sharetrader
Page 788 of 832 FirstFirst ... 288688738778784785786787788789790791792798 ... LastLast
Results 11,806 to 11,820 of 12468
  1. #11806
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,115

    Default

    Percy i respect your views and opinions, i am a new shareholder thankfully having entered the registry in the past few weeks. As someone who works in banking its clear to all HGH are taking higher risks to obtain the NIM they achieve which is all well and good but it doesn't sit well that they then try and compare their NIM to dare i say it real banks (those that provide full banking services (corporate, property finance, institutional etc). To try and say HGH are conservative by lending xxx LVR is a red herring one only has to look at how quickly valuations which are relied on in lending decisions are proven to be wrong and guesstimates at one point in time. Lets hope HGH earnings can be sustained through a downward cycle with particular emphasis on keeping impairments manageable.
    Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils

  2. #11807
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    12,983

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Company spokesman person Percy would refer to you...
    ... of that presentation is very much like one’s CBL Insurance produced ....designed to make sophisticated complex things clear as mud
    Is that a paid role or voluntary (got to be a part time paid role for TRA surely) lol

    Quote Originally Posted by boysy View Post
    ...but it doesn't sit well that they then try and compare their NIM to dare i say it real banks...
    This is going to be more fun than the 5th November Its the tens of millions loaned unsecured through Harmoney to hapless / reckless consumers who can't even be bothered saving up for their overseas holiday that worries me. Too easy to do a voluntary short form no asset procedure and wipe the slate clean these days.
    Last edited by Beagle; 06-01-2019 at 12:11 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #11808
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    13,205

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by boysy View Post
    Percy i respect your views and opinions, i am a new shareholder thankfully having entered the registry in the past few weeks. As someone who works in banking its clear to all HGH are taking higher risks to obtain the NIM they achieve which is all well and good but it doesn't sit well that they then try and compare their NIM to dare i say it real banks (those that provide full banking services (corporate, property finance, institutional etc). To try and say HGH are conservative by lending xxx LVR is a red herring one only has to look at how quickly valuations which are relied on in lending decisions are proven to be wrong and guesstimates at one point in time. Lets hope HGH earnings can be sustained through a downward cycle with particular emphasis on keeping impairments manageable.
    Property lending based on % of LVR is not a red hearing with HGH.
    Your 'real' banks lend up to 75% to 90% of LVR on initial lending,for terms up to 30 years,at a lot lower magin than HGH achieve with REL lending.
    HGH lend intial 11% to 12% of LVR.Average term of loan is not 30 years but between 6.6 years and 7.5 years.
    The average LVR at repayment is between 27% and 33%.
    Any deterioration in property values will be felt by your 'real' banks.
    Yes the 105 [or is she 106?] year old in Geelong, is having the last laugh at HGH's expense,but I think shareholders and management still wish her well.!..lol.
    Last edited by percy; 06-01-2019 at 12:20 PM.

  4. #11809
    Dilettante
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Nelson
    Posts
    2,907

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Property lending based on % of LVR is not a red hearing with HGH.
    Your 'real' banks lend up to 75% to 90% of LVR on initial lending,for terms up to 30 years,at a lot lower magin than HGH achieve with REL lending.
    HGH lend intial 11% to 12% of LVR.Average term of loan is not 30 years but between 6.6 years and 7.5 years.
    The average LVR at repayment is between 27% and 33%.
    Any deterioration in property values will be felt by your 'real' banks.
    Yes the 105 [or is she 106?] year old in Geelong, is having the last laugh at HGH's expense,but I think shareholders and management still wish her well.!..lol.
    Well said. HGH certainly does some lending that could be regarded as higher risk, such as Harmoney, car finance and business finance. But HGH's residential property portfolio most certainly is not high risk with the very low LVR REL's being as safe as any property lending by any bank, as you clearly lay out in your post. The "real" banks are MUCH more exposed to decline or crashes in property valuations.

  5. #11810
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,115

    Default

    The difference being those high lvr loans are P&I with people who have jobs. If they fail to pay the mortgage you can move in sell up so even if the LVR is 80% the bank can still walk away without loss.

    Quite different than interest capitalising loans where you cannot realise anything until the oldies Kark it.To call these loans lower risk is simply ignoring the different risk each type of borrower poses.

  6. #11811
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    13,205

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by boysy View Post
    The difference being those high lvr loans are P&I with people who have jobs. If they fail to pay the mortgage you can move in sell up so even if the LVR is 80% the bank can still walk away without loss.

