HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

Beagle: A team that simply threw more money at dairy farmers and hoped the dairy crisis would end. They got lucky, simple as that.

:

That’s good risk management

Previous guy was useless (and lucky) and the new guy ...well, hope he’s a lucky one as well.

[Beagle]

That’s good risk management

Previous guy was useless (and lucky) and the new guy ...well, hope he’s a lucky one as well.

Hope is a valid business strategy, right ?

[minimoke]

Whats happening at HBL. Hit a low of $1.68 4 weeks ago. Today trading at $1.81 with no news.

[percy]

Whats happening at HBL. Hit a low of $1.68 4 weeks ago. Today trading at $1.81 with no news.

Top end of town has been holding the price back,so you can add to your holding.

NB.They can not hold it back for you much longer............................................ .......................lol.

[BlackPeter]

Top end of town has been holding the price back,so you can add to your holding.

NB.They can not hold it back for you much longer............................................ .......................lol.

Why would they want to do that (hold the price back)?

Looking at the SP - while it is true it is currently going upwards .... SP still below all relevant MA's (50, 100, 200) - and the volume is not really overwhelming either.

Unless you know something we don't, this could well be just a wee up-ripple in a confirmed downtrend prepared to bounce at one of above MA's - couldn't it?

[percy]

Why would they want to do that (hold the price back)?

Looking at the SP - while it is true it is currently going upwards .... SP still below all relevant MA's (50, 100, 200) - and the volume is not really overwhelming either.

Unless you know something we don't, this could well be just a wee up-ripple in a confirmed downtrend prepared to bounce at one of above MA's - couldn't it?

You missed the ...lol.
50 day ma etc.? Who knows.?..Try the 400 day EMA.?.If that does not work try the 600 day EMA.!!You will find one that works.!
Maybe the share price is reacting to Australian fund manager Peter Cooper's positive comments on Livewire.?
Maybe the market is seeing past the first half, and looking forward to the organic growth continuing, not only in the second half,but continuing in the foreseeable future?
Maybe Craig's clients are following Craig's recent buy recommendation?

[Food4Thought]

HBL. Great kiwi stock to own. Long term great potential on a solid company. Don't say you wish you did in 5 years time.

[BlackPeter]

HBL. Great kiwi stock to own. Long term great potential on a solid company. Don't say you wish you did in 5 years time.

Will HBL be in 5 years more worth than it is now? Nobody knows, but you well might be right. Agree as well that it is a well run company, though from what I hear the overall customer experience is not flawless ... ever tried their mobile internet banking?

However - all this does not mean that it is a good idea to hold them now. SP is in a clear and sustained downtrend (below MA50 and MA200), and passed the cross of death (MA50 below MA 200); Analysts aren't that enthusiastic either: Consensus (12-month) price target is $1.81 and recommendation is "underperform".

And yes - analysts are not always right, but they are not always wrong either. I think KW's recommendation re not buying into a downtrend would be applicable here.

Banking stocks internationally on the downtrend - and even if we assume that HBL will keep continue growing as they did in the past - if the market feels that the industry deserves a lower PE, than HBL will be effected as well. No tragedy, just means that it might be possible to buy in some months (or whenever) a good stock at a still better price ;

No point fighting the market.

Obviously - for people holding the question is - are we close enough to (or have we passed already) the bottom? This is a more difficult question to answer and I will not even try. However - I am glad I sold out around $2 ... and looking forward to buy them again when it looks like their uptrend continues.

[percy]

Selling buying back,is Ok for a person who pays tax on their trading,or has moved back to NZ from Aussie, and has organised their tax position,so as they do not have to pay tax for a couple of years.
For a long term investor,who pays tax on their dividends,but not on their capital gain,as they have held for a long time,regular buying/selling leaves them wide open as being a trader.
Not worth the risk with a large portfolio,which is being driven by companies such as HBL, who have the capacity,and who are paying increasing dividends.
Maybe we need another site ie s...... investor rather than s..... trader,as what suits a trader ,does not suit an investor..

[Beagle]

Will HBL be in 5 years more worth than it is now? Nobody knows, but you well might be right. Agree as well that it is a well run company, though from what I hear the overall customer experience is not flawless ... ever tried their mobile internet banking?

However - all this does not mean that it is a good idea to hold them now. SP is in a clear and sustained downtrend (below MA50 and MA200), and passed the cross of death (MA50 below MA 200); Analysts aren't that enthusiastic either: Consensus (12-month) price target is $1.81 and recommendation is "underperform".

And yes - analysts are not always right, but they are not always wrong either. I think KW's recommendation re not buying into a downtrend would be applicable here.

Banking stocks internationally on the downtrend - and even if we assume that HBL will keep continue growing as they did in the past - if the market feels that the industry deserves a lower PE, than HBL will be effected as well. No tragedy, just means that it might be possible to buy in some months (or whenever) a good stock at a still better price ;

No point fighting the market.

Obviously - for people holding the question is - are we close enough to (or have we passed already) the bottom? This is a more difficult question to answer and I will not even try. However - I am glad I sold out around $2 ... and looking forward to buy them again when it looks like their uptrend continues.

Good post BP. Just want to add that their EPS growth rate is slowing too so that doesn't help and neither does a possible listing of UDC which could see over half a billion of capital raised sucking the wind out of this sector. I still think this is a good quarter to sit on the sidelines but like all things related to predicting the future, only time will tell Agree especially with the highlighted point you made.