What a great video - I would need about four beagles to get my blubber to safety! I have short hair so nothing for the determined hound to yank on at the end!
Must admit the inherent cynic in me thinks they pulled off a pretty creative accounting trick meeting profit guidance and still within 10% of guidance on the Covid adjusted figure so they met their ongoing continuous disclosure requirements too. First impressions were "yeah right" its time for a Tui but its hard to argue with the fact that they're one of only two Australian banks that have not had their credit rating downgraded and they must be confident going forward to forecast $83-85m for FY21.
I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for a modest stake as part of a well diversified portfolio.
Mid point of forecast at $84m will give 14.5 cps so at $1.28 as I type that's a forward PE of 8.8.
Last edited by Beagle; 17-09-2020 at 11:31 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
You all finished reading (& understanding) Note 8 of the Financial Statements?
Yeah, noticed that - it feels their assumptions are quite optimistic (well, more optimistic than the scenarios I've seen the bigger banks using, but this was 3 months ago).
The old saying is that optimists are not more often correct than pessimists, but optimists do live longer, which is good for them (I suppose).
Are their assumptions re impaired assets too optimistic? - I recon we will see that over the next 2 to 3 years, won't we?
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
To date all lenders have been too bearish, but that's OK as no-one knew what was going to happen with Covid. It now seems that the NZ economy is doing much better than everyone thought and the AU economy has been OK for bad debts because a lot of individual super funds have been used to reduce debt. I am going to assume that HGH management will continue to be cautious on their provisioning, which is fine with me as there is much more chance of an upward surprise.I am a very happy holder sub $1.20.
I’m very happy and relieved with the result and divi as HGH is a major holding for me.
The projected 2021 year also looking good.
Would be interesting to know what proportion of the next years npat would be eligible for dividend payment considering the Reserve Bank restrictions?
this justification of not paying full divi due to RB restrictions sounds like a bit of a crock to me. Hadnt they specifically stated they werent affected because they werent a bank they're a holding company that owns a bank. I get they may not want to pay out a divi - at least there is no cash raise huh! - but I didnt think they were restricted from paying one, and yet here it appears they are fobbing us off with that excuse
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Originally Posted by Snow Leopard
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