HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

Yes it seems trite to have a presentation to analysts and round the EPS to the nearest whole number. I smelled a rat straight away.
Off note 8 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...214/284523.pdf in the financials and based on diluted shares on issue last year I get EPS rising from 12.24 cps to 12.535 cps a gain of just 2.4%. The reason is the growth in impairments. But wait there is more....

I used basic eps ..you used diluted eps ...not much in it

Bad debts up but I reckon ‘proactive provisioning’ had a lot to do with it (wasn’t the result close to guidance)

I see that new accounting standards mean bad debt provisions needs to increase by about $25m next year.

Goes against equity so not a profit impact ....but that’ll help ROE a bit

[winner69]

Yes it seems trite to have a presentation to analysts and round the EPS to the nearest whole number. I smelled a rat straight away.
Off note 8 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...214/284523.pdf in the financials and based on diluted shares on issue last year I get EPS rising from 12.24 cps to 12.535 cps a gain of just 2.4%. The reason is the growth in impairments. But wait there is more....

We have a new accounting standard that requires them to model impairments over the expected life of the loan
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...214/284490.pdf - see more at page 14.
Two things occur to me.
1. This is proof of what I have been saying all along that their methodology of measuring impairments in the past has been to understate them.
2. Its does seem awfully convenient that they are taking this charge of $14-18m net directly as a charge against equity, i.e. an extraordinary item below the normal profit line...after all we can't have such mundane things impacting management's performance bonus next year can we !

Holding.... but less enthusiastic than I was.

But wait there's even more...its all okay because based on this year's forecast EPS will grow from 12.535 cps to 13.5 cps, growth of 8% !
Once the guru analysts work out that EPS is going to grow at 8% this year the share price will really take off !

It’s all a big fiddle eh

Heartland no different in this respect than those awful big Aussie banks

You need to trust bankers and finance company gurus ... that seems rather ironic

[Beagle]

It’s all a big fiddle eh

Heartland no different in this respect than those awful big Aussie banks

You need to trust bankers and finance company gurus ... that seems rather ironic

Well if EPS next year is not at least 13.51 cps so they can round it up in the analyst presentation in FY19 to 14 cps what's the bet that they actually use decimal points to depict EPS more accurately next year lol
This sort of creativity is why I have only a moderate stake and am disinclined to increase it. I think you and Percy will have to be very patient to get your $2.50
7.8% gross yield is the main reason I am holding. Not expecting great things from the SP in the next year, but who knows, I could be pleasantly surprised.

[minimoke]

But I guess the best of the latest results is another free Maori language course! My two new words for today are:

whakaro - a state of mind
tautoko - champion

Hey - this must be worth more than just the measly increase of the EPS by only 1.6%! BTW - what is measly in Maori? They probably never will teach us that particular word ;

At the risk of copping a ban I dont understand why they aren't encouraging language skills to communicate with their growing markets.

From Te Puni Kokiri
Māori home ownership rates are low and declining, however most Māori still have a strong desire for homeownership.. Māori are the Housing Corporation New Zealand’s (HNZC) largest applicant group and the second largest occupant group.
Existing barriers to many Māori owning their own homes include:

• low incomes;
• high debt levels;
• poor access to finance;
• the cost of home ownership (particularly deposit levels, interest rates and purchase price);
• inability to get and use information about home ownership;
• inability to raise housing finance against multiple-owned land; and
• inter-generational experience.

[percy]

[QUOTE=Beagle;724751.

In the meantime, I wish I could say I was surprised by the rising impairments but I'm not. As I have warned before...start making low deposit loans and they come back and bite you.

.
The increase in impairments comes from provisioning very large loans.
Nothing to do with low deposit loans.

[trader_jackson]

I am probably going to regret this post, but today was the day I sold out of HBL.

At just after 2pm today my sell order was executed at $1.71.

In about 20 months, I had made a very good return, and have enjoyed being on the Heartland train during this period, but I believe, in the short term, there is now more chance of the share price going down, than what there is of it going up.

I also will likely (ie not 100% sure yet) require funds for another upcoming IPO , which, depending on the price, I believe will give a higher return than HBL, at least in the short term.

It is likely one day I will be back on the HBL train, and I will be watching with interest.
It is likely I may also consider SUM other investments as well.

Posted 11 April 2017 - now tempting to get back in at under $1.70, if I Mr Market allows... solid guidance for FY19
Just that EPS growth ain't flash

[artemis]

At the risk of copping a ban I dont understand why they aren't encouraging language skills to communicate with their growing markets.

From Te Puni Kokiri
Māori home ownership rates are low and declining, however most Māori still have a strong desire for homeownership.. Māori are the Housing Corporation New Zealand’s (HNZC) largest applicant group and the second largest occupant group.
Existing barriers to many Māori owning their own homes include:

• low incomes;
• high debt levels;
• poor access to finance;
• the cost of home ownership (particularly deposit levels, interest rates and purchase price);
• inability to get and use information about home ownership;
• inability to raise housing finance against multiple-owned land; and
• inter-generational experience.

Maori housing. Elephants in the room - babies before being settled and prioritising spending.

And lest you think I am racist, back in the day I worked for several years in the housing space in what was then Maori Affairs (and later in the general social housing sector for several more years). Usual process was assignments on wages for the deposit and mortgage payments, low deposit, cheap interest rate, some houses available cheap as (well) built under the Maori Apprentice Scheme at the time.

When I arrived in the job 80% of the mortgages were in arrears. After 2 years major effort and some creativity about getting some payments in (eg working with employers, accessing Maori land rents) it was down to 40%. There was a lot of visiting homes. I recall one visit where the chap came to the door, and was completely stunned payments were not being made as he was passing the money over to his wife each and every payday.

[bull....]

probably look at udc again next year i reckon

[whatsup]

probably look at udc again next year i reckon

If they did they would really have to have a very hard look at their numbers bearing in mind that the financial peak has passed.

[percy]

probably look at udc again next year i reckon

As always Heartland are waiting to hear back from ANZ.....?