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19-02-2019, 09:31 AM
#12031
Today is the day that yesterday we worried about,and all is well.
Steady divie,
Solid growth,
No need for extra capital.
Profit affected by "break fees" for the restructure and new IFRS9 impairments methodolgy.
Aussie REL growth 24.9%
Open for business growth 56.2%.
Good seeing large Rural and business loans being reduced.Good risk management.
Motor Vehicle lending still strong.
Very positve outlook.
Last edited by percy; 19-02-2019 at 10:03 AM.
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19-02-2019, 09:32 AM
#12032
Originally Posted by minimoke
"Whilst Heartland considers that it could still achieve a result at thebottom end of guidance, it would come at a cost to further investment in growth. Accordingly, an updated guidance range of $73 million to $75 million is now considered prudent. The midpoint of that range would see the delivery of approximately 10% NPAT growth for FY19 compared to FY18."
Thats one weird statement ....not really that good if you think it through
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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19-02-2019, 09:34 AM
#12033
Originally Posted by percy
Today is the day that yesterday we worried about,and all is well.
Steady divie,
Solid growth,
No need for extra capital.
Profit affected by "break fees" for the restructure and new IFRS9 impairments metodolgy.
Aussie REL growth 24.9%
Open for business growth 56.2%.
Good seeing large Rural and business loans being reduced.Good risk management.
Motor Vehicle lending still strong.
Very positve outlook.
I agree Percy. A good 'steady as she goes' result and if the one off costs are removed - it looks even better. A long term hold for me and happy to accumulate more on any price dips.
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19-02-2019, 09:34 AM
#12034
Originally Posted by Balance
Looks ok, especially no capital raise but I think this will continue to be an issue for the market - question of when, not if?
Downgrade has been anticipated by some in the market but probably not all.
The metrics look more than satisfactory to me. Forward PE just 10.0 as mentioned and gross yield assuming no divvy increase is 9.62% (adjusting the current price for the 3.5 cps one gets back next month). Company is growing fine and I think its a sound investment for modest growth going forward and the present yield is compelling.
I expect RBNZ to moderate their initial approach to capital adequacy after heavy criticism from virtually all industry participants so I don't see the capital raise that you and others think is coming but even if one is forthcoming on the above metrics I think it would be well supported by the market. I think what the market didn't see coming with this result is the present extremely high FX rate with Australia. I doubt it will remain up where it is for long so FX one-off's could easily reverse.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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19-02-2019, 09:35 AM
#12035
Originally Posted by Beagle
2.1m in one off costs relating to capital restructure, listing on the ASX and unfavourable FX rate. Strip that out and the result looks pretty good. Remember these are one off costs and non recurring.
"In the absence of an unanticipated increase in growth or an acquisition, the Group has no current need to raise equity from shareholders other than thorough the Dividend Reinvestment Plan. A combination of retained earnings reinvested through the Dividend Reinvestment Plan and other sources are sufficient for funding business as usual growth".
$74m guidance, mid point represents 13.1 cps. Normalised for removal of one-off's above that would be 13.44 cps. Normalised the company is on a forward PE of just 10.0 As cheap as it has been in many years.
No capital raise ! Happy to hold as on the current price I think the shares are very cheap.
Agree and the result looks fine by me. Still good steady and profitable growth in their areas of focus and the result reasonable despite the one off costs of the restructure, ASX listing and regulatory changes that have increase impairment provisions. Clearly they are still looking at future funding mentioning they Australian bonds and exploring longterm offshore funding. No doubt a capital raise is still in the mix and as Balance points out, we may well still see one further down the track. I'm content.
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19-02-2019, 09:36 AM
#12036
Originally Posted by winner69
Beagle ..I thought you didn’t really approve of ‘normalising’ things
What’s the next ‘non-recurring’ item going to be?
Restructuring costs are a clear one-off. I expect FX one-off's to reverse. Going forward I think one is wise to look at the underlying growth in lending. I expect sound and steady eps growth in FY19 and for the foreseeable future. Forward PE is just 10 and they are growing eps nicely. How compelling does it need to get before one adds more to their position at the current price ?
Last edited by Beagle; 19-02-2019 at 09:39 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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19-02-2019, 09:40 AM
#12037
I'm with Percy and Beagle on this one. Satisfactory result. Relax, move on. (Disc - v small holding.)
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19-02-2019, 09:43 AM
#12038
Member
The shares are underpriced. glad I have been buying and will continue to build up.
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19-02-2019, 09:45 AM
#12039
Originally Posted by percy
Today is the day that yesterday we worried about,and all is well.
Steady divie,
Solid growth,
No need for extra capital.
Profit affected by "break fees" for the restructure and new IFRS9 impairments metodolgy.
Aussie REL growth 24.9%
Open for business growth 56.2%.
Good seeing large Rural and business loans being reduced.Good risk management.
Motor Vehicle lending still strong.
Very positve outlook.
Agree 100%. In case its not blindingly obviously already folks, first half is $33.1m and at the mid point of guidance this suggest second half profit of ~ $41m !
I think some people need to have a good think about what that suggests for FY20 profitability ! I know I am...could be in the region of $85m up nearly 15% on Fy19's $74m and all without the need for extra capital. Hmmmm. ~ 15 cps earnings next year should see the shares rerated to at least $1.50 in my opinion.
Last edited by Beagle; 19-02-2019 at 09:49 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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19-02-2019, 10:09 AM
#12040
Suppose pretty solid result but not stunnng as Heartlands results are sometimes described as
Solid growth to continue
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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