HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[percy]

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Broadly agree Percy, however I would urge people to not be fixated on 65 as the retirement age. With a bit of planning, if one wants to, one can retire a bit earlier, there are quite a few benefits to doing so especially as our later years can be a bit unsure health wise. Personally I retired 6 years ago and have never regretted it.

Yes, great discussion, In general I am a buy and hold investor looking for security of my capital and living off the dividends. Not really worried by current Heartland price which is much less than our average buy.

Yes I too think 65 is a moving target.
The main point of investing is being able to retire "comfortably", at whatever age you decide to retire,whether that is 45 or 85.
In my case I just kept putting off retiring because I loved my job.

[Beagle]

Yes a good discussion and comparison of various points of view and an especially good post by Baa Baa, very well said.
Just want to add a couple of things.
High time we had a full comparison of PE's with the other six Australasian banks and a look at their respective EPS growth rates forecast for the next two years, (I'll try and get on to this later this week if I get time as this will be useful when considering that PE UDC might be floated on.)

Keep in mind that when we get another listing in a sector, (such as the rumored forthcoming UDC float) you often get institutions reallocating capital from the incumbent sector investments. For example we saw all the retirement stocks come under serious pressure this time last year when OCA was floated and they remained under pressure for months afterwards. In effect a new float sucks the wind out of the sails of the incumbent sector players. OCA by no means the only time this has happened, happens more often than not in my opinion.

[BlackPeter]

Yes a good discussion and comparison of various points of view and an especially good post by Baa Baa, very well said.
Just want to add a couple of things.
High time we had a full comparison of PE's with the other six Australasian banks and a look at their respective EPS growth rates forecast for the next two years, (I'll try and get on to this later this week if I get time as this will be useful when considering that PE UDC might be floated on.)

Keep in mind that when we get another listing in a sector, (such as the rumored forthcoming UDC float) you often get institutions reallocating capital from the incumbent sector investments. For example we saw all the retirement stocks come under serious pressure this time last year when OCA was floated and they remained under pressure for months afterwards. In effect a new float sucks the wind out of the sails of the incumbent sector players. OCA by no means the only time this has happened, happens more often than not in my opinion.

Good point. Buying opportunities on the horizon ; Obviously, though - we should not forget to look at the bigger picture.

Banking shares currently under pressure all around the globe - and not sure they found their bottom already. Most of the German banks I follow dropped more than 20% in the last 3 months. Australian banks finding new lows (well, looking at the last handful of years). Markets are nervous with high property prices, unsustainable debt burdens for most developed countries and an idiot president in the East Island adding uncertainty into international trade relations doesn't help either.

While HBL carved out for itself a somewhat cosy niche market, I don't think they can completely decouple from the global trends. If we run into the next big downturn / debt crisis, than they certainly will be effected as well.

Expect markets to stay volatile and nervous ... maybe a good time to go fishing and watch from the sidelines;

[Beagle]

Agree 100% with your sentiments on this sector from a global perspective. Not just European and Australasian banks that have been weak.

[Onion]

I have traditionally been a proponent of buy and hold, but I do remember discussions on the forum around the wisdom of buy and hold versus trading - ie buy shares when low, sell when high and they start going down, buy back in when the price is low again.

As an example, say you'd been a clever beagle and sold at $2.14, you could now buy back in at $1.73 or so and either buy more or take the profit. I'm not necessarily advocating you or anybody does this, simply putting it out there as one possibility.

I also keep remembering this KISS principle from KW on when to sell:

"If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average), this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established."


Disc: Still holding ... at the moment ...

All very well for clever beagles that can identify that the "top" has been reached and that the SP will not continue climbing.

I've certainly lost out when I have thought I was a clever "top" spotter only for the SP to continue rising. EBO would be an example - I sold at what I thought was a nice profit and have regretted it ever since as the SP has doggedly remained above my sell price.

[oldtech]

All very well for clever beagles that can identify that the "top" has been reached and that the SP will not continue climbing.

I've certainly lost out when I have thought I was a clever "top" spotter only for the SP to continue rising. EBO would be an example - I sold at what I thought was a nice profit and have regretted it ever since as the SP has doggedly remained above my sell price.

Oh hey ... join the club! Tried to be clever with SUM a while back, failed miserably.

[BlackPeter]

All very well for clever beagles that can identify that the "top" has been reached and that the SP will not continue climbing.

I've certainly lost out when I have thought I was a clever "top" spotter only for the SP to continue rising. EBO would be an example - I sold at what I thought was a nice profit and have regretted it ever since as the SP has doggedly remained above my sell price.

Agree - Beagle was spot on in picking this peak and kudos to him for freely communicating this view. Not easy to spot peaks without the benefit of hindsight .

However - for the mere mortals under us, there was still the MA50 (slightly above $2) and the MA100 (slightly below $2), which I used to dispose of my HBL shares ... and so far not too unhappy about this decision ;

[dabsman]

I have so far timed nothing right but I keep tipping money in every month and I know at least 50% of these will be profitable in the next year and 90% will be in 5 years so I really dont care about peaks and troughs - I'm the Neil Wagner of investing - take the hits and keep going as in the end I'll win big!

[percy]

Good point. Buying opportunities on the horizon ; Obviously, though - we should not forget to look at the bigger picture.

Banking shares currently under pressure all around the globe - and not sure they found their bottom already. Most of the German banks I follow dropped more than 20% in the last 3 months. Australian banks finding new lows (well, looking at the last handful of years). Markets are nervous with high property prices, unsustainable debt burdens for most developed countries and an idiot president in the East Island adding uncertainty into international trade relations doesn't help either.

While HBL carved out for itself a somewhat cosy niche market, I don't think they can completely decouple from the global trends. If we run into the next big downturn / debt crisis, than they certainly will be effected as well.

Expect markets to stay volatile and nervous ... maybe a good time to go fishing and watch from the sidelines;

German Banks.Unlike German Banks HBL has no Sovereign exposure to countries such as Greece,Spain,Italy or Portugal.In fact no sovereign exposure at all.
Australian Banks.Unlike Australian Banks ,The Australian Royal Commission will have little or no effect on HBL.

[RTM]

All very well for clever beagles that can identify that the "top" has been reached and that the SP will not continue climbing.

I've certainly lost out when I have thought I was a clever "top" spotter only for the SP to continue rising. EBO would be an example - I sold at what I thought was a nice profit and have regretted it ever since as the SP has doggedly remained above my sell price.

Yep....exactly. I sold out of Ebos for a nice profit as well. And then bought back at a cent more. On the other side of things I did manage to exit FBU for a small profit. Different scenario.