HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Lizard]

On the other hand, you have to bear in mind that at 49cps, the market looks to be pricing in either further substantial losses or additional dilution in the future, given that NTA is around 85cps (sorry, can't find exact figure). The deferred tax credit still adds 1.5cps to NTA. Forecast of even $4m NPAT for half year will still add another cent, presuming they don't pay a dividend.

By the nature of finance capital, isn't it likely that an equilibrium has to be eventually reached in the world of finance where returns on equity at least match one year interest rates (and most likely carry a risk premium to it)? For that to happen, either we see profits at a level that the gap on NTA will also close (giving the double whammy to the share price) or we have to see losses and a reduction in NTA. While they post profits, no matter how small, then I am thinking the first scenario seems realistic (over, say, 3 years).

[winner69]

So we agree it is a pretty hefty profit downgrade then?

Meaning what? All is still on track but real success for this very well run business is just that bit further away

Market probably like it though .... don't hold on too much longer Lizard

[winner69]

Bit ominious -- decliners list (1st half hour) led by ALF PPL and HNZ .... rest of table in green as the worlds problems have all been fixed again

What elite company HNZ is in ........ but then they say one swallow doesn't make a summer or something like that

[winner69]

Phew ... relief all round I suppose ..... out of the red

[winner69]

Objective achieved .... press only reporting HNZ profit being 'pruned' from $24m to $20m-$22m .... pretty good result seeing how tough the business world is these days .... well done

Like the head finance man admitting that becoming a bank was only a marketing ploy suppose even financial updates are sort of marketing as well

[percy]

[.... don't hold on too much longer Lizard[/QUOTE]

winner69.What do you mean.?Do you mean Lizard should sell? or do you mean lizard should buy.
Be careful other wise Lizard will think you still have "Bi-trendual tendencies."

[SCOTTY]

I checked with Heartland today. They confirm that the forecast does include the one-off deferred tax benefit.

[Lizard]

Objective achieved .... press only reporting HNZ profit being 'pruned' from $24m to $20m-$22m .... pretty good result seeing how tough the business world is these days .... well done

Like the head finance man admitting that becoming a bank was only a marketing ploy suppose even financial updates are sort of marketing as well

I was pretty disappointed with the way they handled that. I'm pretty nervous of any company that isn't straight-up in their announcements and reporting, and that one was a little on the borderline.... up until now, they've been pretty straight-up (with only a slight polish to the PWF acquisition outcomes).

Now I can understand, that given the fragile nature of a finance business at the moment, there would have to be a degree of caution - they probably couldn't risk the media jumping on the "downgrade" story too dramatically, especially given their business is now increasingly distanced from broker support and the associated "selling". We should all know by now how much of a "confidence" story finance is! (And the loss of broker support is more about incentives related to commission and regulation, than about sentiment).

But still counts as a strike.

"Three strikes and you're out" remains a good policy. (After that, "two years and a change of management" is the general rule before there's another chance...)

[winner69]

[.... don't hold on too much longer Lizard

winner69.What do you mean.?Do you mean Lizard should sell? or do you mean lizard should buy.
Be careful other wise Lizard will think you still have "Bi-trendual tendencies."

No bi-trendual stuff here percy ... clear as mud .... Lizard should be buying .... delay (or holding off buying) might mean missing out on the bargain price ... after all belg is accum and sucking up those that go on the market

[percy]

No bi-trendual stuff here percy ... clear as mud .... Lizard should be buying .... delay (or holding off buying) might mean missing out on the bargain price ... after all belg is accum and sucking up those that go on the market

Must admit I never had any doubts about you myself. !!!!
With you and belg's endorsement, we will all feel more comfortable,purchasing/holding HNZ.