HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Beagle]

It has underperformed the NZX50 index by about 10% over the last year. Lot of value in the company at the current price and the gross yield is 8.5% - 9.0% depending upon one's assumptions of either 10 cps in annual fully imputed dividends or 10.5 cps. Interesting for medium term holders to note that the average analyst view is for 11 cps in fully imputed dividends in FY21 which put them on a gross prospective forward yield of 11 / 0.72 = 15.28 / 162 = 9.4%.

We might find out how safe and sustainable the utility yields are if Rio pulls the pin. Nothing is risk free and I believe Rio's announcement this week effectively blindsided the market and the gentailiers are in the process of being repriced after enjoying an exceptional run. My view is people have been busy preparing for a pending recession for most of 2019 and many REIT's and utility companies are priced like one is highly likely in 2020.

What if it doesn't happen, the US and China agree to some form of trade deal and its risk on and growth again ? Perhaps an overlooked and cheap stock like HGH enjoys a very good run in 2020 ? $1.90 - $2.00 a year from now not out of the question and would represent a PE of about 13.5 - 14.0 times FY21's forecast eps which is the middle of the PE range over the last 5 years or so.

[winner69]

Once HGH breaks through 170 it’ll be over 200 before we realise what’s happened

Then the smart ones can think about selling again

[Beagle]

Did get overcooked on a forward PE of about 17.5 a few years back at the peak when it was $2.14.
17.5 times FY21's prospective earnings would see it at $2.45. Don't think its going that high anytime soon.
I don't think $2.00 is going to be overcooked this time round.

[winner69]

A 10.5 cent divie on earnings of 12.8 seems OK

At 2 bucks that’s still a awesome 7.3% gross yield ....better owning the bank than putting money in the bank eh, esp when interest rates are at 100 year lows

[Beagle]

My sense is after a poor 2019, 2020 could be a "jack-a-box" 30-50% total shareholder return year for HGH.
Don't think anyone would have picked MEL to be up over 60% in the last year inclusive of dividends, (about 80% TSR if you take a reference point from a week ago before Rio went feral). Its been a wonderful performer but that's history now and all the risk appears to be to the downside. Got to find what's next, that's going to do a MEL.

[winner69]

Things building up nicely for NZ Cup Day at Addington. Looks like the All Stars team will again be dominant in NZ’s biggest race.

Exciting times

And on same day Jeff will say Heartland heading to $80m profit for the year ....before many will shoot off to Addington

[Beagle]

No sure thing at Addington mate...but HGH on the other hand...

[BlackPeter]

AGM in 2 weeks (November 12th, 10 am, Chateau on the Park) in Christchurch.

I don't see currently a lot of controversial issues, but plan to attend. If you can't make it yourself but have a burning question for board or management - let me know, happy to ask ...

[Beagle]

AGM in 2 weeks (November 12th, 10 am, Chateau on the Park) in Christchurch.

I don't see currently a lot of controversial issues, but plan to attend. If you can't make it yourself but have a burning question for board or management - let me know, happy to ask ...

I have some but we better not go there as the PC police would be all over me. I'll send my questions by PM to you.

[winner69]

AGM in 2 weeks (November 12th, 10 am, Chateau on the Park) in Christchurch.

I don't see currently a lot of controversial issues, but plan to attend. If you can't make it yourself but have a burning question for board or management - let me know, happy to ask ...

Could ask them whose going to win the NZ Trotting Cup being held later in the day just of the road.