HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

Totally agree with this. Have thought for a long time that Heartland will be a $5 share in a few years.

Result announced this morning was very solid.

Company seems to be on the right track.

PS Would you rather buy Heartland or Fletchers?

Taylor talks about “legacy” issues …. Greenslade talks about “legacy” issues

And both do the normalisation thing

Hmmm

[Rawz]

I particularly like the HGH ambition of $200m NPAT for 2028

A few years ago punters could trust the $200m guidance. But maybe now questions get asked.. like the trust is gone.

Need Muse to recover from his bug to help unpack all this lol

[winner69]

A few years ago punters could trust the $200m guidance. But maybe now questions get asked.. like the trust is gone.

Need Muse to recover from his bug to help unpack all this lol

A challenge for Muse here rawz

Plot rolling 12 months Reported and Underlying NPAT and it looks like below ……with Underlying $20m odd more than Reported. Wonder what is Muse?

The Reported line looking a bit sad eh Rawz …. Methinks the market thinks the Underlying stuff is rubbish and they should be concentrating /valuing on the real NPAT….spooky that H1 NPAT was down 22% on pcp which is about what share price fallen over the last few months

[Rawz]

Why even give guidance for 2028? Who does that. It’s so far away. What’s it look like in the 3 years before that.

Also, what does EPS look like in 2028. How many shares to be issued to get Aussie humming. And how many shares to be issued to meet the capital requirements? I recall seeing a slide that said capital required needed to increase 400bp from todays level

[forest]

Why even give guidance for 2028? Who does that. It’s so far away. What’s it look like in the 3 years before that.

Also, what does EPS look like in 2028. How many shares to be issued to get Aussie humming. And how many shares to be issued to meet the capital requirements? I recall seeing a slide that said capital required needed to increase 400bp from todays level

I agree, 3 years ago in 2021 HGH had 583 million shares on issue, now approx 715 million. History would suggest more shares will be issue. Sadly smaller retail shareholders are unlikely presented with as good a deal compared with the institutions.

[alokdhir]

To me it seems like HGH is worth a bet now ...most likely we have bottomed already ...if not then soon .

If they can pull this off then SP can double from here by 2028 ...they looking for time to do the job ...thats why talking about 2028 eps ....by when all efforts would start adding to eps .

[nztx]

looks like stock being offered to buyers all day now with it being dropped from index in march guess it may continue

Do you see a $200m generating $5 plus SP bohemith in 4 or 5 years .. in this one ?

Let's face it .. what sort of Capital or Borrowing inflow would be needed to generate that sort of NPAT ?

Likely in the current high Interest times ? or maybe not ?

And to be worth $5 apiece, then it needs to behave like a $5 stock and generate returns or value usually attributable of a $5 stock .. that doesn't seem to be something similar to a share where the 5.5c Div has been slashed down to 4.0c and the recent share price trajectory resembles a nearby skislope heading down into the valley .. strangely enough the transition upwards between the two is not something that can be easily talked up and comes about through results and performance

What is a Cap Raise going to do to SP ? .. perhaps more of the past pattern which has it now at circa $1.20 ?

With a drop out of the index - what will excitement levels for taking up a fresh avalanche of HGH shares @ $1.00 or $1.10 look like ? Many takers .. or will they be mostly watching for signs of rapid elevation towards the $200m with no tricky downgrades first ?

Perhaps it might take '85c to clear the shelves' to get all the newly minted scrip into new homes

I mean heck if $200m NPAT was that easily attainable like a walk in a Christchurch Park, then why stop there ? Perhaps HGH should have a play at taking over one of the big Aussie major banks .. and stop stuffing around with smaller Aussie challenges

The target Aussie bank might even come to the party with a multi-billion high interest loan to help get the job of taking it out over & done with in a hurry too

The new shares to be issued for such an adventurous play may well have to be cleared out at 50c, but then 5 years down the track just may be worth who knows .. perhaps 25 ragged depreciated inflation torn Kiwi pesos apiece

[nztx]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/426935

Net profit after tax (NPAT) of $37.6 million. Underlying NPAT of $52.7 million.

