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  1. #11081
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    It’s all a big fiddle eh

    Heartland no different in this respect than those awful big Aussie banks

    You need to trust bankers and finance company gurus ... that seems rather ironic
    Market not silly is it. Its wiped the net effect of their prior inadequate impairment provisioning ($14-18m) straight off the market cap.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #11082
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Market not silly is it. Its wiped the net effect of their prior inadequate impairment provisioning ($14-18m) straight off the market cap.
    Don’t think the markets that clever mate

    Share price down today probably because the result was just so so (eps eh)

    And I reckon as punters come to grips with the new structure with its inherent increased risks Heartland multiples might shrink a bit
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #11083
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Don’t think the markets that clever mate

    Share price down today probably because the result was just so so (eps eh)

    And I reckon as punters come to grips with the new structure with its inherent increased risks Heartland multiples might shrink a bit
    Might increase too.
    Outlook.Nett profit $75 mil to $77.Either an 11% or most probably a 14% increase.
    All the time risk is reducing,while the quality of lending improves.
    …………........................…..Lower big loans.Greater number of smaller loans.
    ………………………………………….Huge continuing low risk RELs.
    ………………………………………….Better quality motor vehicle loans via Holden,Jaguar/Landrover.
    Yet NIM is still excellent.

  4. #11084
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    as reverse mtge book gets bigger part of there business , risk will reduce alot
    one step ahead of the herd

  5. #11085
    IMO
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    CGF Challenger group the elephant in the room to aspire to in aus $4 billion in annuities
    Download Document 4.36MB

  6. #11086
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Don’t think the markets that clever mate

    Share price down today probably because the result was just so so (eps eh)

    And I reckon as punters come to grips with the new structure with its inherent increased risks Heartland multiples might shrink a bit

    Hmmmm, Its interesting that the 3 cps fall, (wiping about $16.8m off the market cap is bang on the money in terms of the mid point of the net expected effect of the new provisioning standards), maybe the market is more efficient than we give it credit for sometimes or maybe this is just coincidence, who knows ?

    Speaking of efficient markets, possibly the PE is also bang on the money, (forward PE about 12.7) at closing price.

    I looked at the FY19 projected PE's of NAB, ANZ, WBC, CBA, BEN and BOQ just now. Average forward PE is 12.5 based off 4 traders data. Average projected FY19 EPS growth rate, (to be revised as some companies haven't reported FY18 earnings yet) is 4.4%.

    Market pretty efficient in this instance, pricing HBL exactly where it should be at the closing price in my opinion. Holding for yield and maybe a little bit of eps growth ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 15-08-2018 at 04:12 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #11087
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    Quote Originally Posted by artemis View Post
    Maori housing. Elephants in the room - babies before being settled and prioritising spending.........
    You're right it does sound racist.

    When you compare "Maori" stats you need to compare them to cohorts of the general population with similar socio-economic markers such as age and income levels.

    As such a high percentage of middle-age high-earners' investment in NZ - is funnelled into residential real estate it forces the price of land up for poorer younger people of prime child-bearing age on median and lower incomes who would otherwise be seekng to put down roots with their own homes. People waiting for middle-age to have children have greater risk of having sickly children.

    Is the NZ residential tenancy environment good for good tenants to put down roots safe from eviction?

    Disparities in wealth and income levels have widened over the last decades. The poorest need greater will power and but have even less ability to afford the materialism pumped at all of us through modern marketing and advertising.

    This does not even delve into the psychological effects on Maori descendants of colonialism and becoming a minority in their own country in which the colonising migrant culture has become dominant...
    Last edited by Bjauck; 15-08-2018 at 04:17 PM.

  8. #11088
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    Thank you for educating us Bj.

  9. #11089
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    I think the result is solid but unspectacular, though lets keep in mind that the stock really did get way ahead of itself and this is not the fault of management. The unsustainable exuberance showed by investors for it to reach $2.14 was unwarranted and we probably wouldn't be talking about it the way we are at the moment if it was not for that. Not at any point was guidance issued for a profit upgrade but it was priced in like a forgone conclusion.

    For the result itself, $67.5m is within the higher range given to us and the guidance to $75-77m touts a 11-14% rise in NPAT which is good. What is interesting is the large jump in impairment expense by 44% or a jump from 5.3% of revenue to 7.1%. Either they are writing bad business up as revenues increase, more business is taken up and more risks are taken.

    The cash flow of the business itself in terms of operating is only up slightly and we just had a massive capital raise by the company done. I know the system implementation was a big one off expense and as I said before these always end up costing more than originally thought. Most models are best case scenario's and companies are only to happy to implement first and fix later.

    The forward PE is about a 13, as Beagle said its fairly priced with other banks. I still think this one has been operating ahead of its banking counterparts at a higher PE because of the sustained growth it has had but it will have to show me at the HY if it is attainable. The lackluster EPS growth shows that the capital raise has not yet been put to good use returning profits back to shareholders. I think it has to prove whether its a PE15+ stock now as it has been and if it is, will be over $2 again soon. Otherwise I see it staying in the range of $1.75 to $1.90.

    As for myself, I'll continue to hold but not be accumulating anymore. I have a small position in this one and the DRP actually favors me when price goes lower. There are better opportunities right now in SUM and OCA imo.

  10. #11090
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Thank you for educating us Bj.
    Its not an education. Its a monologue full of holes and this isn't the thread to respond

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