HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Muse]

Heartland's FY21 Real ROE was 8.6% (Nominal reported 11.9% less inflation 3.3%)

This year assuming a nominal 12.0% ROE and say 7.0% inflation the F22 Real ROE is 5.0%


If one assumes that Real PE ratios are reflective of company performance the Nominal PE (adjusted for inflation) should be lower than the Real PE

This nominal / real stuff flows through to PE ratios as well - which implies the PE of 15 HGH was trading on late last year should now be less than 10 --- meaning a share price of $1.60 is possible

Theoretical stuff so no worries ..... but ask your self why do PE ratios tend to decline in times of high inflation.

ha, top shelf theoretical stuff there winner. made my heard hurt as i tried to contemplate it

i resisted sharing this earlier in the year, but reading this and thinking through the 'doom loop' is another good way to give you a sore head
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...tyle-doom-loop

mark to market of bonds in a rising environment errodes capital and puts divies at risk, so the theory goes.

at some point you just cant see the wood from the trees if you think too much about these things. Banks a pretty good proxy for the wider economy. On my investment horizon, I know the economy will be substantially larger in 10 and 20 years than now, and so will earnings and the SP, and stop worrying about it. Plus, HGH a pretty nifty bank, excellent NIM as percy points out, and ROE. Even better.

[Snoopy]

OK then - Current NIM (H122) was 4.30%.

Last 8 years averaged 4.40% - range 4.33% to 4.5% ...the 4.50% a bit of an outlier

So Snoops me old mate - with the recent surge in interest rates what your reckon NIM % will be for F23

I am really just parroting stuff my broker told me a few months back Winner. Using actual figures and reality to shoot down my theory? What sort of a debating tactic is that?

The key to being a top class economist is being able to spin a good yarn. And the great thing about being an economist is that a few months down the track, no-one member of the public can remember what you said. So you just spin another good yarn, to remove any temptation for your client to look back at what you actually said 'back then''. Brokers often use the same tactic. The only problem there being that, if you listened to your brokers advice at the time and acted on that advice, then you do remember what your broker said 'at the time'! Poor brokers!

Fortunately I had already built up my HGH holding at a price level significantly below what the HGH price was when it came onto my brokers 'buy' list. So these HGH price fluctuations in recent months are not of much concern to me. To be fair I am not too worried about net interest margins either. If there is any pressure on interest margins Jeff will just record it as an 'extraordinary one off' and we will all be happy shareholders again. FY23 is many broker and economist forecasts away.

SNOOPY

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=winner69;961209]It all depends on how despondent punters are alokdhir ..... mood is such that maybe 190 is on cards next week

When Jeff gives them a comforting cuddle and hugs (ie a +ve report) they might feel a bit happier[/QUOTE

So if one is looking at a income stock for long term hold then its attractively priced now ...forget how much cheaper it can become ...then one should start accumulation ...as almost 9.5% Gross yield is golden in the long term ....unless people anticipate 10% or higher term rates ahead !!!

[Balance]

Sigh - one of the top broker picks for 2022 is struggling to find a floor.

All due to its shareholding & lending to Harmoney or expectations that loan losses are going to be really bad with the economy going backwards?

[alokdhir]

Another bad day for HGH ...

Calling experts to say something comforting for holders please ...

Is buying now is trying to catch ...Falling Knife

[Muse]

Another bad day for HGH ...

Calling experts to say something comforting for holders please ...

Is buying now is trying to catch ...Falling Knife

good article in AFR about bank wipeout in aussie yesterday
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-...0220609-p5asm2

[alokdhir]

good article in AFR about bank wipeout in aussie yesterday
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-...0220609-p5asm2

Jarden analyst yesterday said HGH is getting dragged down because of Aussy banks poor outlook ...where as HGH's outlook is not necessarily equally " BAD "

That gives solace that it will come back and this maybe opportunity to add some at very good yield prices

Its just over 9% Gross ...even better then GNE at SP of $ 1.92

[winner69]

Another bad day for HGH ...

Calling experts to say something comforting for holders please ...

Is buying now is trying to catch ...Falling Knife

Share price tied to how aussie banks are going ... doesn't really matter how HGH are performing .... even the might jeff can't move the HGH share price against these odds

Wait until the dust settles with those I reckon best bet

Maybe even get HGH for about 150 (or less)

[Balance]

Share price tied to how aussie banks are going ... doesn't really matter how HGH are performing .... even the might jeff can't move the HGH share price against these odds

Wait until the dust settles with those I reckon best bet

Maybe even get HGH for about 150 (or less)

No point going against the rip - float with it and wait until one hits calm waters. Conserve energy to swim back or call for rescue.

[alokdhir]

Share price tied to how aussie banks are going ... doesn't really matter how HGH are performing .... even the might jeff can't move the HGH share price against these odds

Wait until the dust settles with those I reckon best bet

Maybe even get HGH for about 150 (or less)

I hope its SP doesn't start reminding us about the story of two companies ...lol

But jokes apart ...Why its yield not cushioning its fall ...means Mr Market thinks yield is not sustainable ...Is it ?