sharetrader
  1. #14281
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Hmmm...my nose for a feed is giving a pretty good reading that there's a forecast upgrade coming. Join the dots... Plenty of evidence that lending is going gangbusters, Turners signaling loan delinquencies are down, HGH signaling they're trading ahead of forecast to 31 October and not using any of the previous covid provisions...
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #14282
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    With everything looking bright on the market ...upgrades galore and all the other good news ....I’m beginning to feel euphoric

    Some would say that’s a bad thing (market wise) but I have no worries
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #14283
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,221

    Default

    The uptake in reverse mortgages is encouraging for shareholders, after the year ended June 30th result suggested reverse mortgages growth was well below my forecast target. I speculated at the time that the below par result may have been as a result of 'stunned mullet paralysis' caused by Covid-19. Retired home owners were 'sitting on their hands' while taking in what was going on around them and postponing the big decisions.

    This article supports my speculation.

    "Heartland head of retail Andrew Ford said soaring house prices and low interest rates were contributing to the increased uptake."

    At the beginning of the Covid-19 era, it was far from clear that house prices would soar. Low interest rates were predicted. But that was expected because of lack of demand, not because of massive government pump priming making term deposit savings redundant.

    The comment:

    "20 per cent increase in mortgage approvals during the six months to December 31 compared to the same period in 2019"

    is, I think, slightly misleading. It is likely that some of that 20% is a catch up from the relatively depressed immediate half year comparative period of 1st January to 30th June that incorporated the worst of the lockdowns. That reference period is carefully not mentioned. So I remain confident that my recent modelling assumptions with a middle scenario of 14.7% annual Reverse Mortgage growth remains in the ball park (see my post 13772).

    I don't expect house prices will continue to soar. But as long as there is no severe housing correction the 'Covid soar' should benefit the mindset of future retirees who have a larger 'house bank' to draw funds from than they ever thought possible. And future retirees are future Heartland reverse mortgage customers.

    With some regular mortgage rates nudging 2%, that 5.95% reverse mortgage rate sounds very healthy for Heartland shareholders!

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 20-01-2021 at 12:14 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  4. #14284
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    With everything looking bright on the market ...upgrades galore and all the other good news ....I’m beginning to feel euphoric

    Some would say that’s a bad thing (market wise) but I have no worries
    Oysters and chips for lunch down at the beach with your dogs ? Don't forget their pet treats
    Last edited by Beagle; 20-01-2021 at 09:22 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #14285
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    You've all got me super excited so I had a look at my forecast ..... and increased F21 forecast

    Here's what EPS looks like on a chart with my forecast in dotted line

    Hope the excitment is warranted because it's upset the 'stability' of the trend and a really steep increase compared to recent years.

    One thing the chart shows is how Jeff the master of earnings smoothing has done a good job .... that's how he came up with his 83m to 85m guidance ... and I wouldn't be surprised if he managed earnings to this level to keep the 'smoothing' in place. However things maybe so good that even Jeff has to upset that stability.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #14286
    Dilettante
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Down & out
    Posts
    5,407

    Default

    Another A$75m of fixed interest funding for the fast growing Aussie reverse mortgages, up to A$ 220m now
    https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=5585805

  7. #14287
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Posts
    142

    Default

    Heartland sponsoring the Black Clash

  8. #14288
    Legend
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Everywhere
    Posts
    6,924

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Lion_graf View Post
    Heartland sponsoring the Black Clash
    I see that .. very good sponsorship opportunity & HGH brand exposure too

  9. #14289
    Guru
    Join Date
    Feb 2020
    Location
    Nelson
    Posts
    3,685

    Default

    My largest holding. The resilience during the pandemic was impressive and hopefully it will be followed up with some more positive news.
    Last edited by Panda-NZ-; 23-01-2021 at 10:44 PM.

  10. #14290
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    903

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Panda-NZ- View Post
    My largest holding.. the resilience during the pandemic was impressive and hopefully it will be followed up with some positive news.
    Scored mine @ .91c when she nose dived last year so far looking great.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •