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Thread: PAZ Pharma Zen

  1. #821
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Beat the Bank - I love your user handle, well chosen and welcome on board with PAZ. For what its worth I bough more GNE yesterday, expected gross yield 7.5% and got back into HLG today at $4.12, expected gross yield 9%, both bought for yield with term deposit money that had matured that the bank "kindly" offered to reinvest for me at 1.5%.

    Speaking of beating the bank, (which won't be hard in this instance), I have some more money maturing next month of Kiwibonds and was "completely blown away" by their "outstanding" reinvestment rate offer of 0.25% per annum (that's not a typo !!!!!)...so I need to come up with some more idea's and will run the ruler over Blis in due course.

    Those coming on board at ~ 55 cents with PAZ have got themselves a real bargain in my view. My forecast is for eps of 2.4 - 2.5 cps this year up 90-100% on last year which itself was up over 100%. Forward PE at 55 cents is just 22 times for a company growing earnings at 100% per annum. That's quite frankly ridiculous, (normal for a market PE of over 50 for a company growing at 100%) and I expect the shares to hit $1 before the end of 2021.
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-08-2020 at 04:31 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  2. #822
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=couta1;837343]Topped up my last big lot at an avg price of 46.9c about 3 weeks before results come out courtesy of what appeared to be an estate sell down. PS-Beagle just keep your dirty paws off that sell button for at least 3 yrs, repeat to yourself, I must not sell over and over whilst looking in a mirror.[/QUOTE]

    Dirty paws I love it You're quite right me ol mate. It might also be useful to tell myself while looking side on to the mirror with my fat belly fully extended, you don't need another big feed anytime soon
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-08-2020 at 04:35 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #823
    percy
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    Half page advert in today's Mainlander section of The Press ,for PAZ's AiOra range.
    All 50% off at The Chemist Warehouse.

  4. #824
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Thanks for the reminder mate.
    I just ordered a couple of the blackcurrant vascular, calcium and gut and brain ones and a bunch of other supplants and other vitamins from other manufacturers because I am fat and lazy and need all the support I can get Its not hard to spend $200+ at the Chemist warehouse !
    Last edited by Beagle; 22-08-2020 at 11:58 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  5. #825
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Half page advert in today's Mainlander section of The Press ,for PAZ's AiOra range.
    All 50% off at The Chemist Warehouse.
    Pity we can’t get 50% off the share price

  6. #826
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Pity we can’t get 50% off the share price
    They ran that sale last year lol...sorry couldn't resist.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  7. #827
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Beat the Bank - I love your user handle, well chosen and welcome on board with PAZ. For what its worth I bough more GNE yesterday, expected gross yield 7.5% and got back into HLG today at $4.12, expected gross yield 9%, both bought for yield with term deposit money that had matured that the bank "kindly" offered to reinvest for me at 1.5%.

    Speaking of beating the bank, (which won't be hard in this instance), I have some more money maturing next month of Kiwibonds and was "completely blown away" by their "outstanding" reinvestment rate offer of 0.25% per annum (that's not a typo !!!!!)...so I need to come up with some more idea's and will run the ruler over Blis in due course.

    Those coming on board at ~ 55 cents with PAZ have got themselves a real bargain in my view. My forecast is for eps of 2.4 - 2.5 cps this year up 90-100% on last year which itself was up over 100%. Forward PE for FY20 at 55 cents is just 22 times for a company growing earnings at 100% per annum. That's quite frankly ridiculous, (normal for a market PE of over 50 for a company growing at 100%) and I expect the shares to hit $1 before the end of 2021.
    Looks like the NZX is compromised for a while. Pretty sure the unlisted market is still working...might be worth revisiting the above post...some very nice gains I've had on GNE and HLG in just 9 days since that post...PAZ next ? If a company is growing earnings at 100% per annum then the shares are worth about 8% more each month. Hmmm...maybe we should be thinking about FY21 and FY22 earnings ?

    P.S. Box from Chemist Warehouse arrived today choc-a-bloc full of PAZ goodies. Took one of everything with my lunch and I'm feeling super pumped !!
    Last edited by Beagle; 27-08-2020 at 02:12 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #828
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.aioranz.com/ These things really work !
    I felt super yesterday afternoon...was almost bouncing off the walls and couldn't get my mind to stop thinking until just after midnight.
    So effective its probably best to take them in the morning with breakfast so you can get to sleep at your normal bedtime.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  9. #829
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    [QUOTE=Beagle;839875]https://www.aioranz.com/ These things really work !
    I felt super yesterday afternoon...was almost bouncing off the walls and couldn't get my mind to stop thinking until just after midnight.

