The H&S pattern particulary scary ..... looks we heading to $1.40 or lower if it plays out and has a bit of bling added. That should send the shivers up Beagles spine
Beautiful eh
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Just as well I sold right at the head...gives me more wiggle room around the shoulders now I'm back in eh Winner. TA does not look flash but FA does ! Might be a while before you get your $2.50 though
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
I have started to buy. Have close to 1M shares. This is a good co and is in niche markets .,but i take risk and do not often sell,just hold. Lucky the shares are for the kids.
Heartlands much touted NIM (more than double its peers) doesn’t seem to translate into superior ROE. Heartland’s ROE is just average and nothing special.
Using Beagles peer group and tabling their ROE and Price Book ratios gives interesting insights as below.
Appears as if a Heartland share price of $1.66 is neither cheap or expensive.
Price/Book for me a better measure than PE ratios etc ....note higher the ROE the more it’s rewarded with a higher multiple
Numbers from Morningstar so don’t blame me if wrong
Last edited by winner69; 15-09-2018 at 03:39 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
The H&S pattern particulary scary ..... looks we heading to $1.40 or lowerif it plays out and has a bit of bling added. That should send the shivers up Beagles spine
Beautiful eh
Might be tempted to do "A Couta1" if it goes down there. Coutts needs to come up with SUM relativity theory for this one.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is not your friend. Its job is to protect the banks. It would not hesitate to impose a haircut on depositors of a minor deposit taking institution like Heartland to teach people a lesson.
The systemic risk of a major bank imposing a cram down on depositors would make the Reserve Bank hesitate and make politicians eager to fix it.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
PS. Mid Canterbury where Heartland does its major deposit taking business is so staunchly National they could put up a cockies dog as a candidate and it would still get elected. Thus there is no political risk to either of the main parties from cutting Mid Canterbury depositors adrift.
I thought that OBR was for the too-big-to-fail banks but you may be right that it could be used with a smaller bank like HBL. I assumed that because HBL wouldn’t have got a taxpayer bailout and would have been left to fail under the old rules that it wouldn’t fit into the OBR rules. Hopefully we will never know what the intentions are with OBR.
I thought that OBR was for the too-big-to-fail banks but you may be right that it could be used with a smaller bank like HBL. I assumed that because HBL wouldn’t have got a taxpayer bailout and would have been left to fail under the old rules that it wouldn’t fit into the OBR rules. Hopefully we will never know what the intentions are with OBR.
Should one of the big 4 (ASB, ANZ, BNZ, WBC) or Kiwibank get into difficulty, they will be bailed out by the government.
If more than one is in trouble, then it's a moot point. If anyone else is in trouble, the OBR will be down on them like a ton of bricks.
Looking at what happened to the finance companies a decade or so ago, you might say that "size does matter" - did anyone other than SCF get bailed?
Strike price for the shares in lieu of dividend has been announced and for those canny investors participating they enjoy a 2.5% discount to the VWAP ex divvy trading price over recent days ($1.625). Participation is actually a good way to boost one's effective yield. For example I am forecasting 7.95% gross yield as recently posted in the year ahead but for those taking the shares in lieu their gross yield becomes 7.95 / 0.975 = 8.154%.
Just on 5.3m shares are being issued for this dividend and I am modelling 10.6m shares issued for the year or 1.9% increase in the number on issue. Provided they don't do a capital raise the vast majority of this year's profit growth should translate to EPS growth but I agree with Percy that asking whether this years forecast profit growth will be reflected in an ostensibly similar EPS growth is an excellent question for the annual meeting. After only 2% EPS growth last year I will be seeking some comfort the company hasn't lost focus on the importance of EPS growth.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Strike price for the shares in lieu of dividend has been announced and for those canny investors participating they enjoy a 2.5% discount to the VWAP ex divvy trading price over recent days ($1.625). Participation is actually a good way to boost one's effective yield. For example I am forecasting 7.95% gross yield as recently posted in the year ahead but for those taking the shares in lieu their gross yield becomes 7.95 / 0.975 = 8.154%..
Its not very canny if you buy a div yield stock only to see its value plummet. In the past 6 months HBL had a high of $1.85 and is now 1 cent above the 52 week low of $1.65
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Originally Posted by winner69
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