HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Rawz]

Not much different to me posting a link to a paywalled article in say BusinessDesk is it mate

Headline said “Heartland says its targets aren't much of a stretch; analysts are sceptical “ says it all

Read between the lines and you’d say Jenny thinks target are doable.

You could always give Jenny a few Bob and read the whole thing …it’s actually very good piece

Bit different as you are not the author. But I know what you mean mate.

Hope I don't have to pay you for those cool charts and data you share in the future, same applies to the other guru posters here in this cool community

Wish Jenny all the best, not trying to be mean or anything like that. Its tough gig for NZs journalists right now, I certainly understand that.

[100101]

Thanks for the heads up to sell at $1.1 to buy at $1.
I guess most will have seen simply wall streets item
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated.

• 2024 revenue forecast increased from NZ$291.4m to NZ$294.9m.
• EPS estimate fell from NZ$0.132 to NZ$0.118 per share.
• Net income forecast to grow 24% next year vs 1.6% decline forecast for Banks industry in New Zealand.
• Consensus price target down from NZ$1.48 to NZ$1.43.
• Share price fell 7.6% to NZ$1.10 over the past week.

[ziggy415]

[QUOTE=winner69;1047927]Not much different to me posting a link to a paywalled article in say BusinessDesk is it mate

Headline said “Heartland says its targets aren't much of a stretch; analysts are sceptical “ says it all

I've got a stockco loan but I cant pay it back but your happy for me to sell some cows on this thread or perhaps you want to buy my tractor or advertise the missus looking for a new home....thin end of the wedge....soon we,ll be inundated with advertisers...hell sailor rob might sell a boat or two

[whatsup]

[QUOTE=ziggy415;1047950]

Not much different to me posting a link to a paywalled article in say BusinessDesk is it mate

Headline said “Heartland says its targets aren't much of a stretch; analysts are sceptical “ says it all

I've got a stockco loan but I cant pay it back but your happy for me to sell some cows on this thread or perhaps you want to buy my tractor or advertise the missus looking for a new home....thin end of the wedge....soon we,ll be inundated with advertisers...hell sailor rob might sell a boat or two

z415, townies just dont get it, agreed, back bone of the country in a tough enviroment, Buy retail, sell wholesale and pay cartage both ways !!!!

[Ferg]

Headline said “Heartland says its targets aren't much of a stretch; analysts are sceptical “ says it all

Read between the lines and you’d say Jenny thinks target are doable.

Interesting.....I interpreted the headline such that analysts thought the targets were a stretch, in other words they would struggle to reach their targets.

nxtz obviously loves the cryptic so I would be curious to see how he reads between the lines on that headline....

[Bob50]

Headline said “Heartland says its targets aren't much of a stretch; analysts are sceptical “

I thought this was a negative headline. However the analysts are sceptical of Heartland reaching its $200 million dollar profit- instead predicting they will only increase profits to more like the low $170 million’s.
i see this as positive- both parties predicting significant improvement from current levels.

Thanks Jenny I appreciate your input.

[Snoopy]

Interesting.....I interpreted the headline such that analysts thought the targets were a stretch, in other words they would struggle to reach their targets.

nxtz obviously loves the cryptic so I would be curious to see how he reads between the lines on that headline....

There is a lot of speculation here and in that other place, about the 'risks' Heartland are taking by expanding into Australia via Challenger Bank and Stockco. This seems to be coming mostly from non-shareholders who are overlaying historical tales of doom from other companies who have tried and failed to established themselves across the ditch, while conveniently ignoring the tales of those NZ companies that have made it 'over there'.

While I acknowledge that all change involves risk, I feel Heartland have been treading very carefully down their expansion path in Australia. In Reverse Mortgages, Heartland are no longer 'the new kid on the block'. They dominate the Australian market for unlocking chunks of capital from home equity, a market that the big banks have deliberately and purposefully shied away from. This isn't because it is a market not worth pursuing. It is because there are legal and financial implications that require a specialist advice team which is above the pay grade of the big bank branch staff. Heartland have ensured they have the back office support just right for this Reverse Mortgage product. The main competition in Australia is from government. But that competition is really tangential, as the Australian government is only offering income supplementation in their home equity release packages - not the big lump sums that Heartland can offer.