    Thanks for your comments Beagle. I hear that the Cannasouth product can assist with dealing to both the medicinal and financial highs you get from PAZ

  10. #830
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    [QUOTE=Beat the Bank;840373]
    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.aioranz.com/ These things really work !
    I felt super yesterday afternoon...was almost bouncing off the walls and couldn't get my mind to stop thinking until just after midnight.

    Thanks for your comments Beagle. I hear that the Cannasouth product can assist with dealing to both the medicinal and financial highs you get from PAZ
    Post of the week :-) Have a good weekend !!

  11. #831
    percy
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    [

    Thanks for your comments Beagle. I hear that the Cannasouth product can assist with dealing to both the medicinal and financial highs you get from PAZ[/QUOTE]

    Agree with Iceman.
    Post of the week.

  12. #832
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    Quite a few parcels of 20-25k shares been snapped up when offered over the last couple of weeks. Percy has given a likely explanation for this on the Skyline thread. Clearly shows that 53-55c range being a current floor on the SP that will hopefully hold until we get more announcements in March-April next year.
    Last edited by iceman; 16-09-2020 at 11:35 AM.

  13. #833
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    Beagle I would like to query you on your FY20 EPS estimates, would you care to share your assumptions?

    To get an EPS of 2.4 cps they would need Revenue of circa 25million, assuming EBITDA and NPAT margins were inline with HY20 results and no dilution. Given guidance is "At least" 21million and EBITDA of 7.4 million giving an implied EBITDA margin of 35.2% which indicates a softening of margin for the second half I can't see 2.4 cps as being realistic.

    My estimate for FY20 EPS ranges from 1.7 (conservative) to 2.1 cps (Bull case) so 30-62% EPS growth

    Conservative
    Revenue 21,000,000
    EBITDA 7,400,000 (Implied margin guidance)
    NPAT 3,549,000 (NPAT margin 16.9%)
    EPS 1.7 cps

    Bull case
    Revenue 22,000,000
    EBITDA 8,333,800 (margin inline with HY20)
    NPAT 4,466,000 (margin inline with HY20) EPS 2.1 cps


    Of course I'm happy to be proven wrong (On the upside)
    Last edited by Caribbean; 18-09-2020 at 04:31 PM. Reason: Formatting

  14. #834
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    [QUOTE=Caribbean;844790]
    giddaye.

    I agree with you that Beagles revenue estimates might be a little optimistic. Although I hope he is right. I’m certainly not as bullish. I would however challenge your assumption that overheads and direct costs will remain proportionally the same. In my model I have further GM% growth and further ebit% growth.

    GM % growth has been growing nicely over past three years and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this increase another 3%. Further I don’t expect overheads to grow at a proportionally same rate as revenue. I’d have a re-think of this and then play with revenue ‘scenario’s’ to get an estimate of EPS.

    I’m really excited about the prospects for this company, just perhaps not as optimistic as the beagle. Woof woof.

  15. #835
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    Finally completed induction into PAZ. Took a good few weeks but in now and have completed my 7 day non-ramping stand-down! Reporting for ST sled duty! Got burnt with a business venture in biologicals back in the 80’s so have been a bit gun-shy about entry. The extraordinary long lead times to get regulatory approval, like 5 years Min for FDA approval and no guarantees of success are the bane of this sector. PAZ has had this part for their collagen functionals sewn up now for many years and appear to supply a Very stable market demand, no mean feat. NZ’s bio disease free status ie no FMD, no mad cow disease (the worst for human use functionals), no rabies, no blue tongue - and on it goes, and long may we be free of these diseases. All this is a great moat for PAZ now they appear to have reached critical mass, I say ‘appear’ as I still have some past report reading to do, mainly comparing margins by year. I was given comfort to join after going over the latest reports and seeing the diversification into non animal origin products that considerably de-risks PAZ while still utilising their expertise in freeze drying and the Industrial scale they have reached with this. Talk of strategic partners throws up many names. I thought of NZ Pharmaceuticals who are Just south Of Palm Nth from where they export animal origin cholines and steroids. No idea who owns them now but there wouLd be market synergies when dealing with pharma customers when selling from lil ‘ol NZ way down under! However there are lots of other non animal origin options if the derisking strategy is followed. Here’s hoping the time has come for PAZ to shine - they deserve it. Look forward to a main board listing in time!

  16. #836
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Hi Austen,

    WOW !!

