HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

A share price going nowhere can be fatal - in a TA metaphorical sort of way.

If the price hangs around 85 or even worse drifts slightly to 83 to 84 one of Belgie's infamous death crosses will occur on the chart, invariably a bad sign.

C'mon guys, esp you who picked in the competition, get you act together and start buying before this death cross happens.

I expect to see some action from you guys soon .....needs to get to 90 and staying there for a while to be safe ....go on even enlist Snoopy to help out

C'mon guys

[percy]

The share price is sitting around the 50 day moving average,and above the more important 200 day moving average.
Just marking time until it starts it's next upward trajectory,which should be signalled by breaking 87cents.!!!

[winner69]

The share price is sitting around the 50 day moving average,and above the more important 200 day moving average.
Just marking time until it starts it's next upward trajectory,which should be signalled by breaking 87cents.!!!

MA50 is 85 and MA200 is 83 so not much in it Percy

Just asking everybody to help out to make the new trajectory start sooner than later ....wouldn't want a death cross would we

Note: would need to see 83 or less for a while to see that death cross though. Best form of mitigating that is to stop it happening so c'mon buy buy buy

[Snow Leopard]

MA50 is 85 and MA200 is 83 so not much in it Percy

Just asking everybody to help out to make the new trajectory start sooner than later ....wouldn't want a death cross would we

Note: would need to see 83 or less for a while to see that death cross though. Best form of mitigating that is to stop it happening so c'mon buy buy buy

I personally feel that the use of arbitrary number such as 50 & 200 for average periods carries no significance what so ever.

If you want proper meaningful death crosses then your periods need to be prime numbers, such as 47 and 199*, and obviously you need to have your doom confirmed by either the eruption of your local volcano (if using exponential averages) or Snoopy finally reading the HNZ accounts correctly (for linear averages).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*53 and 211 would be better for HNZ

[Snoopy]

Lets go back to the formation of HNZ.
Objectives:1] Obtain Bank licence to reduce cost of funds.
2]Concentrate on higher margin lending.
Outcome; Objectives obtained.!
Lower cost of funds with higher margin lending.
Heartland have a record of achieving their stated objectives.

There is some truth in a largely static picture not telling the full story. From page 9 of the HNZ FY2013 annual report.

"The Retail and Consumer receivables book was flat over the full year ended 30th June 2013, with motor vehicle receivables growth of $89.0m (+14%, up from from $636m to $725m) offset by an $88.4m (-27% down from to $327m to $239m) reduction in the residential mortgage book."

(note figures in italics added by me)

So while at a casual glance nothing much has changed from an asset perspective, that doesn't mean nothing has changed from a profit perspective.

I guess the question is how much growth can be squeezed out of a loan book that overall isn't growing? Perhaps quite a bit? And how does HNZ measure up against vehicle loans from the listed competition, DPC and TUA?

SNOOPY

[percy]

There is some truth in a largely static picture not telling the full story. From page 9 of the HNZ FY2013 annual report.

"The Retail and Consumer receivables book was flat over the full year ended 30th June 2013, with motor vehicle receivables growth of $89.0m (+14%, up from from $636m to $725m) offset by an $88.4m (-27% down from to $327m to $239m) reduction in the residential mortgage book."

(note figures in italics added by me)

So while at a casual glance nothing much has changed from an asset perspective, that doesn't mean nothing has changed from a profit perspective.

I guess the question is how much growth can be squeezed out of a loan book that overall isn't growing? Perhaps quite a bit? And how does HNZ measure up against vehicle loans from the listed competition, DPC and TUA?

SNOOPY

Heartland have already stated their profit for the year ended 30/6/2014 will be between $34 and $37mil.
Not a great deal more can be squeezed out of savings,so future profits for year ending 30/6/2015 will come from growth,but more likely, as they have indicated, from acquisition/s.
HNZ compared to TUA ? I can only speak for myself,I have sold my TUA.Thank you TUA for a great profit and wonderfull dividends.TUA yield now 6.15% compared to HNZ's 7.06%.
HNZ compared with DPC ? My research tells me DPC have to get a great deal more "runs on the board" than HNZ,so I will watch them to see how they go,but at this stage I rate them an avoid.

