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Thread: PAZ Pharma Zen

  1. #781
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Up 9% to a new high 60c, expectations largely priced in atpit. Little vol, looks like many have this one tightly held, i sure have, imo one of a select few to ride through these covid times and come out on top and to sleep easy with.
    At 60c we're still only on fwd looking PE of 23-25 for FY21 in my view. Still a very good price for such a fast growth company that has doubled profit 2 years in a row and looking at a very good FY21 with the increased production capacity fully operational.

  2. #782
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Up 9% to a new high 60c, expectations largely priced in atpit. Little vol, looks like many have this one tightly held, i sure have, imo one of a select few to ride through these covid times and come out on top and to sleep easy with.
    Agree. Yes, tightly held, only 218m shares issued and directors, collectively, hold around 100m of them! I hold a miniscule number!

  3. #783
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    At 60c we're still only on fwd looking PE of 23-25 for FY21 in my view. Still a very good price for such a fast growth company that has doubled profit 2 years in a row and looking at a very good FY21 with the increased production capacity fully operational.
    I have normalized this result for Covid by assuming they simply broke even during lockdown in April. 6/5 x $2.9m gives $3.5m, i.e. (Estimated Covid effect $600K before tax)
    Last year second half profit was 22% higher and I think with new product ranges coming on stream its quite conservative to forecast 2H profit for FY20 as $3.5m x 1.22 = $4.3m which gives a forecasted FY20 net profit before tax of $2.9m + $4.3m = $7.2m or more importantly looking at profitability going forward from there a normalized FY20 result for Covid effect of $7.8m before tax or $5.6m after tax which on 218.8m shares gives eps of 2.56 cps, approx 95% gain on FY19.

    On that basis at 60 cents the shares trade on a forward PE of 23 so I concur with your workings and I also agree that the prospects for growth going forward in FY21 and beyond are very encouraging to say the least. For a company growing earnings per share at around 100% per annum (assuming they meet my profit expectations for FY20) and having superb growth prospects going forward I think a PE of 23 is on the cheap, bordering on very cheap side and I would think if this was listed on the main board the market would accord them a PE considerably higher than 23, possibly 40+.

    Prior to today's result I had been modelling eps for FY20 of 1.8 - 2.0 cps and thought about 50 cents was fair value. This result taking into account all the effects of Covid (not just the specific lockdown effects in April), significantly exceeded my expectations. How many companies do you know of that can grow earnings per share in the six month period of Covid 19 at 57% !...for goodness sake that's absolutely remarkable !

    Disc: Topped up a few more today at 55 cents because I think they're worth at least 60 cents.
    Last edited by Beagle; 06-08-2020 at 04:06 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  4. #784
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I have normalized this result for Covid by assuming they simply broke even during lockdown in April. 6/5 x $2.9m gives $3.5m, i.e. (Estimated Covid effect $600K before tax)
    Last year second half profit was 22% higher and I think with new product ranges coming on stream its quite conservative to forecast 2H profit for FY20 as $3.5m x 1.22 = $4.3m which gives a forecasted FY20 net profit before tax of $2.9m + $4.3m = $7.2m or more importantly looking at profitability going forward from there a normalized FY20 result for Covid effect of $7.8m before tax or $5.6m after tax which on 218.8m shares gives eps of 2.56 cps, approx 95% gain on FY19.

    On that basis at 60 cents the shares trade on a forward PE of 23 so I concur with your workings and I also agree that the prospects for growth going forward in FY21 and beyond are very encouraging to say the least. For a company growing earnings per share at around 100% per annum (assuming they meet my profit expectations for FY20) and having superb growth prospects going forward I think a PE of 23 is on the cheap, bordering on very cheap side and I would think if this was listed on the main board the market would accord them a PE considerably higher than 23, possibly 40+.

    Prior to today's result I had been modelling eps for FY20 of 1.8 - 2.0 cps and thought about 50 cents was fair value. This result taking into account all the effects of Covid (not just the specific lockdown effects in April), significantly exceeded my expectations. How many companies do you know of that can grow earnings per share in the six month period of Covid 19 at 57% !...for goodness sake that's absolutely remarkable !

    Disc: Topped up a few more today at 55 cents because I think they're worth at least 60 cents.
    Thank you for sharing.
    Yes their growth rate makes their PE ratio look ,[do not know the words I am looking for,] either modest or very reasonable.
    Growth rate higher than their PE is great safety factor for investors.
    Last edited by percy; 06-08-2020 at 06:39 PM.

  5. #785
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Thank you for sharing.
    Yes their growth rate makes their PE ratio look ,[do not know the words I am looking for,] either modest or very reasonable.
    Growth rate higher than their PE is great safety factor for investors.
    eps growth rate FY19 111%, my forecast growth rate FY20 95% = average growth rate of 103%.
    Forward PE is 23 so they are on a PEG ratio of 23/103 = 0.22.

    (Anyone who doesn't understand PEG ratio's should google the term and do some homework)

    A PEG ratio of 1 is very cheap in this market with interest rates at historic lows. A PEG ratio of 0.5 is an extraordinary opportunity and a PEG ratio of just 0.22 is just absurd value (wake me up I must be dreaming)... which is why I bought more today and very gladly contributed to volume being 11 times the daily average (the highest volume in many months)
    Last edited by Beagle; 06-08-2020 at 07:02 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  6. #786
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Thanks for posting this Percy. I wasn't even checking it as I expected this tomorrow. This result is absolutely outstanding. What is even more exciting is the bullish outlook and drive for further growth with new and increased production capacity for current products and others "still under wraps" !!