Unlike other 'new markets', the demand for the reverse mortgage product is not in question. Heartland are currently experiencing growing demand for RM in Australia in what is, for a niche market, nevertheless a large business landscape for a relatively small cap bank like Heartland. The Challenger Bank acquisition is all about controlling costs for a business that already exists. And all the pre-banking licence acquisition talk I have heard is that both the level of deposit taking and interest rates being paid are looking very promising in the quest to replace higher cost wholesale funding for the Australian arm of Heartland. I am less sure about the rebranding of 'Challenger' to 'Heartland Bank Australia.' If the Challenger brand in Australia has become toxic then it might be understandable. But this is an area where I have no knowledge. If it were me I would have saved the money on Challenger rebranding, and kept the Aussies happy doing business with their own known quantity 'local' bank.

Stockco, the rural fiance lender, have got themselves nicely embedded with Elders who are Australia's largest general rural retailer, filling much the same role that PGG Wrightson does in New Zealand. We can look at how PGW's own embedded 'GoLivestock' rural funding business is going as a clue as to how Stockco might perform. It is fair to say that while 'GoLivestock' is not spectacularly profitable in its own right, its role in keeping other parts of the PGW rural business empire's wheels turning is very significant. A genuine rural funder may actually benefit from tougher rural times, as conventional banks pull back on their farm lending, and the likes of Stockco become a 'funder of last resort'. That sounds risky. But businesses like Elders know their customers in a way the big banks do not these days. And if you support a farmer in tough times, you may find that your rural business lending with them blossoms in easier times. Some say that Heartland overpaid for Stockco. I can't really comment on that, except to say that when times are tough down on the farm, some of the earnings multiples for rurally based businesses do look eye watering.

In summary, what Heartland are doing in Australia is a 'cost out' exercise, for a successful business model that is already up and running. IOW the front end operational model already has the 'operating tick'. Sure it involves a capital injection up front to get financial critical mass. And yes, maybe Heartland should have timed their capital raising a little earlier (although there would have been risks in doing that as well, because the size of the capital raise required was not clear at that time). I am regarding the current capital raising as a 'vote' on the Australian business plan. Those shareholders who 'do not believe' should have already sold out. Those who 'believe' should fully back the cash issue and buy as many extra shares as they can for that 'rock bottom buck' price offer. Those non-shareholders on the sidelines should stop the silly whispering whimsical tales of doom and educate themselves as to what is really going on here.

SNOOPY

discl: enthusiastic HGH and PGW shareholder

[winner69]

Good overview there Snoops

Shouldn’t forget that what drove the NZ business years ago was when they got a banking licence and became Heartland Bank. Back then they even admitted it essentially was a marketing ploy as well as the means to be able to take more deposits

The new Heartland Bank is just that …history repeating …bank in their name and marketing as such to get more money from the public

[Snoopy]

Good overview there Snoops

Shouldn’t forget that what drove the NZ business years ago was when they got a banking licence and became Heartland Bank. Back then they even admitted it essentially was a marketing ploy as well as the means to be able to take more deposits

The new Heartland Bank is just that …history repeating …bank in their name and marketing as such to get more money from the public.

Yes, but with one slight twist in the tail. When the acquisition of Challenger has all the boxes ticked, Heartland will actually be an operational bank in Australia, unlike in New Zealand where they operate on a day to day basis under Westpac's banking licence.

SNOOPY

[Bjauck]

Not much different to me posting a link to a paywalled article in say BusinessDesk is it mate

Headline said “Heartland says its targets aren't much of a stretch; analysts are sceptical “ says it all

Read between the lines and you’d say Jenny thinks target are doable.

You could always give Jenny a few Bob and read the whole thing …it’s actually very good piece

If BusinessDesk themselves posted a link to their article it would be a free advert. If Heartland posted a link to their term deposit rates and applications it would be a free advert.