Hi Austen,
WOW !!
I am modelling up this stock's eps for FY20
What do you think of these two assumptions ?
1. During the lockdown of April when sales reduced 45% for the month they probably only broke even for that month so the first half normalized profit would be 6/5 x $2.9m = $3.5m.
2. Last year second half net profit was 22% higher than first half. Considering new product launches then second half should be
at least 22% higher than the normalized first half so second half profit should be normalized first half $3.5m x 1.22 = $4.3m so I get a full year profit forecast of $2.9m + $4.3m = $7.2m, which if we normalize this for the effects of Covid in the first half gives a normalized profit for FY20 of $3.5m + $4.3m = $7.8m.
$7.8m less tax = $5.6m = 2.6 cps, just on double last year which was more than double the year before that.
At the last traded price in decent volume of 55 cents PAZ appears to be on a forward normalized PE of 55 / 2.6 = just 21.
That seems very cheap considering their growth rate and outlook. Whoever bought more at 60 cents this morning is brave but probably very clever as FY21's profit could be an absolute cracker !!
Thanks again for putting me on to this stock, HUGELY appreciated.
Cheers
Roger
__________________________________________________ _______________________________________
I can not understand how they keep the momentum up.
"we
have also faced supply chain challenges, exchange rate volatility and difficulties accessing technical
support from our international network of equipment suppliers,”
I appreciate your figures.I think you are spot on taking the right approach of their April downturn.
As you noted second half is always a lot higher.
Funny although 22% to 23% higher seems a lot it could be even higher.
I think your looking more at next year and the following year is right.
Bookmarks