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07-06-2016, 07:00 PM
#7671
Originally Posted by K1W1G0LD
The canine is writing a book , not a very good one and using all the other posters to do his proofreading for him ........not gonna fly , never get off the ground too many errors and far too long winded .
There is a difference between a forum and a book publishing site!
The stuff I write on this site is the sort of stuff I formerly would have written on a dog eared bit of paper, then filed it away to relook at come next results time. These kind of notes are by their nature error prone, either in mathematics or judgement. Yet by filing these notes away and coming back to them later you can often get a better view of the 'big picture'. And sometimes, when posted here, fellow contributors can point these errors out, they can be corrected, and a better view of the big picture emerges.
There is an alternative. I could keep all my notes in my self constructed ivory tower. Pour over them with candles at midnight, until months later I publish my self congratulated 'magnum opus' result. At that point the errors are found and I come crashing down with my ziggurat, the spire of which promptly impails me through my rear end. I then limp off into the sunset never to seen or heard from again. Now I am sure there are some on this forum who would relish such a happening. Yes it would be entertaining. But it wouldn't help anyone understand Heartland any better!
Don't be too quick to dish the mistakes. One usually learns a lot more from one's mistakes than from one's correctness. It is the end result that matters. The path taken to get there has many divides and many dead end corners.
As for being long winded, the best analysis of any situation is to make it as simple as possible, but no simpler. I generally work by starting out with a few more complex ideas, different ways of measuring the things I deem that need measuring. Then I hone the procedures to make them simpler. Don't think analysing a bank can be reduced to rehashing a couple of quotes from the results presentation.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 07-06-2016 at 07:13 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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07-06-2016, 07:54 PM
#7672
Originally Posted by Snoopy
There is a difference between a forum and a book publishing site!
The stuff I write on this site is the sort of stuff I formerly would have written on a dog eared bit of paper, then filed it away to relook at come next results time. These kind of notes are by their nature error prone, either in mathematics or judgement. Yet by filing these notes away and coming back to them later you can often get a better view of the 'big picture'. And sometimes, when posted here, fellow contributors can point these errors out, they can be corrected, and a better view of the big picture emerges.
There is an alternative. I could keep all my notes in my self constructed ivory tower. Pour over them with candles at midnight, until months later I publish my self congratulated 'magnum opus' result. At that point the errors are found and I come crashing down with my ziggurat, the spire of which promptly impails me through my rear end. I then limp off into the sunset never to seen or heard from again. Now I am sure there are some on this forum who would relish such a happening. Yes it would be entertaining. But it wouldn't help anyone understand Heartland any better!
Don't be too quick to dish the mistakes. One usually learns a lot more from one's mistakes than from one's correctness. It is the end result that matters. The path taken to get there has many divides and many dead end corners.
As for being long winded, the best analysis of any situation is to make it as simple as possible, but no simpler. I generally work by starting out with a few more complex ideas, different ways of measuring the things I deem that need measuring. Then I hone the procedures to make them simpler. Don't think analysing a bank can be reduced to rehashing a couple of quotes from the results presentation.
SNOOPY
Better aspire than the spire .. Aye Squire..
Appreciate those notes ..
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07-06-2016, 07:57 PM
#7673
Keep the dear Diary going Snoop; it all adds to the fascinating Mashup on S/T.
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07-06-2016, 07:58 PM
#7674
Snoopy, your 2nd to last paragraph speaks volumes about you in a good way, humility is a very attractive attribute.
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07-06-2016, 08:01 PM
#7675
Originally Posted by Snoopy
These kind of notes are by their nature error prone, either in mathematics or judgement.
SNOOPY
They certainly have been.Nearly 5 years now on this thread.Go back to your first post on this thread and ask yourself are you any further ahead?
May pay to stick to Heartland's presentations, as we know their mathematics and judgement are sound.
Last edited by percy; 07-06-2016 at 08:12 PM.
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07-06-2016, 08:26 PM
#7676
Don't stop posting Snoopy, the ostriches can put you on ignore if it offends them. Personally I think your posts are amongst the select few who shed light on investments and company's financial health, and I appreciate the iterative disclosure, the discovery of the facts, by analysis and discussion. Certainly better than blind belief in the spewage spin many company's choose to disgorge. And a word on your generosity in sharing your analysis, it is appreciated by many, I'm sure. It seems the small number of cheerleaders who choose to bite on every shred of possibility that all is not what it might seem to be, without the wherewithal to post a conflicting analysis posit of their own work, are not the audience who appreciate your good work.
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08-06-2016, 06:16 AM
#7677
Auckland-based lender, Heartland Bank told investors dairy farm values could drop as much as 40% from peak to trough if the downturn continues. Exposure to dairy farmers make up 8% of the bank’s total lending book and 17% of its net receivable and its average loan-to-value ratio for dairy loans is 59%. Heartland executives said the majority of dairy farms could convert to sheep or beef farms if dairy prices stayed low or got worse as the dairy farms values would effectively be underwritten by the value of sheep or beef farms. The presentation was published to NZX with Heartland Bank shares remaining at NZ$1.27, having dropped 3.8% since the start of the year.
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08-06-2016, 08:42 AM
#7678
I find it reassuring that Heartland Bank have spoken openly about their 8% exposure to dairying,while the Australian Banks who have a lot larger % exposure [above 10% and possibly 12%] have remained silent.
Last edited by percy; 08-06-2016 at 08:43 AM.
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08-06-2016, 08:45 AM
#7679
Originally Posted by percy
I find it reassuring that Heartland Bank have spoken openly about their exposure to dairying,while the Australian Banks who have a lot larger % exposure [above 10% and possibly 12%] have remained silent.
True, percy, but that's in the NZ-only context. Their exposure on a group basis is much lower, it's the mining sector that's worrying them!
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08-06-2016, 08:53 AM
#7680
Originally Posted by macduffy
True, percy, but that's in the NZ-only context. Their exposure on a group basis is much lower, it's the mining sector that's worrying them!
I believe the mining sector exposure is about 3-5% of the major aussie banks books... so like Dairy in NZ, I don't know why everyone is jumping up and down so much about a sector (ie Dairy for HBL, mining for aussie banks) with exposure of mid single digit percentages... of course some isolated impairments and losses may be in order, but I doubt HBL or ANZ will be plunging into losses anytime soon
Last edited by trader_jackson; 08-06-2016 at 08:59 AM.
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