HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[CJ]

Can I just ask those long on HNZ, do you guys see this as a really long term hold for your portfolio or are you looking toward some kind of exit point? For a while the mentality seemed to be that HNZ was significantly undervalued, and clearly a lot of that has been erased with the SP nearly doubling over the last 18 months or so. Thoughts?

It may shift from a value play portion to the yeild portion of my portfolio. At the moment, I see it as providing growth and yeild.

Re Team Percy vs Team Snoopy, I feel it is very unlikely the RBNZ would allow them to be paying dividends if their was going to be a capital crunch.

[percy]

I agree that having both sides debated in this thread has been good (thanks to everyone who has contributed). Worth pointing out though, that since I've been following HZX at least, the SP is up about 60% which suggests there are a majority following "Team Percy" . TNZ however, well that's a sure thing

Can I just ask those long on HNZ, do you guys see this as a really long term hold for your portfolio or are you looking toward some kind of exit point? For a while the mentality seemed to be that HNZ was significantly undervalued, and clearly a lot of that has been erased with the SP nearly doubling over the last 18 months or so. Thoughts?

Very much a very long term hold.
History has shown holding bank stocks to be most rewarding.
I think 5,10,15 years time I will look back and say, thank goodness I brought so many.I see them in the same light as EBO,MFT ,POT,RYM and SUM.
I think they are a never to sell share.Growing share price,growing dividends will reward us well.
Disc.Do not hold MFT.Sold to take up more HNZ.

[percy]

Yes there is definitely a place for a finance company called Heartland, RTM. The learners banking mask that the Reserve bank has loaned to Heartland should help bring in the much needed new supply of customer deposits. Whether Heartland succeed over the next five years, well let's just say that the next six months will be the most difficult time from a cashflow perspective.

Heartland look to be ahead of their own game plan selling down their troubled non-core profit portfolio. But are they just selling off the easy stuff first? There is no way to know.

Meanwhile governor Wheeler is saying interest rate rises are on the way. That means that Heartland will have to start paying more for new deposits while they are unable to pass on those higher costs into their existing longer term loans. That squeeze effect has to hurt Heartland shareholders in the short term. And we have to remember that Heartland are only just holding onto an investment grade credit rating. If Heartland slip just one notch to C+, will they still be able to call themselves a bank?

SNOOPY

Offcourse they are selling off the easy stuff first.
Increase interest rates benefit all banks,finance companies.
As Heartland borrow long,lend short,they are in the strongest position of any bank/finance company .

[K1W1G0LD]

Yes there is definitely a place for a finance company called Heartland, RTM. The learners banking mask that the Reserve bank has loaned to Heartland should help bring in the much needed new supply of customer deposits. Whether Heartland succeed over the next five years, well let's just say that the next six months will be the most difficult time from a cashflow perspective.

Heartland look to be ahead of their own game plan selling down their troubled non-core profit portfolio. But are they just selling off the easy stuff first? There is no way to know.

Meanwhile governor Wheeler is saying interest rate rises are on the way. That means that Heartland will have to start paying more for new deposits while they are unable to pass on those higher costs into their existing longer term loans. That squeeze effect has to hurt Heartland shareholders in the short term. And we have to remember that Heartland are only just holding onto an investment grade credit rating, and the rating agencies have given them a negative outlook. If Heartland slip just one notch to C+, will they still be able to call themselves a bank?

The question is not who will be 'right' about the fate of Heartland because the fate of Heartland is not predetermined. The question is who is better at assessing the potential risks and rewards and making an informed investment decision based on all possible future outcomes right now. Since Percy doesn't believe there are any risks he has already lost that battle by default. Of course that doesn't mean that Percy won't win the war and sail off into the distance on his Heartland retirement yacht. But just because Captain Percy in his bliss doesn't see any icebergs, that doesn't mean they aren't there.

SNOOPY

ICEBERG'S!!

This is'nt the Titanic Snoopy and I can't swim!

[Under Surveillance]

Whether Heartland succeed over the next five years, well let's just say that the next six months will be the most difficult time from a cashflow perspective. SNOOPY

In your assessments of cash flows, and imaginings of the needs for extra capital, what allowance have you made for HNZ shareholders subscribing to the dividend reinvestment programme and its discount?
The payout total for the current dividend is $9.7M. Should holders of one third of HNZ shares subscribe to the DRP, HNZ's share capital will increase by almost 10%.

[percy]

ICEBERG'S!!

This is'nt the Titanic Snoopy and I can't swim!

Last time iceberg's were spotted in NZ waters was a few years ago off Dunedin.
With global warming the danger has greatly demished.!
Wonderful sailing conditions forecast for a good number of years.
With such a strong crew, we welcome any wind shifts, and with the best tacking crew, we will be the fastest to take advantage of them. lol.

[K1W1G0LD]

Last time iceberg's were spotted in NZ waters was a few years ago off Dunedin.
With global warming the danger has greatly demished.!
Wonderful sailing conditions forecast for a good number of years.! lol.

Yes, I agree Percy, I think poor Snoopy is getting really confused now.

[percy]

Yes, I agree Percy, I think poor Snoopy is getting really confused now.

No change to his confusion. Has remained consistent ,since he first posted on this thread.!!!

[iceman]

Can I just ask those long on HNZ, do you guys see this as a really long term hold for your portfolio or are you looking toward some kind of exit point? For a while the mentality seemed to be that HNZ was significantly undervalued, and clearly a lot of that has been erased with the SP nearly doubling over the last 18 months or so. Thoughts?

Definitely a long term hold from me, barring any unforeseen circumstances, such as Snoopy's warnings. Bought a substantial amount for my teenage daughters last year with a 6-7 year investment time frame in mind. They've had great capital growth and I am happy that future dividends will provide a healthy return on their investment. My own shares also invested with a long term view.

Percy I am concerned about your global warming comments after reading this in the latest Time Magazine
"Increase in ice-covered ocean water since last year, leading some scientists to believe that the planet is actually undergoing "global cooling""

Now I wonder if Snoopy may be right about the icebergs

[percy]

Definitely a long term hold from me, barring any unforeseen circumstances, such as Snoopy's warnings. Bought a substantial amount for my teenage daughters last year with a 6-7 year investment time frame in mind. They've had great capital growth and I am happy that future dividends will provide a healthy return on their investment. My own shares also invested with a long term view.

Percy I am concerned about your global warming comments after reading this in the latest Time Magazine
"Increase in ice-covered ocean water since last year, leading some scientists to believe that the planet is actually undergoing "global cooling""

Now I wonder if Snoopy may be right about the icebergs

OMG.
Just as well we are sailing to warmer oceans.
lol.