German Banks.Unlike German Banks HBL has no Sovereign exposure to countries such as Greece,Spain,Italy or Portugal.In fact no sovereign exposure at all.
Australian Banks.Unlike Australian Banks ,The Australian Royal Commission will have little or no effect on HBL.
Sure - they are a (much) smaller bank with (much) smaller risks. Not sure however, whether these risks are smaller compared to their size. As well - despite having no direct exposure to some of the bigger elephants in the room, they are not out of this world - and a real estate crash or significant increased unemployment coupled perhaps with higher interest rates would impact on the quality of their credit book as well.
Happy to acknowledge that they are a well run business which so far served its long term shareholders very well. Does not mean, though that there are no risks around.
BTW - I remember a well respected poster on share trader to remind us some years ago frequently that it might not be a good idea to hold shares priced well below the MA50 and the MA200 (and I am not referring to KW ). Wondering what happened to him? ;
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Sure - they are a (much) smaller bank with (much) smaller risks. Not sure however, whether these risks are smaller compared to their size. As well - despite having no direct exposure to some of the bigger elephants in the room, they are not out of this world - and a real estate crash or significant increased unemployment coupled perhaps with higher interest rates would impact on the quality of their credit book as well.
Happy to acknowledge that they are a well run business which so far served its long term shareholders very well. Does not mean, though that there are no risks around.
BTW - I remember a well respected poster on share trader to remind us some years ago frequently that it might not be a good idea to hold shares priced well below the MA50 and the MA200 (and I am not referring to KW ). Wondering what happened to him? ;
The outlook for HBL's major market NZ, looks excellent.Low unemployment,and low interest rates for the foreseeable future.
In Australia HBL's RELs are very secure form of lending and are tracking well. HBL are taking a measured approach with their Australian "open for business" products [currently run from Auckland].There appears to be a good opportunities for HBL to tap into the Australian small business lending sector.
Does anybody know why the MA50 and MA200 the preferred MA duration. Perhaps a MA100 and MA 400 or MA25 and MA100 could also work. Has there been any research done on the effectiveness of these Moving Averages? Clearly the death cross will occur on a chart that has been trending down for sometime or has rapidly fallen but by then the chart is clearly in a down trend anyway. I think it really comes down to trying to understand why the particular share has dropped in value. The trick is to be able to take a contrary view to the market and get it right.
I haven’t seen many (if any) accurate TA predictions in the threads that I read on ST. The FA predictions are often right. Don’t want to unduly upset any TAers but I probably have.
Agreed, top end of fair value though. 1.8 times price to book was a huge sell signal as was the forward PE of 17 which is unheard of for Australasian banks...although some on here from vague memory were calling for $2.50 in pretty short order after that, can't quite remember who...leave it to others to check back on the thread last December
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Agreed, top end of fair value though. 1.8 times price to book was a huge sell signal as was the forward PE of 17 which is unheard of for Australasian banks...although some on here from vague memory were calling for $2.50 in pretty short order after that, can't quite remember who...leave it to others to check back on the thread last December
Probably me touting $2.50 ....but Jeff has disappointed by not coming out with an higher guidance figure
Sticking with $65m to $68m since like $70m to $72m but Jeff likes playing games eh
Never mind
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Thank you everyone who posted their kind thoughts and reputation comments re my post last night, I'm a bit overwhelmed by the warm response. When it's from the heart and hard learned experience it seems to resonate more strongly, albeit unexpectedly, perhaps we can reflect on that. Bless you all.
🙏🏻
BAA
Originally Posted by percy
). Wondering what happened to him?
;
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