HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

Tone of announcement pretty downbeat ...not the same excitement as in the past. Is management getting a bit bored and Tired?

A lot of if it wasn’t for this and wasn’t for that the result would have been this sort of stuff — that’s a bit of a worry

That at least will keep snoops busy normalising things.

[Ggcc]

I get the impression they planning to move to the ASX completely over time....

[winner69]

"

Achievements for the year ended 30 June 2018

o Launch of the Heartland mobile app for depositors and savers " But its an App that doesn't do anything

But it’s an App and that’s what matter

[bull....]

move to aus will bring bigger growth and aquisitions im picking

[percy]

As expected a very stable strong result.
The surprise was the 31% growth in the Australian Reserve equity loan business.I think this explains the need to restructure Heartland, so they can continue to grow this business without NZ Reserve Bank capital ratio constrainments.Will over time greatly improve ROC and ROE.
Also pleasing 12% growth in NZ RELs.I note the average size loan appears to be just $30,000,spread over 15000 clients.
Open for "business," "livestock" etc are gaining traction.
Increase in Harmoney lending still means HBL are being picky on what they lend on.
I also note Heartland are continuing to reduce their risk from large loans,and moving their lending to a greater number of smaller loans.
Motor vehicle lending is still strong.
A very good outlook with continuing strong organic growth,while still driving down costs.
Thank you Heartland.Well done.

[bull....]

As expected a very stable strong result.
The surprise was the 31% growth in the Australian Reserve equity loan business.I think this explains the need to restructure Heartland, so they can continue to grow this business without NZ Reserve Bank capital ratio onstrainments.Will over time greatly improve ROC and ROE.
Also pleasing 12% growth in NZ RELs.I note the average size loan appears to be just $30,000,spread over 15000 clients.
Open for "business," "livestock" etc are gaining traction.
Increase in Harmoney lending still means HBL are being picky on what they lend on.
I also note Heartland are continuing to reduce their risk from large loans,and moving their lending to a greater number of smaller loans.
Motor vehicle lending is still strong.
A very good outlook with continuing strong organic growth,while still driving down costs.
Thank you Heartland.Well done.

good points percy im in agreement the reverse mtge has the opp to be biggest in aus/nz

[Beagle]

Market always forward looking so here's my take on forward guidance.
Mid point of $76m on 560.1m shares gives forecast earnings of 13.57 cps, call it 13.5 cps because some shares will be issued in lieu of dividend during the year.

Now what's the right PE given their growth rate and compared to their peers ? Time for a peer review and detailed analysis of comparative forecast growth rates...will look at that when I have time and post my thoughts.

In the meantime, I wish I could say I was surprised by the rising impairments but I'm not. As I have warned before...start making low deposit loans and they come back and bite you.
Overall a pretty reasonable result I feel. Highlight for me is growth in reverse equity loans especially in Australia, the low point the level of impairments.

Gut feel this is a hold. I feel a PE of about 13.5 is right and on 13.5 cps this gives me a target price of $1.82 by early 2019. At $1.74 less the pending 5.5 cps final dividend due shortly, (net price $1.685) and assuming 9.5 cps in divvies in FY19 holders are looking at a gross yield inclusive of imputation credits of (9.5 / 168.5) / 0.72 = 7.8%. I think that's pretty good and makes the shares a good hold.

[minimoke]

good points percy im in agreement the reverse mtge has the opp to be biggest in aus/nz

The trouble I see with Reverse Mortgages is that there is nothing very special in them. Sure HBL have some first mover advantage. But lets face it. Low loan to asset ratio RE loan, high interest - no reason at all to prevent other banks entering the fray. And then they can do much larger loan /asset ratio loans and start squeezing margins.

[bull....]

The trouble I see with Reverse Mortgages is that there is nothing very special in them. Sure HBL have some first mover advantage. But lets face it. Low loan to asset ratio RE loan, high interest - no reason at all to prevent other banks entering the fray. And then they can do much larger loan /asset ratio loans and start squeezing margins.

if the big banks wanted in the space , they would be. Its still a niche at the moment maybe one day if its big time stuff heartland would be taken over

[Beagle]

The trouble I see with Reverse Mortgages is that there is nothing very special in them. Sure HBL have some first mover advantage. But lets face it. Low loan to asset ratio RE loan, high interest - no reason at all to prevent other banks entering the fray. And then they can do much larger loan /asset ratio loans and start squeezing margins.

All the Australian banks are heavily capital constrained and these loans need capital. The major's in Australia have shown a lack of interest in this type of lending for a VERY VERY long time. I think this ultra low risk Australian lending is the jewel in the crown of the company whereas no deposit unsecured Harmoney lending will continue to be the thorn in their side. Thankfully the former is many times larger than the latter and growing at a vastly quicker pace.