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  1. #10261
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Do you care janner or will you just sail through it all as I suspect you will !! Agree with Percy going on the phone. Just hope he can hear them correctly on the other end :-)
    Spot on iceman.. However I do like your word sail.. Have been pondering another yacht for some time.. Wondering whether I am getting to old to handle one Certainly able to afford it . :-)))) Waiting with bated breath to hear from Percy..

  2. #10262
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by janner View Post
    Over half the days turn over in the last minute... Nothing steady about that..

    Ramping ??????

    Beginning to defy logic..

    Time for Percy to get on the phone ..
    As near as I can figure it there was a substantial disturbance in the NZX50 yesterday with index rebalancing. With Rod Drury in his "infinite wisdom" deciding that XRO should exit the NZX on the face of it PPH simply replaced it and that was that, (apart from the obvious displeasure of XRO shareholders and pleasure of PPH holders)...but my sense is there is more to it than that.
    It looked to me that a large number of stocks in the NZX50 came under serious buying pressure in the last 15 minutes of that closing match process. I suspect there is far more to it that simply PPH replacing XRO in the index and that holdings by tracker funds following that index had to rebalance quite a number of their holdings due to the substantial market capitalization difference between XRO and PPH. This is a highly irregular situation because normally the size of the incoming stock coming into the NZX50 is slightly more than the lowest former ranking NZX50 stock. That's my theory on it anyway but its just a theory and I'm not pretending to know exactly how these index rebalancing process's work. I suspect that any holder who sold at $2.14 on Friday can thank Rod Drury for his kindness and I would put a cider or two on normal market pricing resuming next week.
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-12-2017 at 08:30 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #10263
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    Quote Originally Posted by janner View Post
    Spot on iceman.. However I do like your word sail.. Have been pondering another yacht for some time.. Wondering whether I am getting to old to handle one Certainly able to afford it . :-)))) Waiting with bated breath to hear from Percy..
    With all the $2.14 large trades crossing at, and after closing, HBL may not "yet" be aware of who is buying/selling.
    Ringing on Monday I would most probably get,"we will have to wait to receive details of buy/sell from Link Market Services, before we know ourselves."
    Or else, should they know,they may not be in the position to tell me.They may have to inform NZX?
    HBL is trading above Craigs,FNZC and Hobson Wealth's target prices,so it does not appear to be in reaction to an urgent upgrade buy from these brokers.
    Often after a rights issue or placement, we see the share price come back towards the placement/rights issue price.This has not been the case with HBL's rights issue.
    Like every one else, I may just have to wait and see.
    However like Iceman and Janner, I will continue to enjoy sailing along with the strong tail wind.

    ps.Since writing this I notice Beagle's post.Makes sense to me.
    Last edited by percy; 16-12-2017 at 08:29 AM.

  4. #10264
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    Didn't Mr Orr get a big cheque from Grant Robertson yesterday?

  5. #10265
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    I am not selling. This is a solid stock which I think will do what it says. Overprice at 2.14 but has a floor at2.02 I think. It is an example of why owning tracker funds have a risk. Market usually goes too high at xmas.

  6. #10266
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    As near as I can figure it there was a substantial disturbance in the NZX50 yesterday with index rebalancing. With Rod Drury in his "infinite wisdom" deciding that XRO should exit the NZX on the face of it PPH simply replaced it and that was that, (apart from the obvious displeasure of XRO shareholders and pleasure of PPH holders)...but my sense is there is more to it than that.
    It looked to me that a large number of stocks in the NZX50 came under serious buying pressure in the last 15 minutes of that closing match process. I suspect there is far more to it that simply PPH replacing XRO in the index and that holdings by tracker funds following that index had to rebalance quite a number of their holdings due to the substantial market capitalization difference between XRO and PPH. This is a highly irregular situation because normally the size of the incoming stock coming into the NZX50 is slightly more than the lowest former ranking NZX50 stock. That's my theory on it anyway but its just a theory and I'm not pretending to know exactly how these index rebalancing process's work. I suspect that any holder who sold at $2.14 on Friday can thank Rod Drury for his kindness and I would put a cider or two on normal market pricing resuming next week.
    Looks as if you were correct ..

    Still a very good price with a good number going through already .

  7. #10267
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Yeap I hear its also common for the index tracker funds to mop up any shares they are missing from the rebalance on the Monday following the big closing Friday match process. We'll know where the true price is by mid week I would say. Possibly a tad over full value at the current price but then again its getting quite hard to find any real value on the NZX so probably a reasonable hold for 2018 but I don't think total shareholder return next year is going top anything like what it was this year.
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-12-2017 at 01:57 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #10268
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Yeap I hear its also common for the index tracker funds to mop up any shares they are missing from the rebalance on the Monday following the big closing Friday match process. We'll know where the true price is by mid week I would say. Possibly a tad over full value at the current price but then again its getting quite hard to find any real value on the NZX so probably a reasonable hold for 2018 but I don't think total shareholder return next year is going top anything like what it was this year.
    There are lots of people retiring and selling their Auckland houses. They need somewhere to put their money and given interest rates are so pitiful, they will look to the stock market as an option for some or all of those funds. Even tho it seems expensive......their options aren't very attractive. So I see them continuing to underpin our sharemarket.

  9. #10269
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    There are lots of people retiring and selling their Auckland houses. They need somewhere to put their money and given interest rates are so pitiful, they will look to the stock market as an option for some or all of those funds. Even tho it seems expensive......their options aren't very attractive. So I see them continuing to underpin our sharemarket.
    Agreed and one of the key themes I am working on for 2018 and beyond is interest rates staying very very low for the foreseeable future which will underpin the attractiveness of our high dividend yield market.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #10270
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Hey Winner, do you think your old GDT auction price and HBL SP correlation theory still holds any water ? Maybe $2.14 was the top...for a while...
    https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/dairy-...march-b-211376
    Last edited by Beagle; 20-12-2017 at 09:54 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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