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  1. #15391
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    Stop it you two. It's heading to the top of the loser board today.

  2. #15392
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old mate View Post
    Stop it you two. It's heading to the top of the loser board today.
    .....just starting to follow the global dairy prices down with the usual lag ..... dairy been down the last 5 auctions
    Last edited by winner69; 20-05-2022 at 03:03 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #15393
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
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    How much of their book is even related to ag sector?

  4. #15394
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    Yeah noticed that winner some big drops in some of those auctions too.

  5. #15395
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rawz View Post
    How much of their book is even related to ag sector?
    You’ve got to think outside the obvious …it’s not really about whether they have ag clients but the bigger picture.

    Dairy prices are one of the lead indicators for general levels of economic activity ….and as Jeff has often said Heartland’s fortunes are closely tied to GDP (and employment)

    one of the most ‘accurate’ economic forecasting models I’ve seen is one run by an investment manager called his 3 C’s Model ……inputs are Commodity Prices, Climate (soil moisture deficit) and Currency. Things are going to be good when the grass grows and producers are getting good prices and currency is favourable……and vice versa ."?like you’ve probably heard about the drought induced recessions NZ has every now and again.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #15396
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    You’ve got to think outside the obvious …it’s not really about whether they have ag clients but the bigger picture.

    Dairy prices are one of the lead indicators for general levels of economic activity ….and as Jeff has often said Heartland’s fortunes are closely tied to GDP (and employment)

    one of the most ‘accurate’ economic forecasting models I’ve seen is one run by an investment manager called his 3 C’s Model ……inputs are Commodity Prices, Climate (soil moisture deficit) and Currency. Things are going to be good when the grass grows and producers are getting good prices and currency is favourable……and vice versa ."?like you’ve probably heard about the drought induced recessions NZ has every now and again.
    Ah yes. Thanks Master Winner

  7. #15397
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Conjecture over on HMY thread that Heartland might have to face up to a $5m hit on their Harmoney investment when June numbers come out

    HMY share price down 40% since December 31st when Heartland last did a fair value number
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #15398
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Conjecture over on HMY thread that Heartland might have to face up to a $5m hit on their Harmoney investment when June numbers come out

    HMY share price down 40% since December 31st when Heartland last did a fair value number
    That will make HGH miss guidance I reckon ....Forbar target possible then ...

  9. #15399
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by alokdhir View Post
    That will make HGH miss guidance I reckon ....Forbar target possible then ...
    No worries alokdhir

    Still got that Covid cover in the bottom drawer ...... anyway Jeff will just report 'normalised profit' not counting any writedown

    Why show a big negative when its going to be a huge positive in a few years time
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #15400
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    Quote Originally Posted by alokdhir View Post
    That will make HGH miss guidance I reckon ....Forbar target possible then ...
    Remind me what was their target?

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