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  1. #7071
    Senior Member Marilyn Munroe's Avatar
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    The conern voiced about Heartlands rural exposure is surely over agitated

    The provincial accountant who sits on the board of directors would have cut his teeth in the trade during the era of Supplimentary Minimum Payments and the havoc wrought on the rural sector by Rodgernomics.

    He would have cautioned his fellow directors the winds of change in farming often blow with the ferocity of a Canterbury Nor-wester.

    His fellow directors despite being latte sipping Dorklanders would have recognised the credibility of his concerns and acted with prudence.

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn

  2. #7072
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Heartland says "Key drivers of growth for Heartland are GDP and employment"

    Great news then -


    @ANZ_cambagrie: Good Q4 retail sales. Volume up 1.2% qpc, core 1.4%. Value 1.2% qpc. Housing and tourism related industries led. Economy still rolling along
    Last edited by winner69; 16-02-2016 at 11:23 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #7073
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by K1W1G0LD View Post
    Good to see a reversal Now the Lemmings and nervous nellie's have moved all their funds back into bonds or savings or wherever.

    More Lemmings today - looked good all day and then wham at the end - down to 112 (whoops 111)

    Global Dairy Trade auction tonight .....hmmm
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #7074
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Obviously only do high quality lending
    That really depends on what you choose as your measuring stick Winner. If you compare the annual impairment expense with Earnings Before Tax (with the impairment added back into that), a rather different picture emerges.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Heartland Bank
    Annual Impaired Asset Expense (A) Total Impaired Asset Provision (B) (A)/(B) Net Receivables (impairment included) (B)/(C) EBT (before impaired asset exposure) (A)/(D)
    2012 $5.642m $27.426m 21% $2,105.702m 1.3% $29.337m 19%
    2013 $22.527m $50.491m 45% $2,060.867m 2.4% $36.540 62%
    2014 $5.895m $16.381m 36% $2,623.767m 0.6% $57.416m 10%
    2015 $12.105m $25.412m 48% $2,887.482m 0.9% $76.304m 16%
    Now compare the above Heartland table with the equivalent table for UDC

    UDC
    Annual Impaired Asset Expense (A) Total Impaired Asset Provision (B) (A)/(B) Net Receivables (impairment included) (B)/(C) EBT (before impaired asset exposure) (A)/(D)
    2012 $6.031m $38.481m 16% $2,052.954m 1.9% $58.476m 10%
    2013 $7.123m $37.460m 19% $2,102.577m 1.8% $66.787 11%
    2014 $11.733m $31.805m 37% $2,303.386m 1.4% $83.501m 14%
    2015 $10.427m $31.529m 33% $2,378.692m 1.3% $89.750m 12%

    You have to regard the FY2013 figures for Heartland as an outlier. This is because the 'non core legacy property portfolio was brought (and bought! {from PGC}) onto the books.

    The impairment to earnings ratio for the last couple of years has been not so different. However the 'total impaired provision', a defacto balance sheet item (as noted in the financial recievables break down of each company), is consistently less at Heartland in comparison with UDC.

    However the annual impairment charge verses total impairment value in balance sheet terms ( A/B ) is generally greater at Heartland. This is consistent with Heartland underestimating their impairments over the years. IOW the judgement of the Heartland team when evaluating loans is not as good as their UDC equivalents.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 16-02-2016 at 06:35 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  5. #7075
    Pirate K1W1G0LD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    More Lemmings today - looked good all day and then wham at the end - down to 112 (whoops 111)

    Global Dairy Trade auction tonight .....hmmm
    Be good to see the s/p stabilise and advance when this relentless daily selldown stops..................whenever that might be!
    Not what you'd call a tightly held register, the curse of relatively cheap shares.
    Will have to wait for next tuesday to see where they're at.

  6. #7076
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Dairy Prices down again in latest auction - WMP down 3.7%

    No comment because as Tiger, Marilyn and others say this doesn't have much impact on Heartland
    Last edited by winner69; 17-02-2016 at 04:54 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #7077
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    Sure Dairy gets the headlines however have you consider the agricultural service industry loan book related to the regional economy as a whole give what area of farming actually is doing well? Interesting increases in impairment provision announced by a couple of banks yesterday..all state they not expecting any losses! Or nothing unexpected. I actually think the banks that can maintain the best margins on residential rates will come out best.

  8. #7078
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Dairy farm prices down in January, lifestyle block market buoyant - REINZ
    http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...-buoyant-reinz

    Wonder how the LVR % is holding up.

    Looking at the numbers doesn't look like many of the farms Raz mentioned have been sold
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #7079
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    Chris Lee on todays Taking Stock article questions the HBL share price going down and then says""Ïf the fall is for fear of rising rural loan write offs then the fear would seem to be misplaced""

  10. #7080
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by beetills View Post
    Chris Lee on todays Taking Stock article questions the HBL share price going down and then says""Ïf the fall is for fear of rising rural loan write offs then the fear would seem to be misplaced""
    Next week Heartland H1will be $26m plus or minus a bit.

    Rural loans will show as being under control - 100% certain

    But FY17?
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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