HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

**mouse** · 12-03-2013, 09:15 PM

None so queer as folk! But things are looking up.

Originally Posted by percy

No silly sharehoders in Ashburton,maybe a few dilly Tinwaldians [south of the river] selling.
Expect there are more buyers than sellers,so SP goes up.
I would also think the idea of 2cents divie every six months appeals to a lot of people.
Others would enjoy buying 90cents of NTA for 76cents.ie 15.5% discount,as Sparky The Clown pointed out..
Maybe Balance is right yet again?

**bonne vie** · 12-03-2013, 09:20 PM

Hi This is my first post but am I missing something - wasn't the license granted 17/12/12

**Snoopy** · 12-03-2013, 10:20 PM

Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

Correct. The above post was in reference to one poster who steadfastly maintained it wouldn't be granted for three years and Heartland was on a path of trouble.

Just to clarify -on behalf of that rogue poster-, for those who came in late: the reserve bank's own rules required three years of prior accounts before an entity is granted a banking licence. My deduction from that was that Heartland in its current form would have to wait three years before a banking licence from the point in time it took over PGW finance. I don't know why the reserve bank did not follow their own rules, and decided to grant a banking licence a little more than a year from the PGW finance takeover. My critics have never offered an explanation as to why either. Mind you since the banking licence has been granted, I would argue the whole issue is now moot anyway. I still stand by my original prediction of not receiving a banking licence for three years given the information I had available to me at the time of making the prediction.

Also I mentioned that I believed Heartland was risky, and I still believe that. That is not the same thing as saying Heratland is on the way to inevitable trouble.

SNOOPY

**Balance** · 12-03-2013, 10:36 PM

Snoopy - you sure sniff some strange stuff at times?

**mouse** · 13-03-2013, 10:04 AM

I am trying to average DOWN!

Originally Posted by belgarion

I'd guess the suggestion of an ongoing and reliable dividend stream has caused many on the widely spread share register to rethink and the supply of small sellers has dried up. And, of course, there are those (perenial optimists) that are happy to average UP.

**Cool Bear** · 13-03-2013, 01:03 PM

finally! over the 75/76 barrier. Now 77. Mouse will be able to breakeven soon. Hopefully be 80s by end of this week or next week. Unfortunately not able to buy more as it is already a big chunk of my small portfolio.

**blobbles** · 13-03-2013, 02:15 PM

Likely they will be given a 4c dividend for this year based on their earnings, I would estimate (2c now, 2c in Dec). That's basically the same as having money in the bank and earning interest, or actually a little better because its fully imputed and a slightly better than most rates the banks offer.

As such, my estimation of the real price value now for these guys sits at 95c-$1. If they get growth, which is looking likely, there is considerable upside to that value in the medium term. With a 90c NTA, I see no reason why the Heartlands price is below this value at least. However I know why - people still a bit scared to invest in a finance company, especially one with a chequered past that still has a BBB- rating.

Although interestingly Heartlands TDs are at 4.25% for 6 months or 4.45% for a year! This is higher than their dividend (though less after tax).... I wonder if this is telling? Is it better to have money in the bank or own the bank?

CJ · 13-03-2013, 02:22 PM

Originally Posted by blobbles

Although interestingly Heartlands TDs are at 4.25% for 6 months or 4.45% for a year! This is higher than their dividend (though less after tax).... I wonder if this is telling? Is it better to have money in the bank or own the bank?

I think you are forgetting the Heartland hasn't hit $1 yet.

4c/77c = 5.2% net yeild (7.2% gross)

Much higher than the interest rate being offered. Plus 17% growth to get to NTA. For shareholders on capital account, that will be the equivalent to a 32% interest rate if the share price gets to 90c by the end of 12 months (capital growth of 17% grossed up and div of 7%).