HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Beagle]

I wonder when Forbarr's next update will come? I have been at bit wary of Forbarr research, largely because they tend to come out in favour of all sorts of Dunedin based investment concerns that generally underperform. But the apparent misreading of the prospects of Heartland have certainly been a boon to Heartland shareholders who used the Covid shock to top up. Whereas the Forbarr research has been doubtful in the past, it does appear their research is now a strong countercyclical indicator. If research is almost guaranteed to be wrong, then that becomes very useful information for savvy investors. I think their research team deserves a pay rise to reflect their increased usefulness.

Jarden seems a bit all over the place of late, where last years pariahs become this years favourites. That isn't as silly as it sounds because overvaluation of previous favourites can indeed disqualify them as current investment prospects. Does 'strong self funded growth' mean that they don't see Heartland returning to paying dividends any time soon? If the asset base is not increasing and profits are, then that implies strongly increasing margins. That doesn't seem likely, which is why I am dubious about that $2.34 forecast. However, if dividend payments stop, maybe such a figure is on the cards?

SNOOPY

discl: Holding HGH at an average purchase price of $1.30 and not looking to increase that holding at current prices.

Just as well bloodhounds can think for themselves isn't it

I am very comfortable with my analysis and target price of $2.40.

[winner69]

Price is what you pay - value is what you want the spreadsheets/models to come up with

For what's it worth if I add in a hype factor my calculated price target is $2.57

[CROESUS U.T.]

Not unusual for one man's guess to be that much different from another - esp if both want the share price to go up

But to know who's the pump and dump, and who's the canny investor, aye that't the rub.

[nztx]

Price is what you pay - value is what you want the spreadsheets/models to come up with

For what's it worth if I add in a hype factor my calculated price target is $2.57

Agree in current conditions

Throw in a good results announcement, enhanced Div - then who's going to be a seller ?

Probably none who recognise they're then stuck with impossible task of finding better elsewhere ..

Yield & prospects potentially up markedly -- see demand growing & queue of buyers lining up ..

We know from looking at others how this likely plays out with a smallish quotient of 'respectable
targets investable' in the basket ..

[winner69]

Share price be over 2 bucks next week

[sb9]

Share price be over 2 bucks next week

That'll leave Forbar with a big egg on their face..

[sb9]

Its gonna be busy next two weeks for local bourse with HY results flooding in...

[iceman]

That'll leave Forbar with a big egg on their face..

More like an omelette really on their faces

[Beagle]

Got the Jarden report this morning, (thank you Jamie). At first glance their eps numbers for this year are in line with official company guidance and looking ahead they look very conservative indeed. Any profit upgrade next week will add to their valuation and in my view HGH can grow eps quite a bit faster than an average of 3% in the next 2 years.

Repost of earlier closing line "Applying the same average PE as is currently accorded the peer group I follow which is 16.3 a fair value case can easily be made up to 16 x 16.3 = $2.61"

That gives the potential of as much as $2.61 / $1.93 = 35% upside over the next year and Jarden are forecasting 8.1% gross yield for FY22 which is right in line with how I see it.

[winner69]

Everything going so hunky dory with a few stocks, as if nothing can go wrong

Hope punters brushing up on their capital preservation plans. ..in case they need to be enacted quickly