HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Waltzing]

ANZ is has been a BUY for while now but CBA is the darling of the group.

Best to buy on the AUS market to take advantage of there AUS carbon climate position.

NZ banks will soon become subject to the hold excess capital requirements of the terrified RBNZ.

[SCOTTY]

Time will tell.
For me its a great hold for yield and steady growth in earnings and dividend's over the years ahead so I have no interest whatsoever in selling. The metrics are undemanding and financials' generally do well in a rising interest rate environment.

So when did you change your mind and start selling?

[Beagle]

A few days ago I reassessed the risk and reward of the market in general and rebalanced my portfolio with a much higher cash allocation. Still hold a good sized position in HGH. Its gradually got more and more clear as the weeks have dragged on that many Auckland business's are not going to survive this lockdown and there's less and less chance of any write-back of HGH's earlier Covid loan provisioning. If anything, I am wondering if its enough ?

What many who don't live in the Auckland region don't realise is that by the end of this week, in 2021 the Auckland region will have been locked down more weeks than not ! (21 weeks locked down, 20 weeks not). That brutal reality is really confronting as is the reality such an appalling situation is a real business killer ! What's even worse is that in the last week its become clear there is no early way out of this prison sentence as the numbers in the last few days have headed northwards. No way for others to truly understand how incredibly tough the situation is in the Auckland region without living it.

I read last week that over 13,000 business's shut their doors permanently in September, (just in that one month). Sorry don't have a link.

[iceman]

A few days ago I reassessed the risk and reward of the market in general and rebalanced my portfolio with a much higher cash allocation. Still hold a good sized position in HGH. Its gradually got more and more clear as the weeks have dragged on that many Auckland business's are not going to survive this lockdown and there's less and less chance of any write-back of HGH's earlier Covid loan provisioning. If anything, I am wondering if its enough ?

What many who don't live in the Auckland region don't realise is that by the end of this week, in 2021 the Auckland region will have been locked down more weeks than not ! (21 weeks locked down, 20 weeks not). That brutal reality is really confronting as is the reality such an appalling situation is a real business killer ! What's even worse is that in the last week its become clear there is no early way out of this prison sentence as the numbers in the last few days have headed northwards. No way for others to truly understand how incredibly tough the situation is in the Auckland region without living it.

I read last week that over 13,000 business's shut their doors permanently in September, (just in that one month). Sorry don't have a link.

Beagle are your numbers, 21 weeks and 20 weeks correct for Auckland ?

[Beagle]

Beagle are your numbers, 21 weeks and 20 weeks correct for Auckland ?

Opps sorry, it just feels that way. I've almost forgotten what its like to enjoy normal freedoms. I misinterpreted this article that said we'd had 20 weeks so far with no end in sight.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...7PRXPJ2FZMWTY/
20 weeks includes the weeks we had last year. My point about the effect on Auckland business's stands. The Auckland region has been the sacrificial lamb with its abundance of MIQ facilities for the rest of the country. Impossible to overstate what an exhausting thing one lockdown after another after another after another after another with no end in sight for this one is like. Its just drains your batteries day after day after day after...

I've always encouraged my clients to have money set aside for a rainy day but nobody ever expected it to keep raining like this. Those without extensive back-up resources will fail and the numbers who have done exactly that are already confronting and probably just the tip of the iceberg as most will be trying to cling on by their fingernails to any glimmer of hope they can see. Will HGH's existing Covid overlay provisioning be enough to cover expected losses in the Auckland region ? That's anyone's guess, I have no way of getting a read on that.
Maybe its good for HGH and will generate heaps more loan demand as they support Auckland business's through this like HGH supported dairy farmers though the dairy crisis ? On balance it can't be a good thing lending more money to troubled business's unless the underlying security value of the assets put up for security is rock solid.

[iceman]

Opps sorry, it just feels that way. I misinterpreted this article that said we'd had 20 weeks so far with no end in sight.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...7PRXPJ2FZMWTY/
20 weeks includes the weeks we had last year. My point about the effect on Auckland business's stands.

Thought so. Agree it is really bad for Auckland. Many Auckland businesses, business owners and residents in general must be going through hell with no end in sight !

[Beagle]

You're not wrong. You either have extensive reserves to weather this seemingly endless s***-storm or you don't. Thankfully I do but vast numbers don't.

Fortunately you can now catch up with a mate for a drink or two and a good chat so that's definitely a meaningful improvement on how it was just recently and helps to keep sane.

[SCOTTY]

Thought so. Agree it is really bad for Auckland. Many Auckland businesses, business owners and residents in general must be going through hell with no end in sight !

With vaccination rates up, abolishment of elimination, the prospect of no further lockdowns - maybe the worst is almost over.

[Cricketfan]

With vaccination rates up, abolishment of elimination, the prospect of no further lockdowns - maybe the worst is almost over.

Until the next variant...

[Ggcc]

Opps sorry, it just feels that way. I've almost forgotten what its like to enjoy normal freedoms. I misinterpreted this article that said we'd had 20 weeks so far with no end in sight.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...7PRXPJ2FZMWTY/
20 weeks includes the weeks we had last year. My point about the effect on Auckland business's stands. The Auckland region has been the sacrificial lamb with its abundance of MIQ facilities for the rest of the country. Impossible to overstate what an exhausting thing one lockdown after another after another after another after another with no end in sight for this one is like. Its just drains your batteries day after day after day after...

I've always encouraged my clients to have money set aside for a rainy day but nobody ever expected it to keep raining like this. Those without extensive back-up resources will fail and the numbers who have done exactly that are already confronting and probably just the tip of the iceberg as most will be trying to cling on by their fingernails to any glimmer of hope they can see. Will HGH's existing Covid overlay provisioning be enough to cover expected losses in the Auckland region ? That's anyone's guess, I have no way of getting a read on that.
Maybe its good for HGH and will generate heaps more loan demand as they support Auckland business's through this like HGH supported dairy farmers though the dairy crisis ? On balance it can't be a good thing lending more money to troubled business's unless the underlying security value of the assets put up for security is rock solid.

I do feel for businesses in general and landlords. Everyone has bills that need paying and mortgage holidays still mean the mortgage needs to get paid back. However businesses that closed down so quickly, were they ever actually viable? I find some businesses survive off the smell of an oily rag.

In saying that and I hope I sound kind with this little bit…… I have owned very successful businesses and had enough capital that I could survive for over 6 months without any injections. I always feel people draw too much money out of their business to maintain their lifestyle. If anything, businesses never learn to budget properly and I hope this is the catalyst required to make businesses owners wake up. Hopefully I am right.