    Quite different than interest capitalising loans where you cannot realise anything until the oldies Kark it.To call these loans lower risk is simply ignoring the different risk each type of borrower poses.
    Average length of loan on RELs is between 6.6 years and 7.5 years.
    It is not just a matter of waiting for oldies to die, as RELs are taken out for a great number of reasons,ie doing up a house for resale.
    No need to worry, ever, about them losing their jobs.! [or wanting mortgage repayment holidays].
    Last edited by percy; 06-01-2019 at 01:19 PM.

  7. #11812
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    13,205

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Well said. HGH certainly does some lending that could be regarded as higher risk, such as Harmoney, car finance and business finance. But HGH's residential property portfolio most certainly is not high risk with the very low LVR REL's being as safe as any property lending by any bank, as you clearly lay out in your post. The "real" banks are MUCH more exposed to decline or crashes in property valuations.
    I can not comment on Harmoney,or business finance,however I know HGH's MARAC has done very well with vehicle lending for 30 to 50 years.Maybe longer.
    Well I certainly got that wrong.Marac originated in 1952.!!!!!
    Last edited by percy; 06-01-2019 at 01:04 PM.

  8. #11813
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    12,983

    Default Australia's house price bloodbath

    https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/35810

    What's not in dispute is this is the worst house price bloodbath for decades. Provided it doesn't go much lower and stay low for a very long time HGH should be okay with the vast majority of their lending.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  9. #11814
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    400

    Default

    I am continuing to Buy HGH . The point being missed is that the Reserve bank proposed rules are over 5 years , give a level plasying field to the NZ banks at last on risk, and will result in AU banks doing asset sales in NZ. If you read what Cullen has to say about the AU banks in GFC you will agree with the reserve banks positions. I think HGH is cheap. Have a million shares roughly.

  10. #11815
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    13,205

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/35810

    What's not in dispute is this is the worst house price bloodbath for decades. Provided it doesn't go much lower and stay low for a very long time HGH should be okay with the vast majority of their lending.
    Thanks for the link.
    Interesting to see Tasmanian prices are still rising.
    My brother, who lives in Hobart told me his house has increased a great deal in the past couple of years.
    Was not that many years ago,maybe 5 or 6, when you could not sell your house in Hobart.
    I expect the big Australian Banks look as though they may have a very big problem on their hands.
    I seem to remember warning of this ,on this thread and ANZ Bank thread ,a couple or three of years ago.
    Last edited by percy; 06-01-2019 at 05:05 PM.

  11. #11816
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    12,983

    Default

    Another article I was reading has the Sydney house price average rate of decline accelerating most recently with a drop in the December 2018 average sale price of 1.3%, (annual rate of decline 15.6%). Down 9% already so just another 9 months of monthly declines at that rate and recent buyers putting in a 20% deposit will be in a negative equity position. I reckon some of those "real banks" could find themselves in an interesting situation with some of their customers in 2020.
    Last edited by Beagle; 06-01-2019 at 05:25 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  12. #11817
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    13,205

    Default

    Add to the mix cultural,funding,capital ratios,excessive executive pay,and branch closures, I think the Aussie banks will have a busy "interesting " year or two.What a bugger..!!..lol.
    Last edited by percy; 06-01-2019 at 05:40 PM.

  13. #11818
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    23,848

    Default

    If these ‘real banks’ start getting into strife or even go broke I would hazard a guess that Heartland activities will be affected in some way.

    In these circumstances one thing for sure it’s share price will go down
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  14. #11819
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    13,205

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    If these ‘real banks’ start getting into strife or even go broke I would hazard a guess that Heartland activities will be affected in some way.

    In these circumstances one thing for sure it’s share price will go down
    HGH's share price has already been affected by association.
    I see the 'real banks' adapting to changing circumstances,as they always have done so..
    I remember 1990, or there abouts, when commercial real estate looked to just about break the Aussie Banks.Kerry Packer's "threat" to take over Westpac was the low point.Was it $2 per share or $3.00?.The rest is all history as they say.

  15. #11820
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    12,983

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Add to the mix cultural,funding,capital ratios,excessive executive pay,and branch closures, I think the Aussie banks will have a busy "interesting " year or two.What a bugger..!!..lol.
    Bet ya the boards of those Aussie banks are "absolutely thrilled" about the prospect of having to potentially meet 14% capital ratio's for their N.Z. operations lol.
    All HGH has to do is continue is DRP program and they're sweet
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •