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  1. #10331
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Hmm. Look like I may need to save some cash for the next capital raise sooner than expected

  2. #10332
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    On the other hand, Chris Lee just posted his first weekly newsletter for the year pontificating that based on ~ $60m in profit ANZ could raise "the thick end of a billion dollars" listing UDC on the market. Why discount this heavily just for the sake of a quick sale to Heartland ?...after all its not like ANZ is a forced seller is it !
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #10333
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    That would appear to be the nub of the issue. They're presently paying well over the odds at 2.75% to attract at call money..one wonders how much of that support disappears overnight at the slightest hint of additional risk / gearing or the hint of a hurdle to replace the ANZ support you've highlighted ? (My money would be out of there the same day any deal was announced that at least didn't maintain the current capital ratio and ensure HBL had a really long period of time to garner support from debenture holders to replace ANZ funding). On the other hand one would imagine there would be considerable synergies between the two finance companies, opps I mean finance company and bank.
    Jeff Greenslade was a director of UDC.
    Other senior HBL management staff are ex UDC.
    UDC would be a perfect fit.
    Instos would rerate HBL immediately up to $2.50.
    Raising the equity capital would not be an issue.
    The issue would be UDC bond lenders,most of whom would have been attracted to UDC via ANZ,remaining depositors.
    That would take a couple of years to settle down.
    Always remember HBL have the highest net interest margin of all the listed banks.
    Last edited by percy; 18-01-2018 at 02:22 PM.

  4. #10334
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Perhaps Percy but ANZ will want maximum $ and the NZX is desperate for new listings so I think Chris Lee makes a good point.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #10335
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Perhaps Percy but ANZ will want maximum $ and the NZX is desperate for new listings so I think Chris Lee makes a good point.
    How many listed banks / finance companies do we need?

  6. #10336
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Perhaps Percy but ANZ will want maximum $ and the NZX is desperate for new listings so I think Chris Lee makes a good point.
    Agreed,but as I pointed out before, ANZ usually sell off what they now consider to be non-core assets, with trade sales.

  7. #10337
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Perhaps Percy but ANZ will want maximum $ and the NZX is desperate for new listings so I think Chris Lee makes a good point.
    Chris Lee also seems to take a swipe at share forums like this one...he's referring to sharechat.co.nz, although that doesn't seem to have a forum attached to it...is sharetrader run by IRG?
    (Anyway, I still value the insight I get on sharetrader, but obviously interesting to see his views).

    "It runs one of the dreadful internet chat forums, where anonymous idiots mingle with sharemarket traders, debating matters of the market, with or without knowledge, but certainly without constraint."

  8. #10338
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Lee has his very own forum - only problem is there's just one member, who debates matters of the market, with or without knowledge, and certainly without constraint. Powerhouse anyone?
    Last edited by Xerof; 18-01-2018 at 04:43 PM.

  9. #10339
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Jeff Greenslade was a director of UDC.
    Other senior HBL management staff are ex UDC.
    UDC would be a perfect fit.
    Instos would rerate HBL immediately up to $2.50.
    Raising the equity capital would not be an issue.
    The issue would be UDC bond lenders,most of whom would have been attracted to UDC via ANZ,remaining depositors.
    That would take a couple of years to settle down.
    Always remember HBL have the highest net interest margin of all the listed banks.
    Not just a matter of retaining the bond lenders though, if, as suggested, ANZ has also funded UDC to the tune of $2b. Unless, of course, ANZ could be persuaded/induced to continue. But that would appear to be contrary to their original intention to quit finance companies and other "fringe" activities.

  10. #10340
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Not just a matter of retaining the bond lenders though, if, as suggested, ANZ has also funded UDC to the tune of $2b. Unless, of course, ANZ could be persuaded/induced to continue. But that would appear to be contrary to their original intention to quit finance companies and other "fringe" activities.
    Exactly.This is the "catch 22 " ANZ have found themselves in.
    Quitting UDC has had the reverse effect.ANZ have had to replace the fleeing bond holders.So more money in.No money out.
    I can't see HBL agreeing to buying UDC, without some arrangement over the $2 b plus ANZ have had to support UDC borrowings.
    How long that support would be required my take someone of Chris Lee's calibre to tell us..lol.
    Then on the other hand we could just guess at two years.
    Last edited by percy; 18-01-2018 at 05:08 PM.

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