In fairness to Winner I remember him posting a chart a couple of years ago overlaying the GDT and share prices and the correlation was very good but since then lending to dairy farmers is a much lower percentage of overall lending so its only natural that correlation might start to break down a bit and perhaps a new correlation might emerge like the relationship of HG's share price to housing prices (seeing as reverse equity lending is now more than three times rural lending).
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
In fairness to Winner I remember him posting a chart a couple of years ago overlaying the GDT and share prices and the correlation was very good but since then lending to dairy farmers is a much lower percentage of overall lending so its only natural that correlation might start to break down a bit and perhaps a new correlation might emerge like the relationship of HG's share price to housing prices (seeing as reverse equity lending is now more than three times rural lending).
Still quite strong relationship - but as posted above (and like you said) milk prices have a bearing on economic growth - rising milk prices generally leads to higher GDP - and as Jeff says more profits for HGH
Mike2020 - haven't got 2014 data but dairy prices fell from late 2015 to early 2016 - as did the Heartland share price (130 to 110)
Always been fascinating tracking - and the directional nature of changes / trend is whats important - dairy going up for good for Heartland share price
If cricket is boring might update
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Still quite strong relationship - but as posted above (and like you said) milk prices have a bearing on economic growth - rising milk prices generally leads to higher GDP - and as Jeff says more profits for HGH
Mike2020 - haven't got 2014 data but dairy prices fell from late 2015 to early 2016 - as did the Heartland share price (130 to 110)
Always been fascinating tracking - and the directional nature of changes / trend is whats important - dairy going up for good for Heartland share price
If cricket is boring might update
I'm happy for you to be correct and sure you are. I may have been traumatised by the 2 low payout years so coat-tailing on a higher dairy payout and higher interest rates would be a just result.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Big increase in people costs (+16%) seems at odds with digitalisation strategy (".......digitalise each customer touchpoint, including its processes and customer care services, enhancing the customer experience and reducing operational costs.)
I am a customer for their on-call account (it's the best call rate going) and I have to say that their digital capability is incredibly **** compared to the major banks and even SBS and Rabobank. The legacy online banking platform looks like it was state of the art in the 1990s, complete with bizarre error codes with no English explanation when something goes wrong. The new app is a bit better but still really buggy. Over the last few months they have pushed numerous updates but Lord knows what they are actually improving/tweaking.
Originally Posted by percy
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(seeing as reverse equity lending is now more than three times rural lending).
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