One of the highlights of the results announcement was this bit - Five year total shareholder return (TSR) of 66.9%, (19 August 2017 – 19 August 2022) compared with the NZX50 Index TSR of 56.7% in the same period.
And a nice chart to give punters the warm fuzzies (did have different dates but who cares)
Share price down 16% since then
Suppose that would make the chart look a bit different .... and they might not have included it
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
that's a really interesting chart- i would have thoughts HGH would have outperformed much much higher.
As a shareholder for the majority of the time you are sitting in the red vs NZX50. Then only the last year or so you pass it and make a 10% better return.. Is that sufficient for the extra risk over 5 years?
now that extra risk is here in spades with the aussie expansion. Would want a higher premium than 10% over the next 5 years.
Maybe $1.55 is fair? what was that based on again? P/E or NTA ratio?
For rawz - did you see this post of mine the other day
Sort of answers your question (and the Aug 22 number is now different)
Ah yes. its really interesting ay. HGH and Jeff were masters of the universe!! but in reality you are better to just buy the market. Unless you want the dividend income
But if one had bought HGH say Feb 2020, or Aug 2020, or Feb 2021; based on the chart which would have allowed for a better return on capital by Feb 2022 or even Aug 2022?
But if one had bought HGH say Feb 2020, or Aug 2020, or Feb 2021; based on the chart which would have allowed for a better return on capital by Feb 2022 or even Aug 2022?
Indeed
HGH is a great trading stock (even though we are all traders at the end of the day)
The signal is often the valuation multiple - gets 'undervalued' / cheap + time to buy and gets 'overvalued' / expensive = time to sell
The HGH Price/Book ratio is a good valuation multiple to follow as chart below
And now is a pretty good time to buy
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
In case we overlook the obvious - Heartland (or our man Jeff) always does what he says he will do
Doubt if any have a guidance record like shown below
So in a years time we will be lauding NPAT of $114.1m or around about $114m
Impressive track record.
Looks like though, he has quite some wiggle room if he commits to an NPAT range without defining the number of shares which share the earnings - doesn't he?
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Looks like though, he has quite some wiggle room if he commits to an NPAT range without defining the number of shares which share the earnings - doesn't he?
That's right BP. EPS flat. And like Winner says Jeff is never wrong so we know its going to be flat 100%.
With coming recession and guaranteed flat earnings per share then i just cant see the point in buying now unless the SP goes down around $1.50.
Better to wait and see what happens. Could pick some up really really cheap like the covid lows type cheap.
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Originally Posted by winner69
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