-
18-05-2018, 08:39 AM
#10721
Keeping back the good news / profit upgrade until later in the year
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...143/279390.pdf
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
-
18-05-2018, 08:47 AM
#10722
Originally Posted by winner69
Yes saving the $70m+ for a few weeks out from full year result.
No worries as the share price has fallen soo much that Mr Market is no longer really expecting $70m+ anyway
-
18-05-2018, 09:09 AM
#10723
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
Yes saving the $70m+ for a few weeks out from full year result.
No worries as the share price has fallen soo much that Mr Market is no longer really expecting $70m+ anyway
tj ... I think that $70m+ is now a pipe dream. I need to temper my enthusiasm eh
Getting to $68m means Q4 growth needs to be 20% (YTD is only 8%)
Me becoming bearish could be good for share price though ....look out for $2 again soon.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
-
18-05-2018, 09:11 AM
#10724
Did the words say much ...was Jeff full of enthusiasm ...or was it all a bit boring and mundane?
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
-
18-05-2018, 09:20 AM
#10725
Originally Posted by winner69
Did the words say much ...was Jeff full of enthusiasm ...or was it all a bit boring and mundane?
Boring and mundane. As it should be. HSF growth pretty impressive though eh. Interesting comments about the reverse mortgage type scheme announced by the Aussie Government in their budget. One has to wonder whether this will be a competition for HSF or draw more people's attention to this option to supplement retirement funds, which could be beneficial to HSF !?
-
18-05-2018, 09:29 AM
#10726
Originally Posted by iceman
Boring and mundane. As it should be. HSF growth pretty impressive though eh. Interesting comments about the reverse mortgage type scheme announced by the Aussie Government in their budget. One has to wonder whether this will be a competition for HSF or draw more people's attention to this option to supplement retirement funds, which could be beneficial to HSF !?
The negative is Australian retirees will be able to get a weekly/fortnightly supplement from their government,at better terms than Heartland can offer.
The positive is it will make people more aware of using reverse equity loans.
The real big positive is that the Australian government will not offer lump sum loans.These lump sum loans are being used to do up houses for sale,home improvements,travel ,new cars etc.
Therefore the positives will far out weigh the negatives.
-
18-05-2018, 10:33 AM
#10727
Originally Posted by winner69
tj ... I think that $70m+ is now a pipe dream. I need to temper my enthusiasm eh
Getting to $68m means Q4 growth needs to be 20% (YTD is only 8%)
Me becoming bearish could be good for share price though ....look out for $2 again soon.
At 1.7 times book and trading on a forward PE of 14 I think HBL is still fully priced. I see no reason whatsoever for it to go back to $2 anytime soon.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
-
24-05-2018, 04:18 PM
#10728
Dividend Capitalised Valuation: The Data: FY2017 perspective
Originally Posted by Snoopy
Note that the financial year starts on 1st July of the previous calendar year and ends on 30th June.
Year |
Dividends Paid 'per share' |
Significant Event During Year' |
FY2013 |
1.5cps(sp) + 2.0cps |
17th December 2012: Heartland becomes a bank |
FY2014 |
2.5cps + 2.5cps |
1st April 2014: Seniors 'Reverse Mortgage' Business Acquired |
FY2015 |
3.5cps + 3.0cps |
10th September 2014: invests in Harmony P2P startup |
|
|
28th October 2014: Credit rating upgraded from BBB- to BBB (Fitch Ratings) |
FY2016 |
4.5cps + 3.5cps |
FY2017([) |
5.0cps + 3.5cps(f) |
Average FY2015 to FY2017 inclusive |
7.66cps |
|
(f) indicates forecast result.
I have chosen to use the last three years of operation as indicative, as these years include the full contribution of the Reverse Mortgage Portfolio, a critical component of Heartland going forwards.
Year |
Dividends Paid 'per share' |
Significant Event During Year' |
FY2013 |
1.5cps(sp) + 2.0cps |
17th December 2012: Heartland becomes a bank |
FY2014 |
2.5cps + 2.5cps |
1st April 2014: Seniors 'Reverse Mortgage' Business Acquired |
FY2015 |
3.5cps + 3.0cps |
10th September 2014: invests in Harmony P2P startup |
|
|
28th October 2014: Credit rating upgraded from BBB- to BBB (Fitch Ratings) |
FY2016 |
4.5cps + 3.5cps |
FY2017 |
5.0cps + 3.5cps |
FY2018 |
5.5cps + 3.5cps |
Average FY2015 to FY2018 inclusive |
8.00cps |
|
I have chosen to use the last four years of operation as indicative, as these years include the full contribution of the Reverse Mortgage Portfolio, a critical component of Heartland going forwards.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 24-05-2018 at 04:24 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
-
24-05-2018, 04:26 PM
#10729
Dividend Capitalised Valuation: The Calculation: FY2017 perspective
Originally Posted by Snoopy
Plugging in a representative yield, one that represents the ups and downs of the banking cycle of Heartland in its current form, we can now arrive at our 'Capitalised Dividend Model' valuation
(Representative Dividend per Share) / (Acceptable Yield) = Share Price (an algebraic manipulation of: Dividend per Share / Share Price = Yield )
7.66c / 0.72 x 0.075 = $1.42
A reminder here that NTA was:
91cps
at balance date. This means my fair valuation is at a good premium to asset value, a credit to management from the rag tag of assets that they started with.
This $1.42 valuation is measured at the average point in the business cycle. One might argue that we are now riding high in the business cycle and that this $1.42 valuation is consequently too low given today's circumstances. I wouldn't argue with that. But, ever the bargain hound, neither would I look at buying any shares myself until that share price drifts down to that $1.42 level. Don't say that Snoopy didn't warn you!
Plugging in a representative yield, one that represents the ups and downs of the banking cycle of Heartland in its current form, we can now arrive at our 'Capitalised Dividend Model' valuation
(Representative Dividend per Share) / (Acceptable Gross Yield) = Share Price (an algebraic manipulation of: Dividend per Share / Share Price = Yield )
8.0c / 0.72 x 0.075 = $1.48
A reminder here that NTA was
($569.595m - $71.237m) / 516.684m = 96 cps
at balance date. This means my fair valuation is at a good premium to asset value, a credit to management from the rag tag of assets that they started with.
This $1.48 valuation is measured at the average point in the business cycle. One might argue that we are now riding high in the business cycle and that this $1.48 valuation is consequently too low given today's circumstances. I wouldn't argue with that. But, ever the bargain hound, neither would I look at buying any shares myself until that share price drifts down to that $1.48 level.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 24-05-2018 at 04:41 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
-
24-05-2018, 04:38 PM
#10730
Snoops .....I don’t think we will ever see a share price of $1.48 in the foreseeable future
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
Tags for this Thread
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
|
|
Bookmarks