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  1. #11911
    Senior Member King1212's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtech View Post
    Four more shopping days to either grab the bargain of the century or land more in debt.

    19/02/2019 at 08:31, we will be patting ourselves on the back for getting in early, or crying buckets of tears
    according to the market it is more likely crying buckets of teas with tissue wiping eyes nonstop?

  2. #11912
    Trying to get outta here
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtech View Post
    Heck, I've just seen the closing price ... where did that come from?

    I've been holding off from topping up ... don't really have the cash ... but I might just have to dig deep.
    A real bargain unlike nearly all the other divvy paying stocks at the moment.

  3. #11913
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    A real bargain unlike nearly all the other divvy paying stocks at the moment.
    Market obviously expecting something baaad?

    Very strange that the intos are not putting up their hands.

  4. #11914
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    NZ $80,000 is a lot of money to save.
    You living in that hotel for 3 years.?
    Told my broker I had saved 80,000 Thai Baht (less than NZ$4,000) by cancelling the Executive Suite and sleeping on a park bench (though the squirrel reckons I should be paying something) and to spend it on HGH.

    One panic exchange of emails later...

    Quote Originally Posted by oldtech View Post
    Heck, I've just seen the closing price ... where did that come from?

    I've been holding off from topping up ... don't really have the cash ... but I might just have to dig deep.
    broker desperately trying to sell $76,000 of HGH he bought in error.
    om mani peme hum

  5. #11915
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    Told my broker I had saved 80,000 Thai Baht (less than NZ$4,000) by cancelling the Executive Suite and sleeping on a park bench (though the squirrel reckons I should be paying something) and to spend it on HGH.

    One panic exchange of emails later...

    broker desperately trying to sell $76,000 of HGH he bought in error.
    LOL

    "Sell, dammit, SELL!"

  6. #11916
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    Not long to wait either way, housing market in AUS and NZ not helping sentiment in the interim, banks had a relief rally seems HGH bypassed. How much negativity and growth is built into the SP is the $64,000 question...
    Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils

  7. #11917
    A BEARISH BULL winner69's Avatar
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    Share price down about 17% since the great restructure - is the market saying they didn’t think the restructuring was such a great idea.

    Seems years ago the share price was as low as this

    Half year report has to be a doozy or else anything could happen
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  8. #11918
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Share price down about 17% since the great restructure - is the market saying they didn’t think the restructuring was such a great idea.

    Seems years ago the share price was as low as this

    Half year report has to be a doozy or else anything could happen
    Do you really think so Winner ? Let’s say it’s just an ordinary report, some growth, dividend maintained. And they acknowledge some kind of negative reaction to the Australian issues and the loss of the mortgage brokers. That’s what I am expecting. But will the price really drop a lot further ?

    Personally I don’t really think so. The PE ( hard to find at the moment) is undemanding. The dividend is good and hopefully they maintain it. I think it’s gone about as low as it will. If I was not already over weighted with them, I would buy a few more. Disc. Hold, Avg 106c

    Hope I am right.

  9. #11919
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    At $1.33 the metrics look almost too compelling that I am concerned and I think the market is pricing in at least a 50/50 chance of a recession in 2020 and /or we've got a leaky ship and insiders are aware of a dramatic increase in bad and doubtful debt provisioning in the announcement next week.
    I would like to buy more but my nose is telling me something funny is up.
    Last edited by Beagle; 14-02-2019 at 04:40 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  10. #11920
    Senior Member King1212's Avatar
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    Well...a lot of angry sellers there.....stop loss trigger...sell..sell.sell

  11. #11921
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    Quote Originally Posted by King1212 View Post
    Well...a lot of angry sellers there.....stop loss trigger...sell..sell.sell
    Don't discount margin call selling!

    Looks like Forbar type style selling from their leveraged finance book!

  12. #11922
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    Do you really think so Winner ? Let’s say it’s just an ordinary report, some growth, dividend maintained. And they acknowledge some kind of negative reaction to the Australian issues and the loss of the mortgage brokers. That’s what I am expecting. But will the price really drop a lot further ?

    Personally I don’t really think so. The PE ( hard to find at the moment) is undemanding. The dividend is good and hopefully they maintain it. I think it’s gone about as low as it will. If I was not already over weighted with them, I would buy a few more. Disc. Hold, Avg 106c

    Hope I am right.
    Here are your PE"s (at SP = $1.33):

    Forward PE (based on average of next 3 years forecasted earnings) is 9.8;
    forward earnings CAGR is 7.4

    backward PE (based on the last 6 years earnings) is 14;
    backwards earnings CAGR is 13.

    So - earnings growth expected to drop, but 7% pa is still no reason to hide under a rock, particularly in combination with a forward PE of under 10.

    Couldn't resist and bought back in ... lets hope KW's famous words won't haunt me.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  13. #11923
    Senior Member King1212's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Don't discount margin call selling!

    Looks like Forbar type style selling from their leveraged finance book!
    nah..I will never sell my HGH...it is a cash cow....good dividend share

  14. #11924
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Here are your PE"s (at SP = $1.33):

    Forward PE (based on average of next 3 years forecasted earnings) is 9.8;
    forward earnings CAGR is 7.4

    backward PE (based on the last 6 years earnings) is 14;
    backwards earnings CAGR is 13.

    So - earnings growth expected to drop, but 7% pa is still no reason to hide under a rock, particularly in combination with a forward PE of under 10.

    Couldn't resist and bought back in ... lets hope KW's famous words won't haunt me.
    Never buy in a downtrend. Those words have been ringing VERY LOUD in my ears today !!!! I agree the metrics look compelling.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  15. #11925
    A BEARISH BULL winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post

    The dividend is good and hopefully they maintain it. I think it’s gone about as low as it will. If I was not already over weighted with them, I would buy a few more. Disc. Hold, Avg 106c.
    Hopefully maintain the divie you say ....hasn’t changed increased for a year or so now so what you reckon would happen if the divie was not maintained ...put to rest that great phrase ever increasing divies eh

    Disc: Hold. Average - Minus $0.35
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

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