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  1. #13881
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    Forsyth this morning saying HGH overvalued - 12 month price target of $1.35...

  2. #13882
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    Come on TJ Frosyth broker is a crook .....can not be trusted...and everyone knows...

  3. #13883
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Forsyth this morning saying HGH overvalued - 12 month price target of $1.35...
    I've seen the report and couldn't disagree with it more. The company itself is forecasting $84m at the mid point of their forecast range which translates to earnings of 14.3 cps and yet Forbar are only estimating 10.5 cps, claiming we are in the heart of the storm. The average analyst view of market screener is here and shows earnings for FY21 or 13 cps rising to 14 and 15 cps in the following years. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...44/financials/

    Rather than me make aspersions on their analysts work I would rather simply highlight that its at a really substantial variation to the company's own forecast and the rest of the investment analyst community.
    All that's left for me to add in this instance is that Forbar run a subsidiary company called Leveraged Equities that gives their clients the ability to short stocks. Maybe they are looking for more business with their subsidiary ?

    My own view is that HGH is very cheap relative to the six Australian banks I follow all of which are trading in ostensibly the same environment as HGH.
    Last edited by Beagle; 20-10-2020 at 06:31 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #13884
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I've seen the report and couldn't disagree with it more. The company itself is forecasting $84m at the mid point of their forecast range which translates to earnings of 14.3 cps and yet Forbar are only estimating 10.5 cps, claiming we are in the heart of the storm. The average analyst view of market screener is here and shows earnings for FY21 or 13 cps rising to 14 and 15 cps in the following years. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...44/financials/

    Rather than me make aspersions on their analysts work I would rather simply highlight that its at a really substantial variation to the company's own forecast and the rest of the investment analyst community.
    All that's left for me to add in this instance is that Forbar run a subsidiary company called Leveraged Equities that gives their clients the ability to short stocks. Maybe they are looking for more business with their subsidiary ?

    My own view is that HGH is very cheap relative to the six Australian banks I follow all of which are trading in ostensibly the same environment as HGH.
    Arent forsyth the same crowd target price ATM $21.50?

  5. #13885
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    After a sobering and expensive experience with brokers and their analysts in the early 90’s, I cut my own path, learnt basic FA and binged on TA. Owning a business for a while helped.

    It’s worked pretty well so far. The only analysts you need imho are the generous collective members of ST. And the fortitude to make up your own mind and back your own research in your investing and trading. It’s also a lot more rewarding in many ways.

    Disc own HGH and quietly accumulating these depressed prices.

    Gltah.

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    Not sure jimdog31...I am not following ATM or Synlait closely at this stage.

    Top rated US analyst who had won some professional award was on CNBC this morning saying the financials' are heavily undervalued as a sector. Being priced for Armageddon, worse than GFC and is not warranted. He also made the astute observation that financials' have the highest covid beta so on any good news regarding a vaccine we could see a substantial rerating of this sector.

    On another topic, I was a client of Forbar for more than a decade and left them about 15 years ago. I found their research to be of inconsistent quality. Some of their analysts had good insights and others...not so good. I have cut a very similar path to you Baa Baa and agree 100% with your viewpoint expressed above.

    I have also been accumulating HGH shares and I now have more than ever held previously. There's not much point having funds on term deposit is there so the benefits of investing on the right side of the ledger so too speak, have never been more clearly defined !
    Last edited by Beagle; 21-10-2020 at 08:45 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #13887
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Not sure jimdog31...I am not following ATM or Synlait closely at this stage.

    Top rated US analyst who had won some professional award was on CNBC this morning saying the financials' are heavily undervalued as a sector. Being priced for Armageddon, worse than GFC and is not warranted. He also made the astute observation that financials' have the highest covid beta so on any good news regarding a vaccine we could see a substantial rerating of this sector.

    On another topic, I was a client of Forbar for more than a decade and left them about 15 years ago. I found their research to be of inconsistent quality. Some of their analysts had good insights and others...not so good. I have cut a very similar path to you Baa Baa and agree 100% with your viewpoint expressed above.

    I have also been accumulating HGH shares and I now have more than ever held previously.
    Thanks Beagle. I'm pretty sure they are - even with the latest ATM news they held very close to that target. They are also the crowd that are pushing a price target of $13 for PPH, so the spread of their targets are wildly inconsistent , too high and too low.

    I think their Excel may be in need of an update. They are probably using the same guys that built the spreadsheet for COVID tracking in the UK.

    Anyway I agree with you, most of HGH market segments are spread to diversify the risk IMO.

  8. #13888
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    I remain disappointed but agree that the financial sector has been oversold and am currently in ANZ WBC and HGH

    For this one, I'd really like to see some serious support kick in at 1.33 or thereabouts. Confluence of some useful moving averages around there on both the daily and the hourly.

    Attachment 12031
    Attachment 12032
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  9. #13889
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    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/361862


    Heartland long-term rating affirmed, outlook remains stable
    22 October 2020
    Fitch Rating (Fitch) has affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) of Heartland Group Holdings Limited (NZX/ASX: HGH) (Heartland Group) and Heartland Bank Limited (NZX: HBL)
    (Heartland Bank) at 'BBB' and the Long-Term IDR of Heartland Australia Group Pty Ltd (Heartland Australia) at 'BBB-'. The Outlooks remain Stable.

    Heartland Bank remains one of just two Australasian banks to have no reduction or adverse change to its ratings or outlook despite the economic impacts of COVID-19 since January 2020.

  10. #13890
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    Bloody good news!!

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