Bizarre price action today. Perhaps some holders moving back into the large banks now (and were parking there money in HGH until dividends returned form main banks)?
The price started falling shortly after a Business Confidence report came out
Seems sentiment turned pretty negative in second half of March .....doesn't bode too well for future economic growth
Don't forget what Jeff says - where the economy goes Heartland goes
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
The price started falling shortly after a Business Confidence report came out
Seems sentiment turned pretty negative in second half of March .....doesn't bode too well for future economic growth
Don't forget what Jeff says - where the economy goes Heartland goes
These business confidence surveys never seem to match up with actual economic activity. In fact they seem to be highly correlated with who is in government rather than by actual economic activity estimates.
Business confidence at net -4%, while own business activity for those taking the survey is net +17% (in other words, business owners think the economy is going to suffer, but the outlook for their own business is doing great)
Last edited by LaserEyeKiwi; 01-04-2021 at 09:07 AM.
These business confidence surveys never seem to match up with actual economic activity. In fact they seem to be highly correlated with who is in government rather than by actual economic activity estimates.
Business confidence at net -4%, while own business activity for those taking the survey is net +17% (in other words, business owners think the economy is going to suffer, but the outlook for their own business is doing great)
Agree about the government bit ...but trends are important
Firms own profit outlook dipped below zero though
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
These business confidence surveys never seem to match up with actual economic activity. ..............)
Haven’t got a more updated version but this chart sort of says there is a pretty good correlation
Chart of GDP/ANZ Own Activity has much the same sort of shape ...but political bias / gaming the system is a bit more evident. In saying that declining confidence numbers generally lead to declining economic activity
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
Haven’t got a more updated version but this chart sort of says there is a pretty good correlation
Chart of GDP/ANZ Own Activity has much the same sort of shape ...but political bias / gaming the system is a bit more evident. In saying that declining confidence numbers generally lead to declining economic activity
thanks for that chart! I actually think that supports my original musings - that chart shows the correlation between actual economic activity and the "own activity" confidence metric (the one that is currently sitting at +17%), rather than the overall business confidence metric (the one currently sitting at -4%).
why does this forum make it so hard to display images without a click-through to another page? (other than Nic Cage GIFS apparently)
Last edited by LaserEyeKiwi; 01-04-2021 at 10:02 AM.
thanks for that chart! I actually think that supports my original musings - that chart shows the correlation between actual economic activity and the "own activity" confidence metric (the one that is currently sitting at +17%), rather than the overall business confidence metric (the one currently sitting at -4%).
why does this forum make it so hard to display images without a click-through to another page? (other than Nic Cage GIFS apparently)
This is possibly the most relevant part of all the stuff in that ANZ report
Doesnt look that bright
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
This is possibly the most relevant part of all the stuff in that ANZ report
Doesn’t look that bright
surprised at the services number being "par" as last year - presumably that includes tourism activities, rental cars/campervans, air travel, accommodation, restaurants/hospitality, conferences etc.
HGH well below 30MA and getting dangerously close to the 100MA
Hope April is better than MArch for the HGH share price
Chart is concerning, well below 50MA and only 20 cents above 100MA (which is also a horizontal support goings a ways back). The momentum traders will have their finger on the sell trigger. Todays candle with the long upper wick is not a good sign. Interesting that the recent high was only a smidge above the pre-covid high and still a long way from ATH. HGH falling out of favour again?
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Originally Posted by LaserEyeKiwi
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