PAZ Pharma Zen

[percy]

DATES of.................
........................................ Annual report .........................and Interim report
Year
2005....................................30th March.
2006....................................21th March
2007....................................20th March
2008.....................................1st April......................................10th November
2009 .....................................6th April......................................23rd October
2010......................................8th April......................................28th July
2011.....................................21st April......................................20th August
2012.....................................27th April......................................16th August
2013......................................28th March....................................12th July
2014.....................................4th April..........................................26t h September
2015......................................10th April........................................27th July
2016.......................................4th April
2017.....................................11th April.........................................16th October
2018.....................................26th March........................................11th September
2019.......................................4th April...........................................1s t August
2020......................................2nd March.........................................6th August
2021......................................22nd April..........................................6th August.
So looks to me as though they usually announce their annual result in April and their interim in August.
Maybe just maybe we will get an update before April next year.? Maybe not.
In the meantime I will do the odd trip out to Rolleston to enjoy seeing the progress they are making.

[percy]

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperc...pdf?1627268004
Pleasing seeing PAZ getting their interim out so promptly.Just 6 weeks since 30th June.

[Beagle]

Maybe its just me Percy, being a bean counter, perhaps others don't care....but its not really an interim report in the sense of the term normally associated with interim reports we get for all other companies with full financial statements like for example HLG or WHS is it !

This time they don't even tell us what the net loss was and appear to be trying to conceal the fact there was a loss for the period (concealment of relevant financial information is a VERY BAD LOOK) and instead focus on what the total addressable market might be in 2027 (marketing speak ?).. How is that even relevant in a press release when they already talked about that at the annual meeting ? and yet something so important as what is the actual net profit or loss after tax s is not disclosed ? It isn't right...in fact its a long way from being acceptable.

Even if we overlook this highly relevant thing there's one other little nuance to this years press release compared to last year...just a "minor" thing, but one that makes it literally impossible to forecast another "minor" think called earnings per share. They talked about confidence in the second half this year and yet any forecast for FY21 is conspicuously absent from this years announcement, (extract from August 2020 press release follows)

Mr McIntosh said PharmaZen is optimistic about the outlook for the full year and is forecasting EBITDA of more than $7.4m on sales exceeding $21m. EBITDA was $5.4m in 2019.

At least that was enough last year so I could have a crack at estimating earnings per share..but this year...nothing to work on. Hmmm

Why no forecast for FY21 this year ? Make of that what you will... Its what's NOT being said with PAZ that left me so concerned. Finally, they talked about currency headwinds causing them headwinds of EBITDA of ~ $1m in the most recent period compared to the same period last year.

I understand the 10 year average currency is in the high 60's so I see last years currency exchange rate in the mid - late 50's US as being an unusual "tailwind" rather than this year being a currency "headwind" per se. Why didn't they lock in forward cover on the exchange rate when the rate was so attractive last year ? Anyway back to currency..to me the current level which is quite normal has implications for the gross margin going forward and I read today in the Herald, (paywalled link below) that current shipping rates have doubled again from already highly elevated level's prevailing in March, (middle of the period they just reported), so freight and logistics will be an even bigger headwind going forward (for the foreseeable future), than they have in the past

Getting those 45 containers that are stuck in China shipped here (at any cost), might be easier said than done. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...OF6F4E3GZWFWU/

Finding staff for their increased processing capacity next year might be easier said than done too as many other companies are discovering. Like I said, execution risk is very real and the risk of the very strong growing pains of 2021 flowing over into FY22 as well, is quite real in my opinion.

[percy]

Yes plenty of issues,arising from Covid 19.Yet Covid 19 is making more people aware of looking after their health,which is expanding PAZ's market..
A lot to forward to.
They own the land at Rolleston.
They have the finance to complete Port Hills Road new factory,and build two new factories at Rolleston.
The new factory at Port Hills nearly up and running,and the first Rolleston factory is well under way.Second will follow.
Attracting good staff has not been an issue.
The build program has brought forward about 5 or 6 years expansion,so short term pain is not unexpected,.
The company remains on course to achieve its long term goals,ie Port Hills Road at full capacity and the two new factories at Rolleston to keep up with growing demand.