    Despite great profits to fund the growth, clearly they will need to get more funding. They talk about a "strategic partner" in such a way that one has to assume this is already well advanced !
    Hopefully they will also come to SH for some more cash. I most certainly would be happy to help in a small way to fund this great business.
    I see the strategic partner as a positive move, I am hoping this partnership should help with building a moat around the business. I am curious as to who this may be, my guess is a supplier of raw materials. With the margins being made from what is basically other businesses waste material they need to secure this supply and reduce potential competition. Speaking to Craig at the AGM a couple of years ago he saw JV's as one of there options for growth and securing supply.
    The manufacturing is capital intensive, therefore sharing that load and guarantee supply is a win win, while focusing on the marketing and brand.
    As for the results. - very happy exceeded my expectations, I like others didn't expect this strong for the 2020 year.
    Yes Percy - we did meet at the AGM last year - pretty sure next years meeting will be more than the 10 of us sitting around the table in a BNZ meeting room. I am pleased to see this company getting the attention it deserves.
    Disc. Wish I owned more and have no interest in selling anytime soon.

  7. #787
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rocky145 View Post
    I see the strategic partner as a positive move, I am hoping this partnership should help with building a moat around the business. I am curious as to who this may be, my guess is a supplier of raw materials. With the margins being made from what is basically other businesses waste material they need to secure this supply and reduce potential competition. Speaking to Craig at the AGM a couple of years ago he saw JV's as one of there options for growth and securing supply.
    The manufacturing is capital intensive, therefore sharing that load and guarantee supply is a win win, while focusing on the marketing and brand.
    As for the results. - very happy exceeded my expectations, I like others didn't expect this strong for the 2020 year.
    Yes Percy - we did meet at the AGM last year - pretty sure next years meeting will be more than the 10 of us sitting around the table in a BNZ meeting room. I am pleased to see this company getting the attention it deserves.
    Disc. Wish I owned more and have no interest in selling anytime soon.
    A good post and welcome to the forum.
    I have also been thinking that it would be great if a new strategic partner is a reliable raw materials supplier. With the growth forecast in production, the raw material supply will potentially be a weak link. It would be great if they can secure this supply and as you say, focus on production, marketing a development of further products.

  8. #788
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rocky145 View Post
    I see the strategic partner as a positive move, I am hoping this partnership should help with building a moat around the business. I am curious as to who this may be, my guess is a supplier of raw materials. With the margins being made from what is basically other businesses waste material they need to secure this supply and reduce potential competition. Speaking to Craig at the AGM a couple of years ago he saw JV's as one of there options for growth and securing supply.
    The manufacturing is capital intensive, therefore sharing that load and guarantee supply is a win win, while focusing on the marketing and brand.
    As for the results. - very happy exceeded my expectations, I like others didn't expect this strong for the 2020 year.
    Yes Percy - we did meet at the AGM last year - pretty sure next years meeting will be more than the 10 of us sitting around the table in a BNZ meeting room. I am pleased to see this company getting the attention it deserves.
    Disc. Wish I owned more and have no interest in selling anytime soon.
    I remember you.
    Welcome to the forum.
    Look forward to you posting often.

  9. #789
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    Anyone want to test some of the company product ,it is on sale currently . Going to try some of the Blackcurrant and bone joint ones personally.
    https://www.chemistwarehouse.co.nz/s...ine/4467/aiora

    DISC : Holding

  10. #790
    Doggedly sniffing out more food Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Anyone want to test some of the company product ,it is on sale currently . Going to try some of the Blackcurrant and bone joint ones personally.
    https://www.chemistwarehouse.co.nz/s...ine/4467/aiora

    DISC : Holding
    Thanks, I'm going to do the same. I reckon blackcurrants are an awesome super food. In an ideal world I'd have some fresh ones every day.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  11. #791
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Anyone want to test some of the company product ,it is on sale currently . Going to try some of the Blackcurrant and bone joint ones personally.
    https://www.chemistwarehouse.co.nz/s...ine/4467/aiora

    DISC : Holding
    Haha. I put in an order yesterday. Thought it timely to sample some of our products.

  12. #792
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    Glad I bought into PAZ last week - thank you Percy. Probably paid about 40 cps more than should of but long-time lurker on this stock and I had some confusion with Botryzen.

    Great result and very pleased to see continued traction. My feeling is that the forecast for FY seems a little on the conservative side - but happy with that and the under-promise/over-deliver mantra.

    Seems they have their ducks in a row with production and future proofing for capacity - which is excellent, and obviously have the knowledge & capability in their processing.

    Linking back into the supply chain seems wise - and think I have an inkling on the red meat side, but important especially if seeing continued growth in volumes - need raw material to process. Probably more importantly is the marketing, and has to be best in class (no judgement on this). I look to Blis and believe undoubtedly would have been alot more advanced had their marketing been better. If they have raw material, can process it then just leaves selling it - and those margins will start to get even juicier as volumes increase......

  13. #793
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    Very impressive buying since the last report was released , 146,000 shares traded today on top of the 350,000 shares traded yesterday, word is getting out that PAZ has a substantial business and one for the future.

  14. #794
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    Good to see good healthy two way business being done. Makes price discovery for any possible placement a lot easier.
    Last edited by Beagle; 07-08-2020 at 09:21 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  15. #795
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    Bought some stuff to help with the algorithm, be a bonus if it works.

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