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  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    Janner, Belg is inferring spin by Heartland, not S&P.....Allow me to put my spin on the statement



    The rating is confirmed as close to junk, non investment grade



    Their margins do not reflect the risk profile of their assets, and they are probably sitting on too much cash hoping for the banking license. In the meantime they are being killed by the negative cost of carrying all this idle liquidity

    S and P are concerned with the exposure to the property development sector and would like to see them out now, take the hit and move on before the situation deteriorates further

    This stock has been in a downward trend for some time and shows no reason for encouragement going forward.

    The underwriters (a $100 company formed in July) must be getting nervous, as who in their right mind would tip good money after bad into what is still effectively a finance company with ambitions that look more distant by the day.
    What i'm confused about and would be interested in anyones thoughts......but i thought Heartland had exited their property development rollercoaster.....and these were now held by PGC. Also, the deal for PGWF is their good stuff and not at the risky high end side. In summary, is not Heartland a clean entity, with a lot less risk than what has been previously held.

  2. #52
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    "clean" is a relative state - the world moves on and the robustness of the book most likely has deteriorated since that activity took place - at least that appears to be the perspective from S and P

  3. #53
    Senior Member kizame's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    "clean" is a relative state - the world moves on and the robustness of the book most likely has deteriorated since that activity took place - at least that appears to be the perspective from S and P
    If the worlds economies are not improving,then a certain amount of stagnation,if not deterioration affects every loan as I'm sure you will appreciate,even your mortgage looks riskier.But you have to keep it in perspective,some on here are a wee bit negative,but when things turn,so does sentiment.

  4. #54
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    The sensitivity analysis shows how vulnerable that $24m forecast is though.

    Also, still think they are optimistic re liquidity profile and impairments, but still looks as though it should all hold together. Another year and things might be coming together for them. Looks like spp will go through at a good price for small investors.

  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post
    The sensitivity analysis shows how vulnerable that $24m forecast is though.

    Also, still think they are optimistic re liquidity profile and impairments, but still looks as though it should all hold together. Another year and things might be coming together for them. Looks like spp will go through at a good price for small investors.
    That is a very interesting slide eh Lizard - some might say huge upsides as well

    Looks like we need to keep an eye on those interest margins eh - 1% either way has a $14m impact

  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    That is a very interesting slide eh Lizard - some might say huge upsides as well

    Looks like we need to keep an eye on those interest margins eh - 1% either way has a $14m impact
    Does anyone have any thoughts on whether it's good idea to upsize their holding in HNZ in respect of the SPP at a 5% discount, based on trading for today and next 4 days ? Naturally nobody has a crystal ball, though you could argue that todays price of $0.56 on open market may fair better than average weighted price less 5%, come next week.

    If anybody has any thoughts, I would welcome them, that said will small shareholders take up the SPP, given todays results ??

  7. #57
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    Hi Corlemar,

    If HNZ survives, then a 5% discount to todays price will probably be a very good deal and spp holders should opt for whatever they can afford. There's a strong chance they'll survive, but until the rate of overdues and impairments shows more signs of slowing and the liquidity constraints around the govt guarantee and the general attitude of investors in the new age of deleveraging-by-default-inflation-restructuring-etc-etc has been negotiated, then it is still going to be a bit tense.

    Not an answer really, but I've opted to take up some of the spp, having bought a few to have access to it.

  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post
    Hi Corlemar,

    If HNZ survives, then a 5% discount to todays price will probably be a very good deal and spp holders should opt for whatever they can afford. There's a strong chance they'll survive, but until the rate of overdues and impairments shows more signs of slowing and the liquidity constraints around the govt guarantee and the general attitude of investors in the new age of deleveraging-by-default-inflation-restructuring-etc-etc has been negotiated, then it is still going to be a bit tense.

    Not an answer really, but I've opted to take up some of the spp, having bought a few to have access to it.
    Thanks for the informative advice.....will most likely take up some !

  9. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by corlemar View Post
    Thanks for the informative advice.....will most likely take up some !
    hey liz, following on from the info you previously gave, and after looking at the prospectus for the SPP, it looks as though HNZ could influence, ultimately the offer price of the SPP, by simply extending the closing date. For example if they felt the average closing price was going to be too low, say $0.55 or lower (this as we know is substantially lower than what the institutions are paying $0.75) why not extend the closing date to bring them more in line ??

    I guess what i'm getting at is, why in the offer document is there an option to extend the closing date, if as we know it is fully underwritten by an institution (should small investors not snap up the $35m SPP)....Perhaps I'm over complicating matters though would be interested in anyone's comments !!

  10. #60
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    As I read it, the extension date exists mostly in order to tie the allotment of the spp in with the purchase of PWF becoming unconditional. The spp documentation was issued before the approval meetings of the PGW stakeholders and remains dependent on the timing of the NZ Treasury issuing the revisions to guarantee documents. Provided the Treasury side completes this week, I can't see them needing to extend.

    I doubt very much that they would try to extend to get a higher share price, as it is more likely that any delays/extension would result in the share price falling rather than rising.

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