    I am modelling up this stock's eps for FY20
    What do you think of these two assumptions ?

    1. During the lockdown of April when sales reduced 45% for the month they probably only broke even for that month so the first half normalized profit would be 6/5 x $2.9m = $3.5m.

    2. Last year second half net profit was 22% higher than first half. Considering new product launches then second half should be at least 22% higher than the normalized first half so second half profit should be normalized first half $3.5m x 1.22 = $4.3m so I get a full year profit forecast of $2.9m + $4.3m = $7.2m, which if we normalize this for the effects of Covid in the first half gives a normalized profit for FY20 of $3.5m + $4.3m = $7.8m.

    $7.8m less tax = $5.6m = 2.6 cps, just on double last year which was more than double the year before that.

    At the last traded price in decent volume of 55 cents PAZ appears to be on a forward normalized PE of 55 / 2.6 = just 21.

    That seems very cheap considering their growth rate and outlook. Whoever bought more at 60 cents this morning is brave but probably very clever as FY21's profit could be an absolute cracker !!

    Thanks again for putting me on to this stock, HUGELY appreciated.

    Cheers
    Roger
    __________________________________________________ _______________________________________
    I can not understand how they keep the momentum up.

    "we
    have also faced supply chain challenges, exchange rate volatility and difficulties accessing technical
    support from our international network of equipment suppliers,”

    I appreciate your figures.I think you are spot on taking the right approach of their April downturn.

    As you noted second half is always a lot higher.

    Funny although 22% to 23% higher seems a lot it could be even higher.

    I think your looking more at next year and the following year is right.
    Welcome aboard to the new young pups and please take your position at the rear of the dog sled pack and listen up carefully to the barking that went on behind the scenes between the big dogs up front on 6 August 2020.

    The fact is I have taken no account of how well their new pet treats products might sell and yet the directors were very enthusiastic about this at their half year presentation. I think this is a pretty conservative approach and in Percy's reply he clearly thinks along similar lines.

    PAZ has a history of being extremely conservative with its forecasting e.g. last year they forecasted $2.8m and did $4m.
    I'm quite comfortable with my forecast whilst acknowledging its a very difficult company to create estimates for so probably best to call it an estimate. Its well worth noting that my estimate of 2.6 cps is normalized for the effects of Covid on their operation in April 2019. Take this normalization out and I am estimating reported eps of about 2.4 cps.

    What is clear is that this company is building a base for strong growth in the years ahead.
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-09-2020 at 05:43 PM.
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  17. #837
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Just want to add a couple of extra thoughts to the above initial thinking, events that have evolved since 6 August and other factors additional to the above.
    Above analysis was back of the envelope stuff and essentially made an assumption with the effects of Covid 19 they merely broke even during April 2019, so the gross up of profit 6/5 to get to normalised profit of $3.5m for the half (which would have been up 90% rather than the reported 57%) took no other account of the Covid effect. That's a pretty conservative position as its clear upon further thought that the company shuttered its operations on 23 March and wouldn't have been 100% operational in May either, (were operating at 80% under Covid protection protocols).

    Its clear there were impacts to March and May 2019 as well as April but further to that its clear they delayed the launch of the 5th Quarter brand due to Covid.

    With the 5th Quarter brand now scheduled to be released in the current half, production in full swing, new pet treats range being released, Aiora range released late in 2019 and hopefully building brand awareness and momentum and assuming we can get a full six months production without further Covid interruption, despite the higher currency which will have some effect on margin in the second half I remain comfortable with my estimate of 2.4 cps reported or 2.6 cps Covid adjusted.

    I think eps growth of 57% in the first half when one considers all the unprecedented challenges of coping with the Covid 19 is quite remarkable.
    Last edited by Beagle; 20-09-2020 at 03:54 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  18. #838
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Quite a few parcels of 20-25k shares been snapped up when offered over the last couple of weeks. Percy has given a likely explanation for this on the Skyline thread. Clearly shows that 53-55c range being a current floor on the SP that will hopefully hold until we get more announcements in March-April next year.
    They just keep on coming and being snapped up. Interesting to watch

  19. #839
    Senior Member Entrep's Avatar
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    What’s the best way to buy these? If I have a direct broking account, maybe through Jarden?

  20. #840
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    Quote Originally Posted by Entrep View Post
    What’s the best way to buy these? If I have a direct broking account, maybe through Jarden?
    Yes, you need to place the order over the phone with them .
    Firstly sign your life away on this form and send it to them .
    https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...rsion=20200924

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