[percy]

I personally feel that the use of arbitrary number such as 50 & 200 for average periods carries no significance what so ever.

If you want proper meaningful death crosses then your periods need to be prime numbers, such as 47 and 199*, and obviously you need to have your doom confirmed by either the eruption of your local volcano (if using exponential averages) or Snoopy finally reading the HNZ accounts correctly (for linear averages).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*53 and 211 would be better for HNZ

As always Paper Tiger thank you for you post. 53 and 211 noted for HNZ..
On another thread KW gave great advice on timing entry and exit of shares.On shares KW held ,KW felt it paid to wait a few days after the 200 day ma had been broken as often the SP recovered quickly to be back above the 200 day ma.
With the latest announcement confirming they are on track,I think the interim, to be announced in late Feb , will also be positive.I am also looking forward to them making an acquisition/s ,which will project their future growth to new greater heights.

[Snoopy]

From page 9 of the HNZ FY2013 annual report.

"The Retail and Consumer receivables book was flat over the full year ended 30th June 2013, with motor vehicle receivables growth of $89.0m (+14%, up from from $636m to $725m) offset by an $88.4m (-27% down from to $327m to $239m) reduction in the residential mortgage book."

(note figures in bold added by me)

Continuing with my roll out of the comparison of vehicle financing across the NZ listed sector.

Heartland (vehicle loan book totalling $725m out of total retail and consumer assets of $988m) are a much bigger player in vehicle finance than Dorchester with a vehicle loan book of around 0.7 x $34m = $23.8m and Turners Auctions with a vehicle loan book of $22.4m.

So on an operating profit level, Heartland should be able to use their economies of scale and produce a superior operating margin, right?

Turn to page 33 of AR2013 for HNZ and there you find 'Retail & Consumer' operating profit of $35.687m. Divide that by the total assets of $988m and I get an operating margin for the 'Retail & Consumer' division of 3.6%. The overall asset value of loans in 'Retail & Consumer' has been largely static over the year. This 3.6% operating margin compares unfavourably with Turners Auctions at 4.5% and Dorchester Pacific at 8.1%.

I wonder why HNZ, with all their scale in this stated core business area compare so badly with their competitors?

SNOOPY

[percy]

Continuing with my roll out of the comparison of vehicle financing across the NZ listed sector.

Heartland (vehicle loan book totalling $725m out of total retail and consumer assets of $988m) are a much bigger player in vehicle finance than Dorchester with a vehicle loan book of around 0.7 x $34m = $23.8m and Turners Auctions with a vehicle loan book of $22.4m.

So on an operating profit level, Heartland should be able to use their economies of scale and produce a superior operating margin, right?

Turn to page 33 of AR2013 for HNZ and there you find 'Retail & Consumer' operating profit of $35.687m. Divide that by the total assets of $988m and I get an operating margin for the 'Retail & Consumer' division of 3.6%. The overall asset value of loans in 'Retail & Consumer' has been largely static over the year. This 3.6% operating margin compares unfavourably with Turners Auctions at 4.5% and Dorchester Pacific at 8.1%.

I wonder why HNZ, with all their scale in this stated core business area compare so badly with their competitors?

SNOOPY

Snoopy,
To save yourself,and us, a lot of time please ring either Jeff Greenslade 09 927 9149 or Simon Owen 09 927 9195 M 021 563 593.I am sure either, or both will help you.

[amalgam]

Realy appreciate all the effort involved in your Heartland research Snoopy..I am a bit lazy ( or probably incapable) of doing research to this level
All this information is dificult to find & helps build up an overall picture of Heartland.....a share which I do hold for its dividend & hopefully future growth.I have held Turners for some years..they have been a good solid performer, but have poor liquidity