HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Baa_Baa]

The TA on HGH is pretty awful, after busting out of a medium term down trend channel (which was encouraging) it collapsed back into it folding at the 100MA and is currently plumbing short term double bottom SP at $1.78, well under major MA's and firmly in a consistent SP downtrend. Supports at $1.72 (bottom of a major support band, imo), $1.65, $1.55. Who knows where this is going, but capital losses are far exceeding dividends in the meantime.

Recent commentary on banks excessive NIM's and forthcoming profit headwinds suggests a watching brief on the SP before committing any more capital. Long termers won't be too concerned with yields vs capital losses as they aren't selling and are probably still a long way ahead on capital value, but they aren't buying more either, at least until this down trend resolves.

[alokdhir]

The TA on HGH is pretty awful, after busting out of a medium term down trend channel (which was encouraging) it collapsed back into it folding at the 100MA and is currently plumbing short term double bottom SP at $1.78, well under major MA's and firmly in a consistent SP downtrend. Supports at $1.72 (bottom of a major support band, imo), $1.65, $1.55. Who knows where this is going, but capital losses are far exceeding dividends in the meantime.

Recent commentary on banks excessive NIM's and forthcoming profit headwinds suggests a watching brief on the SP before committing any more capital. Long termers won't be too concerned with yields vs capital losses as they aren't selling and are probably still a long way ahead on capital value, but they aren't buying more either, at least until this down trend resolves.

I was told that HGH becomes compelling value between $ 1.55 - $ 1.65 band ....Lets wait and see if it gets there . After $ 1.78 breaks down then action downwards will be faster !

[percy]

The market is seeing something ,neither I nor Craigs,Forbar,Jardens , Hobson Wealth,and HGH directors/management,have missed.?

[Rawz]

Nothing has changed with HGH’s long term story, I was actually thinking about the Aussie asset finance industry yesterday and there are some huuuuge opportunities for HGH over there on the commercial side (I.e not cars) as it’s dominated by banks and banks are not exactly fast and easy. HGH have so many growth opportunities it’s amazing really.

However in the short term… any recession or hard landing will damage the loan books, EPS growth is already confirmed to be zero next year and there is the overhang from the undersubscribed spp. how many applied for more thinking they would get scaled and now find themselves overweight and have to sell into a market that has had the demand for HGH shares filled by the raise. In the short term I can’t see any market or economic news helping the SP. HGH will just have to battle away for next 12 months

[RTM]

Nothing has changed with HGH’s long term story, I was actually thinking about the Aussie asset finance industry yesterday and there are some huuuuge opportunities for HGH over there on the commercial side (I.e not cars) as it’s dominated by banks and banks are not exactly fast and easy. HGH have so many growth opportunities it’s amazing really.

However in the short term… any recession or hard landing will damage the loan books, EPS growth is already confirmed to be zero next year and there is the overhang from the undersubscribed spp. how many applied for more thinking they would get scaled and now find themselves overweight and have to sell into a market that has had the demand for HGH shares filled by the raise. In the short term I can’t see any market or economic news helping the SP. HGH will just have to battle away for next 12 months

As long as they keep paying a decent dividend and don't go belly up, well, I'll continue to hold. Slow steady growth over years, not months works for me.

[Rawz]

Remember when this got to $2.60 earlier this year. wow what an outrageous high. 175% up from the covid lows. Very solid 21 month bull run.

Wonder where the outrageous low will be now that we are coming downhill? 30% down from the recent high, 8 months going.

[alokdhir]

Remember when this got to $2.60 earlier this year. wow what an outrageous high. 175% up from the covid lows. Very solid 21 month bull run.

Wonder where the outrageous low will be now that we are coming downhill? 30% down from the recent high, 8 months going.

As u said its a good company and has good prospects but it cant fight the current difficult conditions around its SP ...markets generally in poor state and it did a very hurried and investor unfriendly capital raise ...that was needed by some ill timed acquisitions ...when recessions round the corner , savvy managements dont become very proactive with inorganic growth ...but like many said Jeff is in a hurry to conquer the world or shall I say Australia ...So it will take a while in such market conditions for SP to recover ...it may end up testing new lows first as thats what market conditions are demanding ...nothing wrong with company ...just wrong timing maybe

[alokdhir]

" More capital

Fresh off the back of its $200m equity capital raise, Heartland Group looks likely to need even more capital if it goes ahead with its plans to acquire start-up Avenue Bank as part of its moves to have an Australian bank.
Jarden analyst Grant Lowe said its base case was that Heartland was sufficiently capitalised following its recent equity raise to deliver on receivable growth and net profit.
But he noted the company would need to raise a further $100m to $150m if it acquired Avenue Bank.
Heartland is in talks to buy Avenue - a move which would enable it to enter the Australian banking market and fund its business through deposits, a lower-cost funding model than it currently has.
The move would require regulatory approval, among other criteria, before it goes ahead.
Lowe retained an "overweight" rating on the stock but dropped his target price from $2.36 to $2.09 due to the equity raise and proposed operating changes.
Heartland shares have fallen by more than 20 per cent in the past year."

Jarden has reduced its price target and looking for new equity raise business ahead !!!

[percy]

" More capital

[FONT="]Fresh off the back of its $200m equity capital raise, Heartland Group looks likely to need even more capital if it goes ahead with its plans to acquire start-up Avenue Bank as part of its moves to have an Australian bank.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Jarden analyst Grant Lowe said its base case was that Heartland was sufficiently capitalised following its recent equity raise to deliver on receivable growth and net profit.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But he noted the company would need to raise a further $100m to $150m if it acquired Avenue Bank.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Heartland is in talks to buy Avenue - a move which would enable it to enter the Australian banking market and fund its business through deposits, a lower-cost funding model than it currently has.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The move would require regulatory approval, among other criteria, before it goes ahead.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Lowe retained an "overweight" rating on the stock but dropped his target price from $2.36 to $2.09 due to the equity raise and proposed operating changes.[/FONT]
Heartland shares have fallen by more than 20 per cent in the past year."

Jarden has reduced its price target and looking for new equity raise business ahead !!!

You omitted to mention that Jarden's new target price is $2.09 and one year total return,[share price growth plus dividend] is 21.6%.

[alokdhir]

You omitted to mention that Jarden's new target price is $2.09 and one year total return,[share price growth plus dividend] is 21.6%.

I just mentioned they reduced price target and gave full context and full quote from where I got that info ...also further raise possibility ...

Dont know how u found fault in that too ...lol