HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Ggcc]

If it goes lower I will be parking some of my A2 profits here. The story hasn’t changed and neither has the imputed dividend.

[beetills]

I see a question on another forum being asked about Greg Tomlinson.Is he the same bloke that has recently had an unreserved dispersal sale of his animals on Gavelhouse.?

[Beagle]

We know the Australian banks are facing quite a potential challenge from RBNZ in terms of their capital ratio, whereas even if RBNZ go to a 15% capital HGH can get there through its DRIP alone over the next 5 years.

If we look at the following three year forward PE comparison which is the average analyst view as presented on Market screener we see that generally speaking and taking the below Australian banks as a representative sample, there is no forecast eps growth for the Australian banks, actually a forecast 1.7% decline (average forward PE FY19 11.7, average forward PE FY21 11.9).

Comparing this with HGH we see the forward PE improving from FY19 of 12.3 to FY21 of 10.7 a 13% earnings improvement forecast over that 2 year period, average 6.5% per year.

Further, by FY21 HGH's PE at 10.7 will be 10% lower (10.7 v 11.9) than the Australian banks despite its quite considerably superior average growth rate.

Interestingly this compares with the FY19 PE being at 12.3 v the sector average of 11.7. I would at least expect that modest PE premium (5%) to be maintained so over the next two years I expect HGH to outperform the average performance of the Australian banks by ~ 15-20%.

The current modest PE premium to the sector average looks a little light to me given the seriousness of the capital adequacy challenge faced by the Australian banks with their operations here. I think HGH is an accumulate for growth and expect the forward yield to be 8.5% gross at the price of $1.55 assuming average forward dividends of 9.5 cps annually over the forecast period.
PE's for FY19, FY20, FY21
NAB 10.8, 10.3, 10.6
WBC 11.9, 11.0, 11.3
ANZ 11.2, 11.0, 11.3
CBA 12.8, 13.2, 13.8
BEN 11.7, 11.8, 12.2
BOQ 11.8, 12.0, 12.4
HGH 12.3, 11.4, 10.7

Full imputation credits are of course only available on HGH.
My rating is now accumulate.

P.S. I see fair value now at $1.62 and my one year price target is $1.73.

[oldtech]

Nice work Beagle!

I topped up yesterday at $1.58, today's price of $1.55 is even more compelling.

[winner69]

Cherise Barrie the new CFO

Wide and diverse range of credentials

No doubt selected on merit and best person for the job

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...044/299203.pdf

[minimoke]

Cherise Barrie the new CFO

Wide and diverse range of credentials

No doubt selected on merit and best person for the job

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...044/299203.pdf

I liked the announcement until i got to"She is a passionate advocate of women in business, being a member of Global Womenand previously a Director and Treasurer for Dress for Success in Auckland." That is not a credential for being a CFO.

[Food4Thought]

I liked the announcement until i got to"She is a passionate advocate of women in business, being a member of Global Womenand previously a Director and Treasurer for Dress for Success in Auckland." That is not a credential for being a CFO.

Will help to lift the profile of HGH? Get them a more professional look? Management has had a good result so far and I see they are doing their bit again to ensure we see long term growth 👌

[minimoke]

Will help to lift the profile of HGH?

I wouldn't think so. Or certainly no more so than any other competent Board member. That she belongs to a "Womens Club" (Global Women) should enable her to hold no opposition if someone wants to join a Mens Club.

As for being treasurer of DFS Auckland thats somewhat akin to being treasurer of the local scouts group so I dont put much value on that.

Would have much preferred to see "Cherise is a Chartered Accountant by profession and is currently the Chief Financial Officer of Aotal Limited.She has also held the role of Chief Financial Officer at Sovereign and Acting Chief Financial Officer and Financial Controller at Westpac. Prior to this she was in senior roles with ANZ National Bank in both Finance and the Financial Markets business. Her professional services experience was gained working with Pricewaterhouse, PricewaterhouseCoopers and KPMG. Cherise is a director on Sovereigns subsidiary company Boards and previously was on the board of a number of Westpac subsidiaries including Westpac Life. Cherise has broad experience engaging at the Board level developed across her career.
From a professional point of view, Cherise focusses on improving the performance of the company and creating high performing engaged teams whereby people develop themselves and their skillsets and in doing so setting themselves up for future positions.
Cherise is passionate about seeing people achieve their career aspirations and invests her spare time in mentoring individuals as well as facilitating a networking forum at Sovereign.

Get them a more professional look?

If by that you mean washing out the old pale male, then yes. Other than that we should have confidence that at board level they already are professional. And if not the un-professional ones should be moved on.

[davflaws]

I liked the announcement until i got to"She is a passionate advocate of women in business, being a member of Global Womenand previously a Director and Treasurer for Dress for Success in Auckland." That is not a credential for being a CFO.

Maybe -depending on how well rounded you like your management team - but it is an excellent credential for being a decent human being.

[winner69]

Maybe -depending on how well rounded you like your management team - but it is an excellent credential for being a decent human being.

And increases the diversity of thinking within the management team. That is good.

And women are often said to be better at managing money than men ...good attribute for a CFO