much of an opportunity do you loose if your not IN during the downturn?

    My kiwi saver started in early 2008, 100% growth so it's a reasonable ballance. Looking at the new $$$$$ going in for 1 year it's 5% of the current account ballance (excluding fees & tax). That 5% additional buying opportunity does not excite me compared to the potential reduction in my account ballance.

    A switch to conservative looks appealing if you can time the switch, thats the hard bit.
    Actually the switch back is probably harder to time.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Even in a downturn however severe, it's easy to forget that there is a constant stream of income flowing into the Kiwisaver providers, which has to go into their investment portfolios, including stocks. So when one stops exposure to stocks in whatever parts of their portfolio, to avoid the paper losses, they also forego the fact that the Kiwisaver provider continues investing in lower priced shares during a downturn.

    Personally I used to think Kiwisaver was something I should actively manage, by changing portfolio spreads, but I've come around to thinking it's better to just choose the portfolio spread/balance that suits me overall and forget about it, and let time do it's magic thing.

    Not necessarily true. In times of panic, people will be switching out of growth funds and into cash/conservative. If this is the case, a shrinking fund needs to realise assets to pay out redemptions. No cheap shares will be bought at the bottom, as all that cash will be required to fund the redemptions. In fact it's more likely that the fund manager will have to sell at the bottom.

    One of the pitfalls of unitised structures is that your are beholden to the behaviour of other investors.

  3. #48
    Senior Member Toulouse - Luzern's Avatar
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    Smile Interesting Strategy and a couple of questions

    [QUOTE=heisenberg;731518]OP is a good example of momentum investment. I do a similar thing with my investment in the AMP Global Shares Index Fund. That fund mirrors the MSCI World Index, so each month I check the 200 DMA and if it sits below the price, I remain in the fund. If the price is below the DMA then I move to cash/bonds. As we’ve been in a bull market I’ve only had to swap out a few times, but I get the feeling this may become more frequent with the current economic climate.

    Hi Helsenberg

    Time for us to think about what's next for portfolio protection ...


    1 What is OP please?


    2 Can you give a URL link for either AMP Global shares Index Fund with 200 DMA or MSCI World Index with 200 DMA.

    I have google searched for these a few times without success.


    Did you consider 100 or 30 DMA?


    Thanks and regards
    Last edited by Toulouse - Luzern; 19-10-2018 at 08:38 AM. Reason: punctuation

  4. #49
    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    Where did you invest your kiwi saver and retirement money?

    Individual stocks
    Different types of funds
    100% cash fund
    Others

    I am in 100% cash fund as I didn’t want to take extra risk from my retirement funds. I found in some situation even cash fund could become risky. Therefore, I am hoping to put entire money into individual stocks and looking for a quality retirement funds provider. Is it a risky decision? Thanks.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 07-01-2019 at 04:54 PM.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valuegrowth View Post
    Where did you invest your kiwi saver and retirement money?

    Individual stocks
    Different types of funds
    100% cash fund
    Others

    I am in 100% cash fund as I didn’t want to take extra risk from my retirement funds. I found in some situation even cash fund could become risky. Therefore, I am hoping to put entire money into individual stocks and looking for a quality retirement funds provider. Is it a risky decision? Thanks.
    On Kiwisaver, 100% on All Growth funds ever since.
    Retirement money, 85% on TD, the rest on P2P.
    And still fully invested on the Market too. Wouldn't change a thing to this strategy. I retired late last year too.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valuegrowth View Post
    Where did you invest your kiwi saver and retirement money?

    Individual stocks
    Different types of funds
    100% cash fund
    Others

    I am in 100% cash fund as I didn’t want to take extra risk from my retirement funds. I found in some situation even cash fund could become risky. Therefore, I am hoping to put entire money into individual stocks and looking for a quality retirement funds provider. Is it a risky decision? Thanks.
    KS all in active growth..Bear markets appear to only last less than 2 years so I find its imperative that I have 2 years of liquidity(mainly revolving credit facility) without selling any investments.
    My view is your investment risk is highest if you have long term term deposits.What will your term deposit be worth in 10,20,30 years?.Will it have kept up with inflation?

  7. #52
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    KS all in active growth..Bear markets appear to only last less than 2 years so I find its imperative that I have 2 years of liquidity(mainly revolving credit facility) without selling any investments.
    My view is your investment risk is highest if you have long term term deposits.What will your term deposit be worth in 10,20,30 years?.Will it have kept up with inflation?
    Yes KS all in active growth with me too
    but hey Kiora, just so you know it took 24 years for the high of 1929 to be broken.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    Yes KS all in active growth with me too
    but hey Kiora, just so you know it took 24 years for the high of 1929 to be broken.
    That's why good to diversify into primary industries,land as well as shares.Seems to be farming up,share markets down or farming down share markets up.Just that primary industry investments tend to be less liquid so need 2 years of liquidity to offset.

  9. #54
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    Has anyone done comparisons of Kiwi Saver fund performance to overseas ETF funds such as the Vanguard ETFs? I would be interested to know if Kiwi Saver funds have outperformed US ETFs holding equities.

    I'm keen on knowing the impact of the upcoming 'capital gains tax' that would have on NZX shares and Kiwi Saver funds?

  10. #55
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    Superlife, Simplicity and ASB (and maybe others) invest directly in Vanguard funds, so the returns will just reflect their own fees, the PIE tax and any gains/losses from their currency hedging strategy (if applicable)

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by huxley View Post
    Superlife, Simplicity and ASB (and maybe others) invest directly in Vanguard funds, so the returns will just reflect their own fees, the PIE tax and any gains/losses from their currency hedging strategy (if applicable)
    That defeats the purpose and looks like double dipping. Good reason why I told wifey to keep opting out of Kiwi Saver.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Moved to 100% Conservative with Kiwisaver about a week ago. Looked at the returns in the Milford fund and was around 6% over the last year - no doubt helped by currency.

    Question is whether current turbulence is just a few bumps, or on the way to a bigger correction. But went for capital preservation in the meantime.
    So Bob, did you buy back in to growth funds?

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toulouse - Luzern View Post
    Hi Helsenberg

    Time for us to think about what's next for portfolio protection ...


    1 What is OP please?


    2 Can you give a URL link for either AMP Global shares Index Fund with 200 DMA or MSCI World Index with 200 DMA.

    I have google searched for these a few times without success.


    Did you consider 100 or 30 DMA?


    Thanks and regards
    Hi and sorry about slow reply.
    OP means 'original post', nothing to do with investment.

    I use barchart to get the 200 DMA data: https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/...nical-analysis

    As you can see the price is below the 200 DMA therefore last month I switched to cash/bonds.

    The 30 DMA would likely be much too volatile and require lots more frequent changes of position. The 100 could work, however from the back testing of this strategy I have seen, the 200 seems to be the sweet spot where you are doing less admin for maximal profit.

    Hope that helps.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBQ View Post
    That defeats the purpose and looks like double dipping. Good reason why I told wifey to keep opting out of Kiwi Saver.
    Why not get wifey to contribute $ 20 a week , and pick up the tax rebate of circa $ 520 form the govt ??? Not many investments give you 50 % return ........

  15. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBQ View Post
    That defeats the purpose and looks like double dipping. Good reason why I told wifey to keep opting out of Kiwi Saver.
    Well that would be the dumbest advice she has ever received.

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