[couta1]

Maybe its just me Percy, being a bean counter, perhaps others don't care....but its not really an interim report in the sense of the term normally associated with interim reports we get for all other companies with full financial statements like for example HLG or WHS is it !

This time they don't even tell us what the net loss was and appear to be trying to conceal the fact there was a loss for the period (concealment of relevant financial information is a VERY BAD LOOK) and instead focus on what the total addressable market might be in 2027 (marketing speak ?).. How is that even relevant in a press release when they already talked about that at the annual meeting ? and yet something so important as what is the actual net profit or loss after tax s is not disclosed ? It isn't right...in fact its a long way from being acceptable.

Even if we overlook this highly relevant thing there's one other little nuance to this years press release compared to last year...just a "minor" thing, but one that makes it literally impossible to forecast another "minor" think called earnings per share. They talked about confidence in the second half this year and yet any forecast for FY21 is conspicuously absent from this years announcement, (extract from August 2020 press release follows) At least that was enough last year so I could have a crack at estimating earnings per share..but this year...nothing to work on. Hmmm

Why no forecast for FY21 this year ? Make of that what you will... Its what's NOT being said with PAZ that left me so concerned. Finally, they talked about currency headwinds causing them headwinds of EBITDA of ~ $1m in the most recent period compared to the same period last year.

I understand the 10 year average currency is in the high 60's so I see last years currency exchange rate in the mid - late 50's US as being an unusual "tailwind" rather than this year being a currency "headwind" per se. Why didn't they lock in forward cover on the exchange rate when the rate was so attractive last year ? Anyway back to currency..to me the current level which is quite normal has implications for the gross margin going forward and I read today in the Herald, (paywalled link below) that current shipping rates have doubled again from already highly elevated level's prevailing in March, (middle of the period they just reported), so freight and logistics will be an even bigger headwind going forward (for the foreseeable future), than they have in the past

Getting those 45 containers that are stuck in China shipped here (at any cost), might be easier said than done. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...OF6F4E3GZWFWU/

Finding staff for their increased processing capacity next year might be easier said than done too as many other companies are discovering. Like I said, execution risk is very real and the risk of the very strong growing pains of 2021 flowing over into FY22 as well, is quite real in my opinion.

Oh dear, ATM mark 2 thread?

[Beagle]

Happy to leave you to it now. I have expressed all my concerns now about lack of disclosure and other potential headwinds, some of which only really came more clearly into focus this weekend when I have had the time to properly reflect on all this in more detail. Time will tell how this all works out. Best wishes to holders and many thanks to you and stoploss for providing sufficient liquidity so I could exit my position.

[couta1]

Happy to leave you to it now. I have expressed all my concerns now about lack of disclosure and other potential headwinds, some of which only really came more clearly into focus this weekend when I have had the time to properly reflect on all this in more detail. Time will tell how this all works out. Best wishes to holders and many thanks to you and stoploss for providing sufficient liquidity so I could exit my position.

Happy to oblige and hopefully there will be more sellers at 75c or less over the next few months as I need to hit my target number before this gem leaves the station for good, I may very well be buying some whilst riding the chairlift over the next month. Lol

[RTM]

Happy to leave you to it now. I have expressed all my concerns now about lack of disclosure and other potential headwinds, some of which only really came more clearly into focus this weekend when I have had the time to properly reflect on all this in more detail. Time will tell how this all works out. Best wishes to holders and many thanks to you and stoploss for providing sufficient liquidity so I could exit my position.

What a great idea ! But thanks for sharing your thoughts as you exit.

[percy]

It has been kindly pointed out to me ,by former poster MiniMoke,that note 1 at the bottom of page one of PAZ's interim result, seems to have been over looked by some.
1
Trading EBITDA is Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortisation, and any costs associated with
the $14 million capital raise in January, when CIBUS joined the share register. The accounting treatment of
these costs and the related investment is still being reviewed with the company’s auditors

[couta1]

Looks like a good support level has formed at 75c with good volume going through today, some obviously see a bargain at these prices and I'm sure they will be very happy in due course.