HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[ziggy415]

While the chart is a bit scary at the moment, I intend to hold. In terms of 10+ years investment timeline for me nothing announced has indicated that this short term weakness won't pass. As someone 100% subscribed to DRP the scenario just gets better.

#me too.......udc finance possible cash raising is adding to the uncertainty....still a good share

[percy]

Craigs research this morning on projected yields, has HBL's gross dividend yield increasing from 7.1% [2018] to 7.9% [2019] an increase of 11.26%.
Great yields for those who spotted the durable competitive strengths of HBL,and brought at sensible purchase prices.

[Beagle]

If they can make $68m which looks like a tall order given their first half result that's just 12.2 cps on 557m shares, (I don't "buy" all this creative weighted average shares on issue nonsense). I no longer see a valid reason they should trade on a multiple in excess of their peer group, EPS growth is no better than the big banks many of which have a 150+ year history and vastly better credit rating, so I reckon a PE of 13 is fair so I get $1.59 as my target price.

Posted recently. Even removing my own confirmation bias regarding methodology of measuring EPS when significant new shares are issued during the year. I note the following 2018 PE's straight off 4 Traders based on Friday's closing price.
NAB 13.35
ANZ 12.16
WBC 12.68
CBA 13.57
BEN 12.13
BOQ 12.72
Average of Australian peer group 12.77
HBL even with the recent SP decline 15.21.
Share price to bring the PE into line with peer group 12.77 / 15.21 x 1.81 = $1.52.
Note: many of HBL's peer group have track records going back more than 150 years and vastly better credit ratings.
2 Years ago HBL traded at about a 2 PE discount to its peer group.
Back-testing of support in the 150-160 range coming in the medium term ? You be the judge.

[Filthy]

didn’t poor ‘old Snoopy bring forward a very compelling PE debate awhile back and end up getting slated by a lot of people on ST for his comparison of HBL to the big ozzy banks?

I really enjoyed all of the contributions at the time, but seem to recall that the outcome (general consensus) was that a slight PE premium for a growing kiwi bank vs the ‘large, mature & clunky' ozzy banks was deemed acceptable?

charts indicate support at around 175. should be fine.

[Balance]

CBL debacle will be having a flow on negative effect on HBL - overseas investors would be wondering whether RBNZ has what it takes to supervise the financial sector.

The big trading banks are effectively supervised by RBA so don't look at the trading banks as guidance of how overseas investors view RBNZ.

https://www.insurancetimes.co.uk/cap...426534.article

"CBLI had significantly under-reserved its French business to such an extend its adjusted capital for solvency purposes (ie excluding inadmissible components) was most likely to be less than zero’, according to the court documents."

[BlackPeter]

CBL debacle will be having a flow on negative effect on HBL - overseas investors would be wondering whether RBNZ has what it takes to supervise the financial sector.

Trading banks are effectively supervised by RBA.

CBL debacle has the potential to have a flow on effect not just on HBL but on all of our (NZX traded) stocks. Overseas market will wonder whether governance in New Zealand is only on a voluntary basis for members of the rich and famous boys club. Not a good place to invest money ....

Just hoping that our market authorities wake up, find their dentures and sort out this mess (including demotivating the next bunch of incompetent yes man to repeat this debacle) - and hoping that whatever they do will be enough and in good time for the fickle international markets to be satisfied. Sitting the issues out and slapping afterwards some of the culprits with wet bus tickets won't do this time.

[winner69]

CBL debacle will be having a flow on negative effect on HBL - overseas investors would be wondering whether RBNZ has what it takes to supervise the financial sector.

The big trading banks are effectively supervised by RBA so don't look at the trading banks as guidance of how overseas investors view RBNZ.

https://www.insurancetimes.co.uk/cap...426534.article

"CBLI had significantly under-reserved its French business to such an extend its adjusted capital for solvency purposes (ie excluding inadmissible components) was most likely to be less than zero’, according to the court documents."

Makes you wonder what really was going on eh Balance ....and how RBNZ seemed to struggle in getting to the bottom of it. That reinsurance bit just seems one big fiddle.

No worries for Heartland ....they have high capital ratios I’m told.

[percy]

Makes you wonder what really was going on eh Balance ....and how RBNZ seemed to struggle in getting to the bottom of it. That reinsurance bit just seems one big fiddle.

No worries for Heartland ....they have high capital ratios I’m told.

You have been told correctly.
Your mate at The Co-Op.?

[percy]

CBL debacle has the potential to have a flow on effect not just on HBL but on all of our (NZX traded) stocks. Overseas market will wonder whether governance in New Zealand is only on a voluntary basis for members of the rich and famous boys club. Not a good place to invest money ....

Just hoping that our market authorities wake up, find their dentures and sort out this mess (including demotivating the next bunch of incompetent yes man to repeat this debacle) - and hoping that whatever they do will be enough and in good time for the fickle international markets to be satisfied. Sitting the issues out and slapping afterwards some of the culprits with wet bus tickets won't do this time.

CBL debacle will only put our market on a par with Aussie,after the fun and games they are having with BIG and GSW.

[Balance]

CBL debacle will only put our market on a par with Aussie,after the fun and games they are having with BIG and GSW.

Maybe true but ASX is a market too big and too important to ignore.

NZX is a pipsqueak market with a board and management who reminds one of headless chooks at the best of times - a market which can be ignored.