NPAT decreased by $11.1 million (22.7%) and, on an underlying basis, decreased by $2.0 million (3.6%) compared with the six-month period ended 31 December 2022 (1H2023).

- One-off or non-cash technical items had a $15.1 million net impact on NPAT.

So if we eliminate the $15.1m One-offs, write-offs/downs etc - then would probably see $4.0 mil ahead


In times of rapidly increasing interest rates possibly would have expected considerably better as shown by the big Aussie banks. Like any bank, HGH probably know well how sting fairly hard at market interest rates on lending. Deposits coming in will all be eyed on the lending margins they can generate.


I wouldn't have expected to have seen this published in an NZX Announcement:

The arrears experienced in a subset of longer dated Motor Finance loans are a result of operational issues in Heartland Bank’s Collections & Recoveries area and do not reflect any underlying issues with the credit quality of the book. This is primarily a resourcing issue caused by illness, employee turnover due to overseas travel, and a focus on Heartland Bank’s core banking system upgrade (which is now complete). This is being addressed through a specialised recruitment strategy and automation. Underlying impairments are otherwise performing as expected given the challenging economic conditions. Heartland’s asset quality continues to shift towards loans with lower risk exposures.

NPAT circa $50m now - 4 years out $200m on the ambitious wishlist

What Borrowing & Capital base will it take to multiply what is HGH now, by a mere 4 times to see $200m in 2028 ?

Or just wishful ambitious dreaming ?


Is there a large trove of gold hidden in Oz under the vault of Challenger Bank no-one else was aware of ?

[bull....]

Do you see a $200m generating $5 plus SP bohemith in 4 or 5 years .. in this one ?

Let's face it .. what sort of Capital or Borrowing inflow would be needed to generate that sort of NPAT ?

Likely in the current high Interest times ? or maybe not ?

And to be worth $5 apiece, then it needs to behave like a $5 stock and generate returns or value usually attributable of a $5 stock .. that doesn't seem to be something similar to a share where the 5.5c Div has been slashed down to 4.0c and the recent share price trajectory resembles a nearby skislope heading down into the valley .. strangely enough the transition upwards between the two is not something that can be easily talked up and comes about through results and performance

What is a Cap Raise going to do to SP ? .. perhaps more of the past pattern which has it now at circa $1.20 ?

With a drop out of the index - what will excitement levels for taking up a fresh avalanche of HGH shares @ $1.00 or $1.10 look like ? Many takers .. or will they be mostly watching for signs of rapid elevation towards the $200m with no tricky downgrades first ?

Perhaps it might take '85c to clear the shelves' to get all the newly minted scrip into new homes

I mean heck if $200m NPAT was that easily attainable like a walk in a Christchurch Park, then why stop there ? Perhaps HGH should have a play at taking over one of the big Aussie major banks .. and stop stuffing around with smaller Aussie challenges

The target Aussie bank might even come to the party with a multi-billion high interest loan to help get the job of taking it out over & done with in a hurry too

The new shares to be issued for such an adventurous play may well have to be cleared out at 50c, but then 5 years down the track just may be worth who knows .. perhaps 25 ragged depreciated inflation torn Kiwi pesos apiece

good on them for having aspirations of 200m , but it be hard going.
hard slog at the moment for second tier finance institutions to get deposits same in aus so if challenger getting them they are doing something well ... what ?
if they do another cap raise dilution would mean even less dividends in the future without a increase in profits

days of being a dividend grower over ? for the immediate future one must wonder

[Rawz]

The Reported line looking a bit sad eh Rawz …. Methinks the market thinks the Underlying stuff is rubbish and they should be concentrating /valuing on the real NPAT….spooky that H1 NPAT was down 22% on pcp which is about what share price fallen over the last few months

Hey winner, don’t suppose you have the reported EPS chart. That would look even worse with all the shares being issued