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  1. #14071
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by King1212 View Post
    Let this kamatua translate master Beagle prediction....$2 target n 8 c dividend...kiora...
    Better switch back to good old English so nothing is lost in the translation eps of 17 cents x mid range PE (for HGH) of 14 suggests $2.38 is not completely implausible in due course.
    HGH is actually rated by the credit rating agency as BBB and by me as BBB although my meaning is a little different lol (Beagle busy buying) for those that don't know
    Last edited by Beagle; 30-11-2020 at 05:37 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #14072
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    Hahha.. classic!!

  3. #14073
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Jeff says - the possibility of structuring the Bank’s Motor business as a separate entity

    Marac IPO ....surely not
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #14074
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Jeff says - the possibility of structuring the Bank’s Motor business as a separate entity

    Marac IPO ....surely not

    Let's have some fun on a dreamed up version of maximising shareholder value -

    In-specie distribution to HGH Holders of new stand alone Motor Business finance division with NZX listing
    - then merge with MTF ..

    Everyone would be smiling all round ..

  5. #14075
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    Held back dividends will be paid out eventually to shareholders in one way or the other, that's key message came out of today's ASM

  6. #14076
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    According to a behind the paywall headline on Interest.co Heartland. are considering making their vehicle finance a stand alone subsidary.
    Anybody able to elaborate on this?

  7. #14077
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    It was in yesterdays CEO address. No firm decisions have been made

  8. #14078
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    Brief Update from For Barr. Valuation increased to $1.45
    UNDERPERFORM
    Heartland Group Holdings (HGH) provided a brief trading update at its Annual General Meeting (AGM), reiterating its FY21
    NPAT guidance of NZ$83m–NZ$85m and estimating NPAT to be tracking around NZ$30m for the first four months of FY21.
    We increase our FY21 NPAT forecast to NZ$65m, raising group loan receivables from 6.4% to 9.7% in light of stronger than
    expected motor loan receivable growth. Our FY21 NPAT estimate is lower than guidance due to 1) taking a more cautious
    view on impairments; in contrast management expects to see no adverse impairment impacts as a result of COVID-19, 2) we
    see risk of loan receivable growth softening in 2H21 given the group's 0.8% loan growth in 2H20, and 3) we expect to see
    continued net interest margin (NIM) compression across the business, corroborated by comments made by the RBNZ in its
    recent monetary policy statement. We do recognise there is upside risk to numbers in a bull case economic scenario.
    Considering HGH's risk profile, the level of macroeconomic uncertainty remaining, exposure to unsecured loans through
    Harmoney and the ongoing elevated expenditure related to 'digital' we retain our UNDERPERFORM rating.
    What's changed?
    RBNZ latest monetary policy statement suggestive of further NIM compression for smaller banks
    The RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report released 25 November 2020, corroborates our view that a prolonged period of stimulatory
    monetary policy is likely in its current form to create a number of headwinds for HGH. This is further underpinned by 1) sustained
    ultra-low interest rates which will likely continue to apply pressure to HGH’s NIM (Net Interest Margin) through reduced retail
    interest rates, 2) HGH not participating in the RBNZ’s Funding for Lending Program (FLP) — expected to be implemented early
    December 2020, and 3) competitors (the big four NZ banks) receiving funding at the OCR, decreasing the average funding cost of the
    NZ banking industry and further widening the funding gap between HGH and competitors. In its Financial Stability Report, the RBNZ
    stated ‘Banks with high proportions of funding from retail sources, including most of the smaller banks in New Zealand, would see greater NIM
    compression as their funding costs would not fall by as much as the interest rates they would be able to earn on their assets’.
    NIM reflective of risk profile
    The RBNZ dashboard reports HGH's NIM to be 4.5% against peer banks ANZ (1.9%), BNZ (2.0%), ASB (2.1%) and Westpac (1.9%). We
    view the implication of a higher risk loan book to translate into higher impairment expenses. However, for HGH this may roll into
    FY22 and beyond if HGH's 'Extend' product is used to re-finance non-performing

  9. #14079
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Forbar forecast puts HGH on a forward PE of 13ish

    Seems about right --- even compared to Aussie banks
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #14080
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greekwatchdog View Post
    Brief Update from For Barr. Valuation increased to $1.45
    UNDERPERFORM
    Heartland Group Holdings (HGH) provided a brief trading update at its Annual General Meeting (AGM), reiterating its FY21
    NPAT guidance of NZ$83m–NZ$85m and estimating NPAT to be tracking around NZ$30m for the first four months of FY21.
    We increase our FY21 NPAT forecast to NZ$65m, raising group loan receivables from 6.4% to 9.7% in light of stronger than
    expected motor loan receivable growth. Our FY21 NPAT estimate is lower than guidance due to 1) taking a more cautious
    view on impairments; in contrast management expects to see no adverse impairment impacts as a result of COVID-19, 2) we
    see risk of loan receivable growth softening in 2H21 given the group's 0.8% loan growth in 2H20, and 3) we expect to see
    continued net interest margin (NIM) compression across the business, corroborated by comments made by the RBNZ in its
    recent monetary policy statement. We do recognise there is upside risk to numbers in a bull case economic scenario.
    Considering HGH's risk profile, the level of macroeconomic uncertainty remaining, exposure to unsecured loans through
    Harmoney and the ongoing elevated expenditure related to 'digital' we retain our UNDERPERFORM rating.
    What's changed?
    RBNZ latest monetary policy statement suggestive of further NIM compression for smaller banks
    The RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report released 25 November 2020, corroborates our view that a prolonged period of stimulatory
    monetary policy is likely in its current form to create a number of headwinds for HGH. This is further underpinned by 1) sustained
    ultra-low interest rates which will likely continue to apply pressure to HGH’s NIM (Net Interest Margin) through reduced retail
    interest rates, 2) HGH not participating in the RBNZ’s Funding for Lending Program (FLP) — expected to be implemented early
    December 2020, and 3) competitors (the big four NZ banks) receiving funding at the OCR, decreasing the average funding cost of the
    NZ banking industry and further widening the funding gap between HGH and competitors. In its Financial Stability Report, the RBNZ
    stated ‘Banks with high proportions of funding from retail sources, including most of the smaller banks in New Zealand, would see greater NIM
    compression as their funding costs would not fall by as much as the interest rates they would be able to earn on their assets’.
    NIM reflective of risk profile
    The RBNZ dashboard reports HGH's NIM to be 4.5% against peer banks ANZ (1.9%), BNZ (2.0%), ASB (2.1%) and Westpac (1.9%). We
    view the implication of a higher risk loan book to translate into higher impairment expenses. However, for HGH this may roll into
    FY22 and beyond if HGH's 'Extend' product is used to re-finance non-performing
    What are these guys thinking??? Suggesting a FY21 NPAT of $65 million when heartland has already generated $30 million in first 4 months and describes there $83-$85 million NPAT as conservative already. (and that doesn't include positive NPAT impact from harmony IPO)

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