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  1. #1
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    Default Contact Energy - CEN Chart

    The best stocks are usually quite boring and CEN is no exception. Contact Energy went nowhere for well over a year back around 2002, but those that bought on the breakout above this trading range have been well rewarded - Contact Energy has now been in a steady uptrend for nearly 3 years, so far. Such buyers would be looking to sell on a break of the confirmed trendline or perhaps a Close below the 200 day ema or a 13% trailing stop. Current price action is well above these 3 indicators.

    This post is not to highlight an historical opportunity that some of you probably missed, but rather to illustrate the use of oscillators to time entry into a stock that is already in an uptrend. Many hard-line fundamentalists claim that no attempt should be made to time entry into the market, because, they say, it is impossible to do so effectively. These are the advocates of "dollar cost averaging" whereby you simply buy anytime without regard to current price action. The basic idea is that sometimes you will buy high, sometimes low, so that overall you average out your entry price. The premise here is that it is impossible to beat the average. This is nonsense.

    Take a look at the attached chart. On it are plotted "Buy" signals from a range of oscillators. You can see that pretty much without exception these have all flagged excellent entry points into this stock. Often these occur in clusters as multiple signals are triggered at around the same time. It is patently obvious that use of these "Buy" signals would beat any system based on purely random entry points. Anyone wanting more signals than are plotted here would use shorter oscillator time periods. Use of longer time periods would give fewer signals, if that was what you wanted. Varying the period allows you to control the sensitivity of the indicator and thus the number of signals it generates.

    Last edited by STMOD; 22-06-2017 at 10:08 AM. Reason: added Contact Energy to title

  2. #2
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    What a great stock Phaedrus The only NZ stock I hold, in fact.

    Interesting from the behavioural finance point of view in so many ways - not in the least because so many ppl (and a few here), have said over the last few years that it is too "expensive" to buy. They would rather buy the penny dreadfuls. I have never understood that attitude - where is the logic.

  3. #3
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    "the use of oscillators to time entry into a stock that is already in an uptrend"

    In other words "buy on dips".
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
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  4. #4
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    In other words "buy on certain dips"

    edit: certain as in those where the numbers are right
    om mani peme hum

  5. #5
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    The osciallators will also tend to have you buy on a certain level of recovery from the dips -- which may mean you won't get the cheapest possible price, but are hopefully buying when the price is rebounding out of the dip, rather than preparing to dip further. I think.

  6. #6
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    I have no idea what this is all about, but Mr Market seems fairly happy.... Always good to agree with His Honour
    quote:REL: 1357 HRS Contact Energy Limited

    GENERAL: CEN: Clutha Reconsenting:Intention to Volunteer Cmpensation Regime

    CLUTHA RE-CONSENTING: CONTACT ANNOUNCES INTENTION TO VOLUNTEER COMPENSATION
    REGIME

    Contact Energy today confirmed its intention to volunteer a compensation
    regime to cope with flooding risk at Alexandra, as part of the process of
    securing resource consents for its hydro-electric operations on the
    Clutha/Matau River.

    On 22 July 2005, the Environment Court released its decision in respect of
    Contact's resource consent appeals for the ongoing operations of the Clutha
    power stations.

    In his decision, Judge Jackson invited Contact to volunteer a compensation
    condition to address the risk of flooding at Alexandra.

    The Judge indicated that he would confirm the 35 year term granted for Lake
    Roxburgh in the event that Contact volunteered such a condition. The decision
    in respect of the term of 35 years granted for the operation of Lakes Dunstan
    and Hawea is already final.

    Contact has now reviewed the Court's decision in detail and intends to
    volunteer a compensation condition as suggested by Judge Jackson.

    "There are some details to be worked through, including the exact wording of
    the conditions of the consents," said Contact's General Manager, Operations,
    David Thomas. "We look forward to working with the Otago Regional Council,
    other interested parties and the Court to achieve this over next few months.

    "The process to achieve resource consents for our Clutha operations has been
    a long and testing one," said Mr Thomas. "However, we are optimistic that we
    can achieve an outcome, based on Judge Jackson's recommended approach, that
    will deliver a robust, long term and positive outcome for all parties to the
    process."

    The appeal period for those aspects of the Environment Court's decision that
    are final has now passed. There have been no appeals filed.
    Marriage isn't a word. It's a sentence

  7. #7
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    CEN closed at 7.31.

    I imagine it has crossed that green trend line on the above graph.

    I would be thnking about selling rather than buying more.

    On the other hand if you had bought more on FBU in it's recent dip you would have been rewarded.
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

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  9. #9
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    yes the trend is still in-tact
    and if yu used the last 4 signal cluster given in the first chart to time your entry, you may be wondering if yu did the right thing
    have faith
    dont pull the trigger too early[:X]

    perhaps may-be the CEN money is going into vector?

  10. #10
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    quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

    CEN closed at 7.31.

    I imagine it has crossed that green trend line on the above graph.

    I would be thnking about selling rather than buying more.

    On the other hand if you had bought more on FBU in it's recent dip you would have been rewarded.
    Thanks Phaedrus,

    So not yet.
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  11. #11
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    Hi Phaedrus,

    Down 7c today. Must be pretty close to breaking the trendline?

    Thanks in advance.

    SSB

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    SSB,
    About 4 cents to go yet.

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    Thanks Phaedrus, nice one. And so prompt!

    Notice that share price seems to go up early in the day, and drops later in the afternoon.

  14. #14
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    Obviously influenced by the
    SUN

    [8D]
    om mani peme hum

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    Exactery PT.


  16. #16
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    CEN bounced off the long term trend line when it hit a low of $7.30 last week and broke the short term down trend line the following day.
    As it put on a few cents yesterday hopefully (for I have bought some) it will continue the long term uptrend for some time to come.
    om mani peme hum

  17. #17
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    quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


    As it put on a few cents yesterday hopefully (for I have bought some) it will continue the long term uptrend for some time to come.
    At least until I buy it tomorrow...[}]

  18. #18
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    I hope MBBrave has been doing his selling

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    ...and I presume Lizard did not buy
    Nice to see the recovery gathering momentum.
    om mani peme hum

  20. #20
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    quote:Originally posted by Major von Tempsky

    I hope MBBrave has been doing his selling
    You hope in vain!

    I bought a few at 7.44.

    Wrong again MTV, - not a new experience though is it?
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

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