HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

the fact asx financials have rallied 10% since nov and hgh has not participated paints a very negative opinion on me. suggests some people know something we dont possibly.

Did somewhere here say they waiting for 135?

Heading that way

[Snoopy]

no one ever made challenger work.

....which is why Heartland got Challenger cheaply. And Heartland only need to make the deposit side work - which they have already calculated will be a better option than the wholesale funding lines they have already. The loan side of what will be the new Challenger bank is already working. I am surprised how little faith the forum contributors, the ones who presumably are non HGH shareholders, have in 'our Jeff''. They are trialng him via the court of opinion as though he was Amazon founder Jeff Bezos's miscreant cousin, 'Jeff Bozos'.

they have to do a big cap raise at some stage to further capitalise the bank when all the reg hurdles are completed. i think

Looks like around $NZ500m of Australian securitised borrowing is maturing mid 2024. New Australian equity needed to back new depositors funds to replace that amount of borrowing about $NZ50m-$NZ75m? Market cap of HGH currently $NZ1.05b. So new capital needed soon not really 'big bucks' in the grand Heartland scheme of things.

You worry too much bull.

SNOOPY

[mshierlaw]

Nicely covered the contingencies there Bull. You have worded your comments in a way that is impossible to disagree with. I think there is plenty in the public domain that can explain the share price performance though, including the possibility of the divie morphing into a dividEND. But maybe those that did not attend the AGM, er, to get a first hand run down of the hurdles, er, do not understand the Challenge, er, full situation?

SNOOPY

discl: a shareholder and a 'some person' (possibly)

dividEND ..... now that's something we have seen quite a few times in this market recently.

In HGH case there are no defined parameters in the current dividend policy to any give confidence dividends will continue at current level or indeed at all. Generally when we see dividend yields approach or exceed 10% this is normally due to a substantial reduction in the share price & yes thats the case here. Generally refered to as a "dividend trap".

With a downtrend still in play & an elevated divend at risk of significant cut back I will be keeping my hands in my pockets for now.

[bull....]

Did somewhere here say they waiting for 135?

Heading that way

im waiting for lower , looks like might get to 1.35 today

[Traderx]

Made a small initial long term investment in HGH today, albeit a bit nervous about current selling pressure/downtrend but didn't want to miss the opprtunity

- I like the strategy (digital first, best or only product particpation, then leverage those products into new geography)
- I like the long term CEO with reasonably significant shareholding
- I like the long term business performance history, and am hopeful that it is stronger evidence of worth of company than recent hiccups

Simplistically from these levels at ~$1.40/sh I see medium term 8% gross dividend and 5-10%pa EPS growth delivering say ~15%pa total returns plus potentially a 50% re-rate back up to 1.5x NTA (correction - not NTA but net assets) once outlook improves.

[thegreatestben]

I continue to hold my HGH which I've had since April 2020, I'm still above water on current SP and the gross divi yield is 11.50%pa and total return of 16.25% according to sharesight. HGH are taking some risks but there's plenty of skin in the game from management.

Not adding currently but would be hard to say no if we get closer to $1.30

[winner69]

Made a small initial long term investment in HGH today, albeit a bit nervous about current selling pressure/downtrend but didn't want to miss the opprtunity

- I like the strategy (digital first, best or only product particpation, then leverage those products into new geography)
- I like the long term CEO with reasonably significant shareholding
- I like the long term business performance history, and am hopeful that it is stronger evidence of worth of company than recent hiccups

Simplistically from these levels at ~$1.40/sh I see medium term 8% gross dividend and 5-10%pa EPS growth delivering say ~15%pa total returns plus potentially a 50% re-rate back up to 1.5x NTA once outlook improves.

Good plan traderx but I’d live up to your name and sell when it gets back to 1.5x Book Value …….then watch it fall back to 1x and repeat …… more profitable that way as Hgh has become a traders share ….but if you do it often enough still could claim to be a ‘long term investor’

[Rawz]

See UDC has bought BOQs NZ book for 0.9x book value. A fair valuation for this part of the business cycle..?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...IOSYIB23O6VTE/

UDC have been busy buying up small NZ finance books of late. Purchased an in house new car franchise finance book, then AA money, now BOQs NZ operations. Compare to HGH who have decided to go the Aussie route.

[850man]

Annual low today of $1.34

[bull....]

Annual low today of $1.34

should head lower after half yr im picking
should lower the div to pay for aus expansion