Stock: HGH
Prediction month: January 2019
Forecast month: January 2020
Share price (peak) in January 2019
$1.43
Consensus forecast for January 2020
$1.58
actual shareprice (peak) in January 2020
$1.87
Share price did rise, as predicted, but instead of the predicted 10.5% it actually did rise by 30.8%; according to the rules this is a failed prediction, which might be a bit harsh. Need to think about this
consensus recommendation in January 2019
outperform (6,25/10)
actual 12 month growth vs NZX50
outperformed NZX50 by 10%
PREDICTION PASS
Rating of the analysts so far:
6 stocks checked (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus shareprice forecasts correct: 1/6; analyst hitrate: 17%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 2/6; analyst hitrate: 33%
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Half yearly report out tomorrow. Thoughts? Predictions? Expectations?
The good....Solid increases in O4B and RELs.Further reduction in big loans [ rural and business].
The not so good....Increase spend on systems and other compliance overheads.No increase in divie.
Expecting a modest increase in profit and no change in dividend.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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