I agree also. I for one appreciate the effort that Snoops puts in his posts and his willingness to share his analysis. I fear that a pack mentality is developing here. Share trader would be the worse off without his input.
LOL 20% either way of 'fair value' is giving yourself a lot of leeway Snoopy.
It might be helpful if some people put the same amount of energy they do into their 'enthusiasm' into understanding what the statistical term 'average' means. The basic idea is that you take a set of values that are 'all over the place' and come up with a number somewhere in the middle. A business cycle average is not a prediction of where the share price is headed in the short term. A business cycle average is not even a predictive hint about what you might do in every particular situation.
I don't think it is anything profound to say that if a share price is going up then the chances are that, in the short term, it will continue to go up. I think it is equally unprofound to suggest that eventually the upward trend will come to an end. If you believe in the concept of a business cycle, (and for Heartland at least I accept there are those that don't and think that these people believe Heartland share price will continue to go up indefinitely), then how can you, as an investor, best use the concept of 'average fair valuation'? I would suggest that 'on average' shareholders should be looking to reduce their HBL position with the share price sits above 'business cycle fair value' and increase their position when the share price sits below 'business cycle fair value'. Notwithstanding the suggestion that when it comes to share price valuations caused as a result of the recent capital raising it might pay, in the short term at least, to do the opposite.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 16-03-2017 at 10:01 AM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
So lets lot at how 20% each way becomes 50%.
$1,00 share.Snoopy valuation plus or minus 20%.Plus 20% = $1.20.Minus 20% = 80cents.
I note $1.20 is 50% higher than 80 cents.
Your maths looks spot on to me Percy. Now what point are you trying to make?
SNOOPY
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
Snoopy I think the market overall is fully valued. Yes you could make the case that the current FY17 PE is a little higher than average but FY18's forecast PE of 12.5 is about right in my view for this stock.
Maybe people are simply happy to wait for a year for earnings growth to return the PE to its average range for this share and in the meantime enjoy a 7.5% gross dividend yield.
If all the stock did was flat line for a year and people enjoyed the pretty decent dividend yield I can't seer any harm in that strategy and probably as good as any other in a fully priced market.
Yes people will probably only get average returns holding but no harm in that mate.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Can I translate this into words that everyone can understand?
The party is over.
Heartland: Sell, sell, sell!
SNOOPY
Post # 8439...11-01-2017
Share price closed at $1.51 on that day.
Today the share price is $1.61 after a very successful SPP.
Sorry but I find it hard to respect posters whose research is poor,missing the point,misguided,often full of mistakes, and ends up being just wrong.
Is HBL over valued / undervalued / about right - I have no idea
What I do know is that currently HBL has never been so highly rated by the market as it is at the moment.
Chart is shareprice compared to Book Value. Currently Price/Book multiple is about 1.55. The Price/Book multiple is one of the preferred valuation methids used by analysts (Craigs for one seem to like it). The more bue showing the more highly rated HBL is
Last edited by winner69; 16-03-2017 at 01:54 PM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
At $1.62 I'm starting to feel Heartland is fully valued. Top end of NPAT for FY17 is $60m which is a PE of 13.8. Some earnings growth in FY18, say 6%, gets that PE back to 13.0. I'm not saying things will turn sour but they have enjoyed several fairly benign years economically and theyve been managed well but the current price has no margin for an economic slowdown if it were to occur i.e. risk adjusted across the cycle its starting to feel a bit overdone.
I'm not selling but I am watching more closely as Heartland is no longer cheap like it was a couple of years ago....
Is HBL over valued / undervalued / about right - I have no idea
What I do know that currently HBL has never been so highly rated by the market as it is at the moment.
Chart is shareprice compared to Book Value. Currently Price/Book is about 1.55. The Price/Book multiple is one of the preferred valuation methids used by analysts (Craigs for one seem to like it). The more bue showing the more highly rated HBL is
HBL valuation.
Current share price [$1.62] would be at the very top of my current valuation.
The PE is high at 14.19,yet the yield is also high at 5.25% .
I have been trying to understand the current strength of HBL's share price.
I think the market is now comfortable that HBL has runs on the board.
They are a success story,and this has seen the PE expand.
They have [well] positioned themselves in the online digital delivery of product.This sector will enjoy huge growth.Far outgrowing banks with bricks and mortar, costly to run, branches.
Should interest rates rise all banks do better.
I also think the market appreciates the added security that HBL have, by reporting quarterly to the Reserve Bank of NZ.
The speed they have used their excess capital,and have had to raise more, tells me they are enjoying a very high substainable growth rate.
I note on the charts HBL have set an all time high.This is positive.I am not sure whether the support level on the chart is $1.60 or $1.55.
Although I am overweighted with HBL I will only be selling a few, should I want some cash for another share.I have discontinued DRP.
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