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20-11-2018, 04:07 PM
#11651
Originally Posted by winner69
Current market Price to Book value of 1.35 times
Reasonable ......but share price sub 140 still possible to complete that H&S chart pattern
Those head and shoulders patterns pretty reliable indicators aren't they mate. That, the whole milk powder price and the spooky correlation thereto as well as the significant correction of this sector in Australia all point to a completion of the head and shoulders to just under $1.40. Tough times to be a hgh supporter. Dividend yield should give support, (he says hopefully), in the $1.30's. Hanging in their grimly with a moderate stake at this stage.
Last edited by Beagle; 20-11-2018 at 04:08 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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20-11-2018, 08:58 PM
#11652
[QUOTE=Jay;738013]I saw it too re CBA puling out of Reverse Mtges.
Article said will only leave a few small non bank "competitors" or something like that.
Was Stuff or similar, cannot remember and cannot find the actual article I read, but here is one :
The reasons stated are rising costs and risk adverse legislation.
As far as costs go these mainly fall on the lender-in case of Heartland they dont seem to have changed and are probably very low.They currently lend on reverse mortgages at approx 7.8% compounded monthly and borrow at 1/2 that.
Profit margin seems high at what appears to be very low risk-they only lend on a very small percentage of the valuation. The mortgage is terminated if the mortgagee moves-eg into a rest home or to sell down to a smaller home .Average length of mortgage is 7 years.
seems no more risky than a standard mortgage but several times the profit margin.
Hence if Banks are moving out of this market-and I suggest we dont know the real reasons for this -it can only help heartland.
Adverse legislation can affect anything but I cannot see it take away a fundamental freedom to borrow money against a house or anything else
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20-11-2018, 09:11 PM
#11653
Most banks have "process" set up to handle mortgages.You apply for a mortgage and it is approved or declined within a day or two.Simple.
Reverse mortgage "process" takes about a month or more.Applicant needs legal advice,full understanding of the loan,family consultation.Heartland must make sure the applicant understands what happens if they need to move into care,etc,etc..
I think the major banks have decided this "process" is too drawn out for them and possibly not their "core" [simple] business.
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21-11-2018, 07:00 AM
#11654
Global Dairy Trade auction prices down 3.5% overnight
Decline seen all year continues ...just like Heartlands share price
Outlook for dairy prices apparently not that bright either
Spooky eh, really spooky
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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21-11-2018, 07:06 AM
#11655
Thanks Percy.
Banks are also making so much money they dont need to risk adverse publicity if complaints arise from loss of capital when the house is sold.
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21-11-2018, 08:47 AM
#11656
The buy spread on HGH looks interesting this morning - 1 at 145 and the next at 128. Possibly a bunch of people sitting on the sideline trying to time the market.
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21-11-2018, 09:35 AM
#11657
Originally Posted by winner69
Global Dairy Trade auction prices down 3.5% overnight
Decline seen all year continues ...just like Heartlands share price
Outlook for dairy prices apparently not that bright either
Spooky eh, really spooky
Really spooky...expecting hgh to come under further pressure today. The 10% gross yield rate arrives on a forecast of 9.5 cps fully imputed = 13.19 cps when the shares hit $1.32. Not saying they will go down that low in due course but stranger things have happened before and this one often overshoots on the high side ($2.14) and the low side.
Last edited by Beagle; 21-11-2018 at 09:37 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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21-11-2018, 09:49 AM
#11658
Originally Posted by Beagle
........as well as the significant correction of this sector in Australia ......
Yes indeed, most OZ financial insto / banks multiples falling and NZ companies are following ......and HGH price/book at 1.35 is still just above sector average
Now being touted as a trans-Tasman Group so one would expect this trend to follow ....and some punters might see HGH as more ‘risky’ than when it was a ‘bank’
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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21-11-2018, 09:52 AM
#11659
Originally Posted by winner69
Yes indeed, most OZ financial insto / banks multiples falling and NZ companies are following ......and HGH price/book at 1.35 is still just above sector average
Now being touted as a trans-Tasman Group so one would expect this trend to follow ....and some punters might see HGH as more ‘risky’ than when it was a ‘bank’
While investors will see it gives HGH greater growth opportunities.
Interesting to know the REL Australian out standing growth is continuing at the same extremely high rate.This growth will underpin HGH's positive outlook,and most probably increasing dividends.
Last edited by percy; 21-11-2018 at 10:17 AM.
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21-11-2018, 10:27 AM
#11660
I wonder how much the lack of easy information available on HGH is putting people off ?
When I look at ANZ Sec Details screen there is no dividend or yield showing.
When I try to find it in NZX I get no historical dividends or upcoming dividends.
No P/E, no eps, no NTA.
All the history has been erased with the name change.
Makes it cumbersome to find information. Especially on a scan.
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