HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Baa_Baa]

And just for you TA people I noted in my review of the chart this afternoon we have the very good makings of a head and shoulders pattern about to be completed if you get your 175 support in due course and a bounce to say mid 180's that should nicely complete the head and shoulders and then that gives them what ? over a 90% from memory ? chance of going down from there. Zero EPS growth and down they go to the average of the other banks, about a PE of 13. $1.50 - $1.60 looks quite possible to me. Just as well Winner's bowling club mates got onto the A2 rocket !

The 1.50 - 1.60 level has merit from a TA perspective, but 1.75 support is pretty solid and definitely in the way before that, imo. I'm quite gobsmacked that the HBL darling has posted such poor EPS, those underlying costs etc are chewing away at the near term. I wouldn't want to hold this stock in a global rout, it'll get slammed immediately with the real banks, but who knows whether that's going to happen - probably just being a worry wort.

I guess the long termers don't care too much about capital preservation as long as the dividends keep rolling in. They do crow about making some lovely capital upside and divies, but probably just happy as long as the income keeps coming in irrespective of the head share price. That logic fails me, but I'm not relying on shares for regular income and hate capital losses.

[Beagle]

I think you're dead right to be cautious Baa. Capital preservation must play an important part in one's investment strategy surely ! That was some mighty severe turbulence earlier this month. I've been happy to sell in recent months any high PE stock that doesn't come with explosive growth. Portfolio adjustments in recent months due to the risk reward equation looking too skewed to the former have included sales of, AIR at an average of over $3.40 when RR engine problems were a prominent and unknown risk, HBL at $2.14, PE too high for a bank, PPH at $4.15 and THL, got the timing a bit wrong at an average of about $5.80 but as the old saying goes you can't win them all.
Plenty of cash in the tin helps provide a buffer and dampen down the effects of extreme volatility.

As you suggest the old hands don't care as long as the divvies keep rolling in but I think its clear the market wasn't impressed with zero EPS / dividend growth. Recycled HBL capital into additional ATM in December at around $9 and SUM in the mid 5's so I'm all good

[percy]

I used to agree with both Baa Baa and Beagle's point about preserving capital.
However I find my own portfolio suits my now retirement needs.
Those needs are income first to live.This income needs to come from good companies,that have a record of paying fully imputed growing dividends.After any correction these types of shares recover the quickest.So I have HBL and others my portfolio.[HLG,MEL,TRA],
So with income sorted, I have spare capital .This capital is spread between NZ and Australian companies,mainly in sectors I feel have good growth prospects,and yield is secondary,ie,tourism,health,and retirement villages,and mining.
With the growing amount of petty cash,because we live well within our means, I then invest in higher risk fun shares.Over the years I have done extremely well on these.Profits from these are then recycled into my high income producing shares,which means more of the likes of HBL,HLG,MEL,THL, and TRA.Compond investing really works,leaving us all the time "well positioned.".

[silu]

Had a trigger to sell below $1.95 which wasn't renewed because I was incommunicado for a while. There goes about 12c/share which I would have dearly loved. Still like the company but most likely will go sideways for a while and I have more noteworthy investments at the moment.

[Beagle]

If they can make $68m which looks like a tall order given their first half result that's just 12.2 cps on 557m shares, (I don't "buy" all this creative weighted average shares on issue nonsense). I no longer see a valid reason they should trade on a multiple in excess of their peer group, EPS growth is no better than the big banks many of which have a 150+ year history and vastly better credit rating, so I reckon a PE of 13 is fair so I get $1.59 as my target price.

[percy]

DRP is looking more attractive every day..!

[winner69]

Goodness gracious - share price falling faster than what Metro Glass is doing

[janner]

DRP is looking more attractive every day..!

My thoughts also..

[bull....]

i just brought some this morning looks oversold to me , nice div coming up .... see how it pans out

[percy]

Goodness gracious - share price falling faster than what Metro Glass is doing

The steady share is turning out to be MVN.???????????????????/
....lol.