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Thread: PAZ Pharma Zen

  1. #961
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    I do not know why they do not just value them at $1.00 like I do.Would save them a lot of time mucking about changing the price,and their clients would know what PAZ shares will be sometime soon in the not too distant future.!!...lol.
    You are extremely "well positioned" Percy!!

  2. #962
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    You are extremely "well positioned" Percy!!
    And well deserved

  3. #963
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    You are extremely "well positioned" Percy!!
    Yes. Thank you Percy for bringing this share to our attention . As a later comer I am glad this looks to have turned out well.

  4. #964
    percy
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    Beat the Bank.Thank you and others.I would have to have left town if PAZ had not worked out.!!..lol.
    Hard to know what is current fair value for PAZ shares.55 cents appears to be too low,while 80 cents appears to be too high.We may get a better idea when we see their latest result late February or early March,but I think more likely when they give their outlook statement at their agm in May.
    A lot of challenges,with shipping in and out of NZ.Getting overseas skilled technicians into the country to install new equipment.Just getting getting new plant here.
    Then it is getting the plant up and producing.These freeze driers are huge,about the size of a milk tanker.PAZ have two of them at Port Hills Road with another there and about to be installed .[and they also have a couple of smaller ones]
    Then we have a new factory at Rolleston being started on,and after that a second factory at Rolleston.
    Offcourse the strength of the NZ $ makes selling overseas hard, as does the fact PAZ can not call on their customers.
    Yet with The Cibus Fund coming onboard PAZ can progress with all their expansion plans.
    Going back to the current share price.I do not know fair value is .What I do know is that in 2 or 3 years time it will be substantially higher,as PAZ have a record of doing what they say they will do.
    Last edited by percy; 23-01-2021 at 02:27 PM.

  5. #965
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    Good post Percy. Agree its very hard to put a value on these but for what its worth I will opine on the matter. I last topped up in August 2020 at 55 cents and clearly at that time I thought that was good buying.

    I think the issue of a modest number of shares has very seriously accelerated their growth prospects and we should see earnings growth continue at a very fast pace for the next few years. Months ago I was of the opinion we would be looking at something like a covid adjusted eps of 2.5 cps for FY20. I've trimmed those expectations back a bit with the exchange rate and freight and logistics challenges and expect something more like 2.2 cps. I'd be very surprised if we're not looking at around 3.0 cps earnings for FY21 and a forward PE of 30 is not unreasonable for a company growing earnings at a very fast pace and forecast to do so for the foreseeable future. I see fair value at 90 cents subject to confirmation of not less than eps of 2.0 cps for FY20, up from 1.31 cps in FY19. I am awaiting confirmation of strong earnings growth in FY20 with a view towards adding to my position.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.

  6. #966
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    Good ponderings Beagle.
    You are correct it is quite hard to value these at the moment. As you said, PAZ has raised capital to fund the huge capacity increase they have planned. But this could have been funded locally so my interest will be to see what the Cibus Fund will bring to the table in addition to the cash. Clearly the Directors hold high hopes for this "partnership" so we need to wait and let the results of them being onboard do the talking. Clearly the increased product quantities need to be sold so hopefully this is where they will show us their worth !
    One thing is clear though, the growth plan is very significant and if they can prosecute it well, the current price will be regarded as very cheap in the next couple of years. I think for now we are in a "wait & see" mode and I don;t expect any big upwards movement in the SP until we have confirmation of their plans actually working.

  7. #967
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    Fair comment Iceman. I can't help myself trying to see around the next corner though, (an occupational hazard for me).
    One thing I have noticed in the past with other companies is the economies of scale that can come with a major expansion of product lines, (head office and management costs for example amortized over a much greater sales base), can lead to quite startling eps growth.

    Sifting through the very few tea leaves that exist, one could very easily be forgiven for thinking that with such a major expansion of the pet side of things planned they must have got some very positive customer feedback from their China Trade show. Pet Supplements apparently a fast growing industry. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sponsored...E4BI7DRAEPLNQ/
    Last edited by Beagle; 02-02-2021 at 07:22 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.

  8. #968
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    Further announcement re capital raise:

    Additional_Market_Information.pdf (usx.co.nz)

  9. #969
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Sifting through the very few tea leaves that exist, one could very easily be forgiven for thinking that with such a major expansion of the pet side of things planned they must have got some very positive customer feedback from their China Trade show. Pet Supplements apparently a fast growing industry. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sponsored...E4BI7DRAEPLNQ/
    That link is sponsored so is actually advertising not journalism. (Just sayin)

    Note that major holders can reduce their holding within escrow period. 5% of what exactly? - 'their own holding' would be the correct answer - presumably not 5% of shares on issue though the statement Sideshow Bob links to isnt explicit.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  10. #970
    percy
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    https://www.avenues.net.nz/all-stori...after-yourself
    This article is in today's Avenue magazine, which came with our "Press" newspaper this morning.
    Going to aiora.com I see aiora range is now being stocked by not only The Chemist Warehouse,but also Pharmacy Direct and Bargain Chemist.
    All positive.
    Last edited by percy; 26-02-2021 at 08:16 AM.

  11. #971
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    Thanks Percy.
    Website https://www.aioranz.com/
    Stockists https://www.aioranz.com/stockists/
    Blackcurrants benefits - https://www.aioranz.com/research/blackcurrant-research/
    I found this study very interesting https://www.aioranz.com/evidence-bui...lood-pressure/
    Feedback - I have been taking the vascular and vision blackcurrant supplements for a few months now and I have found significantly reduced eye strain and clearer vision and the other day on my check up at the doctor he remarked that my blood pressure was the best its been in years !

    Its great to see them spreading their distribution network and I am looking forward to the annual result and outlook in the next month or so. Their website and supporting articles looks like top class work to me. Very impressive stuff.
    Last edited by Beagle; 27-02-2021 at 08:01 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.

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