HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

2012: 22m NPAT / 388m shares @ PE of 10 = 56c 2012 shareprice target ... Some upside ... also expect that NTA figure to be leveraged once the license is achieved and BUA sets in ... but then the history of "Pxx" related businesses is not that flash. discl: accum

Redo Belg numbers excluding deferred tax adjustment ----

Real 2012 NPAT $15m / 388m shares = 3.9 cents / share X PE 10 is 39 cents shareprice target - some upside from here?

At 49 on PE of just under 13 .... maybe about right using this form of valuation

[Lizard]

.... don't hold on too much longer Lizard

.... Lizard should be buying ....

Two seemingly opposing opinions in 8 hours. Clear proof that Winner is actually a female.

[SCOTTY]

Redo Belg numbers excluding deferred tax adjustment ----

Real 2012 NPAT $15m / 388m shares = 3.9 cents / share X PE 10 is 39 cents shareprice target - some upside from here?

At 49 on PE of just under 13 .... maybe about right using this form of valuation

You are onto it winner. You are looking at the normalised earnings projection - AS IT SHOULD BE.!!! Adding in a one-off deferred tax benefit is very missleading. As investors it is sustainable long term income that will "drive the dream".

Cheers

[winner69]

Surprised at the non reaction by the market to this latest guidance - though volume was quite high and the share price didn't go anywhere even though it was a good day for the market.

On 28/10 guidance still $20m-$24m (and if consitent to Annual Report excludes the deferred tax thing)

A month later an announcement after the market closes (and it wasn't even a Friday) says this is really $14m-$16m (exc deferred tax)

So over a month where has the $7m expected profit gone - 30% less - doesn't give much you the warm fuzzies they know what is really going on does it .... and Lizard talks about how important having confidence is

So $15m at this stage .... equity appears to be about $320m odd (if you can decipher an amended slide they put after the PWF deal was xompleted so may be completely wrong with this number) .... so ROE in the year after the year of transition is less than 5% .... who were touting 20% plus a while ago

Prob have not wasted my time going over the past few months presentations but all the pictures and pretty charts and what seems not so detailed commentaries just seem to confuse me.

No doubt they have a story to tell and they are doing a very good job in telling that story .... to have confidence in them as an investment I think you need to believe that story and go along for the journey .... but I sense that even the likes of Scotty is having some doubts

But it is disappointing to see that when the rubber meets the road the promises do not appear to being delivered ... at least this year

One last thought - the Annual Report guidance did not include the deferred tax thing but when they talked about it at the AGM it was included but they forgot to say so (at least in what was published) and then a month later did sort of say it was in the number and hoped nobody would notice .... ruins the story a bit eh

You guys have me interested but too much confusion and noise and things just don't seem to stack up for me to think this is cheap enough to put hard earnt cash into .... but will definitely include in the 2012 stock picking compo

[winner69]

Two seemingly opposing opinions in 8 hours. Clear proof that Winner is actually a female.

Know I know Goff feels .... god bless him .... quoting out of context ..... first was 'dont hold on much longer from buying' (maybe the on should have been an off) .... which means buy buy now ,,,, and that is consistent with .... 'should be buying'

Bugger - being so misunderstood like Goff is even worse than being bi-trendual .... next you guys will be ganging up on me and saying which part of BUY don't you understand ..... maybe Winstone (now he has 7 mates with him) will have to come up with something like that when they hock off the SOEs

Please don't pick on me .... sob sob .... you have ruined my day .... even John Key spoke to me nicely earlier tonight as he was heading off to Shed 5

[Lizard]

.... but will definitely include in the 2012 stock picking compo

Well that was all we needed to know!

(Oh damn, we still don't have anyone to run the comp.)

[percy]

Know I know Goff feels .... god bless him .... quoting out of context ..... first was 'dont hold on much longer from buying' (maybe the on should have been an off) .... which means buy buy now ,,,, and that is consistent with .... 'should be buying'

Bugger - being so misunderstood like Goff is even worse than being bi-trendual .... next you guys will be ganging up on me and saying which part of BUY don't you understand ..... maybe Winstone (now he has 7 mates with him) will have to come up with something like that when they hock off the SOEs

Please don't pick on me .... sob sob .... you have ruined my day .... even John Key spoke to me nicely earlier tonight as he was heading off to Shed 5

Pleased to see you have your "on" and "off" finally sorted.
No one here will ever try and pick on you !!! just trying to enliven our day.Need something with a 30% adjustment in nett profit.

[winner69]

Pleased to see you have your "on" and "off" finally sorted.
No one here will ever try and pick on you !!! just trying to enliven our day.Need something with a 30% adjustment in nett profit.

I'll get over it Percy .... just hope that zillions of HNZ NTA doesn't disappear like PGC managed to do

[percy]

I'll get over it Percy .... just hope that zillions of HNZ NTA doesn't disappear like PGC managed to do

No fear of that.

[Xerof]

No fear of that.

"killing you softly with their song"

sorry for the plagiarism Roberta Flack.......